Reasoning out 2.3 patch timing
by Mike Schramm 
Nov 6th 2007 at 2:02PM
Saupak has done about a good a job as I've ever seen of breaking down exactly when patch 2.3 might actually appear. There's a bumpy future ahead for the next two months-- it's full of holidays, vacations, and events, and so it'll be very interesting to see when Blizzard decides to insert Zul'Aman into Azeroth. Of course, the last patch dropped right when I was meant to be playing the just-released Halo 3, so there probably are no sacred cows-- Blizzard patches when they want to.However, there are a few hits. We know the patch isn't going live today. The 13th and the 20th are out, because Blizz wants to give us notice, and Thanksgiving is right around the corner. That leaves the last week of November, and the first three weeks of December (very unlikely that Blizzard would drop a patch on Christmas or New Year's, because they've got to take a break sometime). Other than that, we're looking at the 8th, 15th, or 22nd of January.
Saupak's big bit of reasoning is that there were 168 days between 2.0 and 2.1, and 126 days between 2.1 and 2.2, so his guess is January 15th for the patch-- 105 days between 2.2 and 2.3. But remember that 2.2 was delayed so long because of the sound engine problems, and we don't have that with 2.3. And Zul'Aman is more or less done. So if I had to guess, I'd say we're looking at an early December patch-- either the 4th or the 11th (we've got to see an update sometime then anyway, for Feast of Winter's Veil). If we don't see it by then, then yes, my guess is that we're looking at January. Blizzard may try to squeeze it out before Thanksgiving, but I don't think that's likely. I do think they want to release it before Christmas, though-- and leave 2008 for the year of the Lich King.
Filed under: Patches, Analysis / Opinion, Events, Blizzard
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Epiny Nov 6th 2007 2:05PM
Plus Season 3 wont start until 2 weeks after 2.3 is released. I read a blue say that at some point.
Aled Davies Nov 6th 2007 2:07PM
Blizzard have only said that they will give two weeks notice on the start of season 3. It possible that they will land the patch and on the same day giving the 2 weeks notice then.
My money is on the patch landing next week (the 13th) and Season 3 starting on the 27th.
Richard Nov 6th 2007 2:09PM
Mike, it's like you just link to things and never fully read it.
Blizzard was CLEAR that the only notice given was the 2 weeks for the end of Arena Season 2. NOT 2 weeks before 2.3.
They are also *on the record* saying that the start of Arena Season 3 may not coincide with the launching of 2.3.
Please pay closer attention. You're misinforming the readers.
Charlie Nov 6th 2007 2:09PM
How long was the AQ Patch of the PTR? That was probobly the biggest content patch before 2.3, so i figure they will take about the same amount of time on 2.3 on PTRs.
I'm just glad i didnt decide to save my arena points, it would have taken me forever to get my chest!
Rich Nov 6th 2007 2:14PM
My money is that patch is gonna drop on the 27th. I don't think it will drop next week and they are they aren't going to drop it 2 days before thanksgiving.
They are going to want to get ZA out before the holidays so everyone can tackle it while on vacation.
Combatc87 Nov 6th 2007 2:30PM
Yeah, Blizzard said they will give 2 weeks notice on season end, and they said 2.3 may not coincide with season 2, but they also said (and forgive me, I can't produce evidence) that they may, if needed, land season 3 earlier than 2 weeks notice, in which case they would make an announcement of such. So yeah, season 3 info will help, but wont necessarily dictate exactly when either will happen.
I'm putting my money on the 20th.
Acceptable Risk Nov 6th 2007 2:30PM
I'm not sure I understand why it can't just come next week.
They said they had 2.4 ready to roll onto the PTR as soon as they cleared 2.3 out. I don't know why they'd be devoting much time to 2.4 unless they've got 2.3 pretty well hammered out.
Plus they started pushing it to clients through the background downloader last week. They don't usually make a habit of doing that with two months still left before it goes live.
Salty Nov 6th 2007 2:38PM
IMO they should take all the hunter changes and engineering changes and hot-fix them into 2.2. Then all that other crap can happen whenever for all I care, lol. I certainly hope 2.3 goes live in November, and I don’t think that Blizzard plans patches around holidays. However, I think that Blizzard would want 2.3 live and functional well before Christmas, as that’s a busy sales season - I’m sure new players aren’t going to be very satisfied buying their game in the middle of patch mayhem, or deal with patch mayhem while they’re “figuring out” the game. I’m hoping no later than the first half of December. Otherwise I may just go to Home Depot and build my own Gyrocopter before my head explodes from anticipation.
hehe Nov 6th 2007 2:45PM
Yea, as people above have mentioned, you're a retard.
Also, the latest the patch could be released is December 18th, since they patch on Tuesdays, that's the last Tuesday before Winter Veil event begins on December 22nd.
2.3 contains all the Winter Veil shit, so they have to release it before then...
Warlock Nov 6th 2007 7:21PM
Yeah, the January thing is really stretching it. There is no reason this patch can't happen in December. Just because the other patches took a long time, doesn't mean this one will. I see absolutely nothing preventing an early December release, and that's my guess.
Of course, I do think the "two weeks notice" thing is crap (when do they ever do this?), but next week is way too soon if they are still making changes to the PTRs. The comment about Thanksgiving is really dumb though. Yes, the 20th is definately out, as they aren't going to do this right before a major holiday. But I don't know anyone who takes the week AFTER Thanksgiving off. There is no reason we couldn't see a 27th release. The question just remains if it will be done testing by then.
Sandboxer Nov 6th 2007 2:53PM
As others have already said your incorrect on your 2 week notice for 2.3 launch - that is only for season 3 which can happen on or after 2.3 launch.
I would also add that holidays are not blackout dates either. This game launched over the Thanksgiving holiday.
Moragaine Nov 6th 2007 3:00PM
Give us notice? Why on earth would they give us notice? They never have before..
Medros Nov 6th 2007 3:00PM
There will be no notice for 2.3. The notice mentioned in blue posts is for the start of Season 3, which *may* come at the same time as 2.3, but not necessarily. This is the big flaw in their logic. I figure this Tuesday, the week after next.
xGeneric Nov 6th 2007 3:08PM
December or January? lol! It's going to be November, and my guess is on next week(been thinking the 2nd or 3rd week of November for about a month now). Patch 2.0 was the BC patch... BIG BIG BIG. 2.1 Was from BC to BT, BIG BIG BIG and also clearing up issues that came with the expansion. 2.2 Was a major technical update, and when you wrap your game code around someone else's sound engine, and then have to update that engine, you're going to run into some problems, which is the cause for the long delay for 2.2
2.3 still has the big big big in it, but there's nothing technical about it, and they're not coming off the release of their first expansion. I'm sure planning the itemization for ZA was a bit easier than itemizing BT, as with BT they had to plan for item quality that would be seen in patch 2.4's Sunwell, and the next expansion. With ZA, they know they have to make the gear in a range between Kara and SSC/TK, there's not much future planning involved.
The majority of the content has already been downloaded, and right now they're just working on last minute class tweaks. I'd be surprised not to see it next.
Seriously, December/January?!?! lol.
Synergii Nov 6th 2007 3:24PM
2.3 releases next Tuesday. So much for speculation and logic. Blizzard releases patches when they're good and ready, and they're ready now.
LostOne Nov 6th 2007 3:26PM
My memory isn't the most reliable thing, but I'm pretty sure 2.0 hit right around/before Christmas last year. Holidays mean little to Blizzard. It would actually make sense to have it hit the week before Christmas, then Blizzard can let all their employees have a long Christmas and New Years break.
Rahrnok Nov 6th 2007 3:50PM
I think it's interesting that you mention that nothing is sacred in relation to Blizz releasing "when I was meant to be playing the just-released Halo 3". It makes sense for blizzard to release new content or new somethings at least as products that would be competing for your time drop. If they can keep you playing through the release of Halo 3, what can't they keep you playing through?
Scadam Nov 6th 2007 3:54PM
Blizz hasn't said anything about giving us notice, that's the arena season 3 you're thinking of and it isn't tied to patch 2.3. It'll be out within a week or 2, they don't push the content to pre-download unless it's close.
Mike Schramm Nov 6th 2007 4:24PM
Now now, folks-- my official guess is December 4th or 11th, but I'd love to see it before then (actually, I can see a good case for the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, but I don't know what Blizzard's vacay schedule is like). And January isn't my guess, it's Saupak's, so careful on calling me stupid for his guess.
timb Nov 6th 2007 5:44PM
Hmm, my bet is on next week, here's why:
The new TCG drops on the 17th, which includes 3 new loot cards. The models and scripts for these items are included in 2.3.
Simple, eh?