Player burnout and the next expansion
by Mike Schramm 
Sep 5th 2007 at 8:29PM
Hardcore Casual has a post up about his reaction to the news being released about the next expansion. As a player who left WoW, he's not impressed.Burning Crusade's effect on Blizzard's game was gigantic-- player who'd left came back in droves, and guilds and players who hadn't been playing together for a while all of a sudden found themselves online almost every night. And even out of the game, it had a huge impact-- Wowhead, the argument could be made, rode the wave of Burning Crusade, and it led them to their sale.
So the question now is: will WotLK have the same effect? HC says no-- he says Hero classes as hyped were much cooler than the way Death Knights are being implemented, and that the next 10 levels doesn't appeal to him. They do appeal to his father, he says, and there's no question that lots of players are interested in the next expansion. Who wouldn't want to fight alongside and/or against Arthas? This expansion might get players to connect with this universe in a way they haven't since they played Warcraft III.
Or it might be too late. Even Blizzard realizes the player base is headed for a rough patch-- they've started the Scroll of Resurrection program to bring straying players back with bribes. The game itself is far from over-- there is a significant core audience who still love this game (including myself), and can't wait to see WotLK. But the fact is that WoW may have peaked with BC. Even if there is a nice peak coming again with Wrath of the Lich King, all indications are that it won't be as high as the first expansion went.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Odds and ends, Blizzard, Expansions, Wrath of the Lich King
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Timothy Jaxon Sep 5th 2007 8:45PM
"all indications are that it won't be as high a the first expansion went."
Define your terms please. What 'indications' are you basing this opinion on? The blog author referenced in this article doesn't even play WoW anymore, so his point of view is suspect. Anything else?
Ollej Sep 5th 2007 8:57PM
All indications being that the player base has been in a decline for at least a month now (much sooner than was to be expected after the expansion release). Just the fact that blizzard implemented the Scroll of Resurrection program says that they realize that players quitting WoW is a problem and they need to do something about it.
And because players have left WoW after such a short time with the expansion, would lead one to believe that this would happen again after the next expansion, or that those players may not return at all for the next expansion, probably citing that this expansion didn't last long enough to warrant them buying another expansion and re-newing a subscription account.
Varja Sep 5th 2007 8:58PM
Firstly, WoW still has a massive playerbase. That isn't going to disappear soon - and some players will persist for as long as the servers are active, just like they do on Ultima and Everquest. So in many ways, they don't have to worry about burnout that much.
Secondly, I think Blizzard will need to change the way the game works to keep the majority interested - more casual content, more single player content, less repetitive content would all appeal to the wide audience. Just adding new raids every few months isn't enough, because at the end of the day, Raiders are a minority in the game.
Something like LOTRO's books system where new zones and content are added every few months would be perfect for WoW. And probably the best solution for burnout - continual new content will bring players back the same as the expansions do.
Rich Sep 5th 2007 8:59PM
If Mike's indications are the same as mine, it's friends, guild mates and other players we've interacted with. There was alot more buzz from the people I interacted with when TBC was announced. WotLK has been met more with "meh" reaction. The negative reactions to the WotLK have been its been that is more of the same. There isn't really anything new or exciting, save for the Death Knight.
Did WoW hit its peak with TBC? I don't know if it did or not. If it didn't hit the peak then it more than likely will with WotLK. Next year and the year after are going to see alot of contenders for the player base of WoW. They will put a dent into the population but probably won't be enough to dethrone WoW as the top MMO for awhile.
Coherent Sep 5th 2007 9:19PM
I don't think Blizzard has implemented the Scroll of Resurrection program because of current losses, I think they implemented it because of future competition. Several new MMO's are being released soon which may provide serious competition, and Blizzard wants to head them off. I know that I WILL be trying out Tabula Rasa for at least a few months.
But the source of this article is basically just being sour grapes. He's quit WoW, and he's finding reasons to beat up on it and predict its doom. Of course Blizzard has made a million glaring mistakes in the development of WoW. But the fact remains that it has still blown away the competition, and it will remain in command until the competition blows it away in turn.
WoW will remain in dominant until someone takes all the things that they did right and puts them into a new game that does even MORE things right than Blizzard. Shouldn't be too hard though. Blizzard showed a better way to pace MMO's.
Strong lore, interesting NPC characters and areas, less-is-more art style, easy pacing, meaningful quests and rewards, cool endgame areas... they did it better than anyone had before. But there's STILL lots of room for improvement.
Eugene Sep 5th 2007 9:21PM
Meh, as long as blizzard continues to focus solely on raids and guilds, I won't be back. Frankly, I don't have time to devote hours of gaming per night, per week to keep my status with a guild and there just isn't anything to do as for as solo play goes other than grind the battlegrounds over and over.
But frankly, dealing with the snowballs and all the 12 year olds in AV just made me hate WoW.
StoNe Sep 5th 2007 9:38PM
WotLK...meh
For me, spending two years as a lvl 60 made the journey to 70 all the more rewarding. IMO I can not be bothered going to 80 so soon. Also most BC players know the deal, the game gets reset with an EP.
Why bother getting lvl 70 loot? Why bother getting lvl 70 PvP gear? Why bother getting faction rep when they are not needed at 80.
It's too soon an djust because it's a new EP, that doesn't mean they should raise another 10 levels.
Also the game is 50/50 for PvP and PvE...no denying it, MOST WoW players will never seen inside BT, Hyjal or TK. There needs to be more 5 man content...come on, two weeks grinding Ogri'la rep or one weekend in AV....which has the better plate boots? :/
Marcelo Abans Sep 5th 2007 9:41PM
All indications being that the player base has been in a decline for at least... Well since every subsequent release of a new MMORPG since the release of WoW. Burnout? Yeah I am a bit doesn't keep me from playing because there is still so much to do and I'm in a raiding guild. Also The burn out the most people refer to in reference to "raiders" which is a small portion of the overall picture. Also they released the expansion which was the foundation of all this new content still to come out, more raids (10 mans), quests, gear events, Lore..
A lot of the people who have left the game are usually the ones that will never be happy with the game no matter what they do. "40 man raids is INSANE!" They knocked the higher raids to 25 and gateway raids at 10 man. So to say that blizzard has continued to focus on raid guilds isn't true. What would make everyone happen is solo-able end game bosses, stupid ridiculous damage with their class that can kill any other class and quests that yield massive amounts of gold.
If you think about it, if Blizzard has done anything, it' spoil their player base. A lot of these players seem to forget how much pointles grinding there was for sometimes years to hit the level cap on 1 toon and not to mention the raid content. The game has improved so much on what MMORPGs used to be and now it seems no one remembers that before WoW for some reason.
Thomas Sep 5th 2007 9:48PM
I was one of the people that had been on a several month break and came back shortly before the release of TBC. THe expansion managed to keep my attention from release all the way up until August at which point I decided to take another break... until I heard about WotLK. That was enough to make me think twice about it. Then I heard it isn't expected until May at the earliest. I immediately stopped my account. Personally I love the new content, new areas to explore, new items, quests. Even if its more of the same its still different enough to keep my attention. If Blizzard expects to keep the kind of subscription base they have now, they are going to have to quit making people wait years in between expansions. When they are bringing millions of dollars in subscriber revenue on a monthly basis they have more than enough money to have a large enough team to put out expansions on a regular basis. Two teams working on separate titles could each have two years to complete an addon and still be releasing a new expansion to customers on a yearly basis. Eventually people will just quit waiting around.
Ugkul Sep 5th 2007 9:50PM
I think the trend will continue, where there's a upsurge of subscribers pre-expansion release who play through to reach the new level cap, and then cancel after, only to wait for the next expansion after.
4STR4STALeatherBelt Sep 5th 2007 10:03PM
It's very simple really. Blizzard is going to have to accept the fact that the same thing over and over just isn't going to keep people playing. No matter how they enjoy the game.
Time and time again it's been suggested on sites such as WoW Insider and the official forums: We need more variety. We don't want yet more grinding for combat gear one way or another.
Give us a well executed (ie: Instanced) Player Housing system. Trophy display, extra space for banked junk, decorate according to our taste, etc. New profession possibility related to interior design/decoration.
Give us mini-games. Blizzard have shown they can come up with some cool stuff, such as the Mini Steam Tonks. They were simple and still based on the combat system, but damn they were fun! Card games, other gambling games, sports games, all converted and styled to fit in the Warcraft-verse (As Blizzard have done with numerous things)
Give us Naval content. This could well be an entire expansion here, and I'd sure as hell que to buy it if they designed and developed some really interesing new content related to Naval Warfare/Seafaring. Certainly opens up all sorts of new Profession options+links.
All I know is after 2 years of much the same, it's really becoming stale *very* fast.
Now to Blizzard's credit, WotlK does have some plus points. Northrend was always going to be an expansion just like Outland, I don't begrudge Blizzard that. It's an area a lot of players want to see, so a good choice. The PVPer side of me is VERY excited about Siege Weapons and Destructable buildings. All depending on how they're executed of course.
But again, it's mostly much the same as TBC. 10 more levels, more factions to Grind, more gearing up. Before we do exactly the same thing at level 80 as we did at 70: Either raid, PVP or a mix. Not much else to WoW really. And that folks is the problem.
Nasgul Sep 5th 2007 10:17PM
I think the point that everyone is missing is that the expansion is still a ways off, and we still don't know in full what exactly is going to be in it, I'll reserve judgement til it comes out, if it is more of the same then my account will go back on hold. But I don't see much point in saying that it's going to be dull, monotonous, more of the same, etc.; til I've played it.
Because in the end, whether my account is active or not between now and the expansion (which is what Blizzard should be worried about on a larger scale) I know that I will at least give it a try.
On the other hand, as I said, Blizzard really should take a deeper look into what people are doing in that dead time "between" expansions. Perk up the mid-level content, add mini-games as someone before me said, and in general, give us casual players something to do so we don't feel as guilty for banging out the last ten levels as fast as we could. Because it's not our fault, really. ;)
andrea Sep 5th 2007 10:20PM
Wow is still appealing to the casual market. Raiders, however, are the ones bailing, as well as pvp'ers, frankly, arena is a gimmicky joke.
With the introduction of other competitive games incoming, hardcore gamers are very likely to leave at least for a bit to try them out.
billy G Sep 5th 2007 10:46PM
I think that whenever a company gets big and fat off of a product, like Blizzard/Vivendi have off of WoW, they get complacent.
just look at Microshaft Suckdows, Companies are afraid to change up their winning formula until it's too late
IKT Sep 5th 2007 11:14PM
Looking forward to WotLK, I just hope I see Illidan in time.
Fletch Sep 5th 2007 11:21PM
Personally I quit because there's nothing to do at endgame except raid or arenas. Everything else is just an ugly grind. Blizzard has shown over and over again that hardcore raiders are the players that they care about the most and sadly I don't fit that criteria. Why are they even considering adding another 25-man raid when less than 1% of guilds have finished Black Temple (and less than 3% have even beaten the first boss)?
Oh, because Jeff Kaplan likes raiding and thinks everyone else should too. WotLK will be more of the same, I'm sure.
IKT Sep 5th 2007 11:31PM
@ 16 Everything else is just an ugly grind. - yep..... all 6 million 70's are just grinding.. the game is that dull..i'm emo..QQ..QQ..QQ.. oh gawd why won't blizzard listen to me *crys* ...
andywoho Sep 5th 2007 11:44PM
The news about WotLK still seems relatively fresh, and already, we've boomeranged around to burnout. Heh. Talk about news traveling at the speed of Internet.
But I digress.
Yeah. I heard the news about the expansion the day I hit 60. Of course, my first thought was, "Fuck. Level cap 80..."
I should have been excited, but I wasn't. TBC is fine, but the more things change, the more they stay the same. More escorts, more fetch quests, more drop quests, more kill quests...well, you get the idea.
I see burnout on the horizon. Nine million people can up and disappear relatively quickly if you give them something more exciting (game wise) to focus on. We have relatively short attention spans, after all.
Oh, and for the record, I'm saying WoW will go into decline after the release of whatever expansion take the level cap to 100. I think by then, it would have run its course, and players will say, "I've reached level 100, and I've had enough." It will become one of those, "Hey, remember when...?" jokes. (Ex.: "Hey, remember when we were all addicted to Warcraft...?")
StoNe Sep 6th 2007 12:05AM
@17
QQ...QQ...QQ...come up with something other than flames.
CVJ Sep 5th 2007 11:48PM
I am pretty sure expansions are for the players who will quit come back the month before the expansion to get used to the game again, they play level the expansion and exhaust the content they can in 3-4 months and then quit again, with the price of the expansion being 50 bucks and they play for 3-4 months they really made almost 6 months worth of revenue off 3-4 months of play time.
I really do not see someone playing this game from the beginning all the way through two expansions, Blizzard will get tons of new players when the movie comes out who will replace most of the burn outs.
Even in my guild who raided MC/BWL and such most of the new raiders in my guild never raided the old content and were new players.