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6-10-2007 @ 11:53AM
"This was enough to convince us that the loot drops were absolutely not random, because it was just too incredibly unlikely that in four months of raiding, we would be getting multiples of one class type of gear and sharding it, while our sister raid would be getting all of the gear that we weren't, and sharding it as well. If it were truly random, it would even out over time. But it wasn't. The discrepancies just got worse and worse."Just 4 months of raids? That's what, 20 or so runs? Now consider just one boss, that for simplicities sake has an even chance to drop a set item for any given class. Now the more likely result is you'll get a mix of class items but getting 20 priest items is still a possibility. Getting just priest and warrior items is even more likely. The chance of getting *no priest drop at all* in 20 runs is 7%. The same chance of rolling 1-7 on /roll and that happens all the time. Factor in the massive numbers of guilds running these raids and some of them are bound to get weird streaks.To extrapolate to real life: consider 'co-incidences' - things which seem to be really random events that you assume couldn't happen by chance, ie. you meeting someone and them having both the same first name and birthday as you. The odds of this one event happening are tiny, but given the billons of events that happen to us all across the world every second, the chance of at least one person experiencing an unlikely co-incidence is infact extremely likely! In WoW, the chance of your guild getting a really weird run of all the same loot is tiny. The chance of any one guild seeing this, out of the thousands that raid, is actually fairly high.
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