Patch 5.4 patch notes
Virtual Realms feature revealed
The Proving Grounds are coming
The latest patch 5.4 newsGame developer says WoW is wearing thin
by Amanda Miller 
Dec 18th 2007 at 6:38PM
Of course, if that were really true, developers of upcoming MMOs that will be in competition with WoW would probably not feel the need to claim it. Especially considering the latest push from Blizzard to add to its already massive 9.3 million active subscriber base using celebrity-hosted dynamic commercials, combined with the buzz for the upcoming expansion Wrath of the Lich King, it is doubtful that WoW will be going into decline any time soon.
In fact, Blizzard's parent company, Vivendi, has continued to show significant increased revenue that is attributed to the success of WoW. Its recent merger with Activision suggests that indeed, professional predictions by investors remain positive.
So why say it at all? Honestly, it's not all wishful thinking. If you head over to these "online communities" such as the official forums, unofficial forums, and even our own comment boxes here at WoW Insider, you will find no shortage of complainants.
After every patch, hundreds of players threaten to quit WoW if certain changes are not reversed, or bugs are not immediately fixed. Many players cry that game mechanics are imbalanced, they cannot fathom why content takes time to release, and they may even maintain that they personally know more than the average developer. There is even a coined word for the phenomena; trolling.
Given all of this negativity, it is easy to see how one could gather the impression that on the whole, people's satisfaction with the WoW gaming experience is waning. Unfortunately, people often head to online forums for one of two reasons; to complain, or to seek help. Once those who are not primarily motivated by dissatisfaction meet up with enough whining, insulting and grandstanding, they begin to go elsewhere. Tapping into these communities as a means to gain understanding about the health of WoW is therefore flawed.
Satisfied players tend to spend more time in positive communities that they have built themselves, including guilds, guild websites, and their blogroll. In fact, they even spend a significant amount of time actually in the game! Many of these environments may be private, quieter on the radar, and generally more difficult to find unless you are an insider.
It is also important to note that any other MMO, once it gained enough ground, would likely engender a similar amount of negativity in related online communities. Although the initial excitement and newness of it all would see players reaching out to one another through forums and other means to connect in positive ways, once the dust had settled, and the game became established, the comments, complaints, and general noise would start up. Unfortunately, trolling cannot be avoided by producing stellar content; it is just something that some people feel the need to do, regarding any subject, all over the web.
What do you think about Bylos' comments? Do you feel that WoW on the whole may be losing some of its oomph, above and beyond the population of nay-sayers and the normal, unavoidable number of players who do choose to leave the game? Do you think that WoW has staying power that will carry it through the shiny, flashy, newness of upcoming MMO content?
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Blizzard, News items, Interviews, Forums
Reader Comments (Page 3 of 6)
me Dec 18th 2007 8:08PM
Funny if you take all the above comments about how well WOW is doing so well and wont die and and replace wow with EQ, you would have seen the same discussion 4-5 years ago.
All MMO have a shelf life like it or not.
My personal feeling is blizzard stopped being inovative before bc was released.
The norm is regurgitating old content and mechanics.
The seasonal events are pretty much a joke.
99% of outland you cant tell winterveil is even taking place.
Lets toss a few christmas tree's in Shatt and call it day.
Samenjas - WildHammer Dec 19th 2007 1:37PM
Not to go all RP on you or anything, but Winter Veil is an Azerothian holiday, and Outland != Azeroth. Holidays are not the same from country to country, and I expect if we ever find intelligent life on another planet that they would have different holidays from anything on Earth.
oddsphere Dec 18th 2007 10:46PM
Most of the ppl who complain about wow are the SAME ppl who have nothing better to do than to bitch and moan about nothing. Most post are posted by the same lamebrains that troll forums all day and have to have their opinion validated by other forum trolls.
Michel Dec 18th 2007 8:48PM
just trolling
In my own guild I don't see people wanting to quit wow.
they just like wow, the game is fun and have good artwork direction.
but, they will not quit for "an other fantasy game"
they are for a lot of them, "casual", they just want a game with new thing regularly
but they still have not the time to play games and games and do betas and so on...
to replace wow, you juste NOT NEED wow bis !
you need the Next BIG THing, something so easy, so great, so beautiful,so fun, so everywhere ! than people use their free time in that.
for now, it's always wow.
and even if you think of "hard core gamer", the new mmorpg are just that "new mmorpg". they are wow, with new high-end technology stuff, but they lacks the coherent artwork , the huge world inside and the myriads of details.
Lotro had the lore, the artworks, the books, the movies and so on but NO. because everything of that was denied . they did not have right upon the dozens of years of arts (alan lee, john howe paints, movies musics, and access to some less known part of Tolkien books).
They needed to _recreate_ everything. to drop everything was familiar of players of the old roleplaying game, to people watching the movie, to even old book-fan dreaming with the landscape painting of Alan Lee.
It's time consuming, they're in fact creating a "new" middle earth and so they have not the money and time to create the whole community and communication of Blizzard.
I'm certain if they did have all right of Tolkien inc, New Line, Weta artworks and did build upon that, Lotro would be a huge success.
"buy the new dvd movies and continue the adventure in the game". "read the book and found it also in the game" and others way to sell it. You don't find that because they can't. it's totally different products, productions and copyright.
Starwars could be huge success. it's well known, creators can take from the movies, new movies, comics, the roleplaying game and so on, but NO. because sony busted that.
Blizzard controls all its creations. it shows.
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in fact, a new "hugely popular mmo" has to be everything MORE than wow. and it needs a lot of money.
it needs 5 to 6 years of hidden development.
it needs a company building slowly a game, a world, a intellectual proprietary thanks to others game _first_
Wow was in fact started while Warcraft 3. it show everywhere : years of stories, well defined arts and a polished game, websites, forums and network from _start_.
even before the 5 years of specific development of wow.
---
the day one in France or Germany, _Everything_ was translated ! everything even the damn hotline and technicals forums ! it was very important to the success of the launch.
so, you can't expect a mass game as wow to be defeated by simply a new kid on the block. not tabula rasa or conan.
--
you should expect to see that from a HUGE company making _slows_ steps game after game, products after products leading to the Mass Media Gaming : a mmo where everything is combined.
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or.. like I said first : the Next Big Thing : something totally different and crazily fun.
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if you are a hard core gamer, you will have Great new games every year. but we are not speaking about a new "massive popular online game" then.
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some japanese company could be well positioned to emulate blizzard but, thanks to USA companies, japanese ones don't understand or don't need to do global market.
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to summary : you can't create "the new wow" if we are just one little company _AND_ without an already existing good Intellectual Property.
MartinC Dec 18th 2007 9:11PM
To all competitors to WoW: Less QQ, more PewPew. Make a game that actually has a chance against WoW, then we might listen. Otherwise, quite your whining.
As for the tv commercials, Blizzard isn't doing them because they are losing customers. Lrn2Holidays. People are more likely to buy during the holidays, thus the marketing departments target to that. Plain and simple.
Dave Dec 18th 2007 9:14PM
I'm not sure you really understood the point of what he was saying, and it's the same thing every other MMO developer has been saying for well over a year now: WoW is doing nothing new.
You have a game with popular momentum, which isn't necessarily the same thing as being popular or innovative. It has the appeal that the most people are playing it, therefore it has to be worth playing right? At some point the numbers become more significant than the lack of quality in a game. He also mentions that WoW could lose half their subs and still be the biggest game around. Entirely true! However, the threshold for success in the MMO world isn't measured in the millions. It's measured in the hundreds of thousands. A tiny, tiny chip off the rock of WoW to say the least is enough to make a small company with a single MMO very profitable and sustainable. LoTRO has done quite well so far, and they're not even to half a million. Lots of older games are going strong with 100,000 or less subs as well.
It's not about the hypothetical 9 million accounts. (and Blizzard never really clarifies if they're all active simultaneously... or how many of them are owned by gold farmers) It's about the fact that WoW is getting kinda stagnant and the expansion promises absolutely nothing but more of the same. You're going to get 10 more levels, some new raids that most people won't experience and a new BG or two. Treadmill, over and over again.
At some point that's going to wear out. Even Hero classes aren't gonna change it... since they're just "different" normal classes as they didn't want to make them too powerful. Yay.
i like WoW a ton, but to say that it's some invulnerable Ivory Tower of perpetual MMO-ness is kinda foolish and shortsighted, especially in the video game industry where you're only on top until that one "killer" game comes around. it took a good while before Half-Life killed the Quake world, but it happened and it did it so thoroughly that the sequels were terrible. It'll happen to WoW if they don't come up with something awesome before someone else. (and maybe it's Conan, probably not... but it'll happen..)
kr3wman Dec 18th 2007 9:18PM
Too bad Blizz never really gave up on one of their games...
kr3wman Dec 18th 2007 9:21PM
Argh...my computer messes up the reply stuff...It should have been at Cunning B
Perrins Dec 18th 2007 9:29PM
will WoSC
World of StarCraft
override WoW??
not blooody likely. yeah they got issues in WoW but so does every other mmo out there. look at galaxies. it was great till they nrefed the whole darn thing. what about Matrix Online. it was awful till the fixed all the bugs but that didnt resolve all the issues they had. WoW just gets so many more complaints bc its so huge. its like comparing Disny land to your local amusement park. which one will register the bigger complaints?
supersaint Dec 19th 2007 2:24PM
While it's true that nothing lasts forever, I see WoW being the top MMO for at least 3 more years. Until someone comes up with the next innovation and stops trying to copy WoW, they will just be chasing.
Markymark Dec 19th 2007 3:17AM
The only reason WoW has lost its luster is because its been out for a while now and almost every mmo that has come out claiming they will top WoW has not seen that much sucess. WoW is a great game, it has its flaws but what game doesn't. It sure has outlasted its shelf life.
NeuroMan42 Dec 18th 2007 10:37PM
WOW has been in decline. Yes... they have sustained numbers but have just lost players to new ones. Overall, I personally lost interest in WOW after two years... most MMOs have a normally two/three year cycle of of sustained numbers before players get bored and move to other options. I know of several WOW players that ONLY play it till something more to their liking comes along. Nautre of the MMO market really... been going on since UO and will continue to do so.
hpavc Dec 18th 2007 10:42PM
Of course WoW needs to improve its product and freshen it up. Kudos to Conan for understanding this, though *snort* I wouldn't look to them for much else in terms of inspiration.
One of the issues I see with WoW that holds them back is their inability to widen the world. A lot of the other game worlds are much much bigger. WoW is such a small map at times in comparison.
A game like LOTRO for example brings that to mind, though to hell with load screens. Never want to see a load screen unless its instance related or major travel. The ability to go from lights home to booty bay on foot is quite sexy
Rene Dec 19th 2007 6:59AM
A "small" map is not necessarily bad. There may be MMOGs out there that have a huge map, but what's the point of it? It totally destroys the "massive" aspect, since you never actually meet someone! There just aren't enough people playing these games. Even in WoW, with a huge player base, I sometimes play in totally deserted areas. Been to Silithus lately? It's like playing on your own server, you're pretty much alone with the mobs, because most players go for the "newer" content (which is partly the reason why Blizz changed most lowbie group quests to solo quests). It's unlikely that this is different in other MMOGs, so you'll have this feeling much more often in their "bigger" worlds. I this context I think I prefer a smaller map.
Xiphus Dec 18th 2007 10:56PM
I say the main problem about the game is that the balancing is centered around the QQs. In fact, those who visit the official forums tend to find themselves unable to enjoy the game due to the overwhelming QQs brainwashing them.
Two ways to stay satisfied and maintain the luster of the game:
1. Avoid the forums as though it is a leper.
2. Get rid of the forums altogether, or place in a much stronger moderating force. The place is as bad as 4chan in terms of troll population and these trolls would chase away those who initially love the game. They should be culled off ASAP.
Number 2 ain't going to happen anytime soon, so we should follow Number 1.
Ian Dec 18th 2007 11:02PM
i think its still got a ways to go. there are still people playing D2, WC3 and Starcraft, so in my opinion, i don't think WoW will ever, not be a big contender in the mmo's out there. But, as Scoottie basicly said, "WoW has a good 2 years left maybe 3 if they upgrade the graphics engine slightly with WotLK" i agree in the sense that it will see a longer life if it gets its graphics upgraded, but i feel that he scimped on the estimation In my opinion, i'd say 4 to 5 years kind of how Everquest lasted a long time, because games that set out to be "the WoW killer" is going to pull a Hellgate: London and crash and burn because of too much hype - people's expectations will get too high because they feel it will be an extremely good game if it's being claimed "The WoW killer" and nothing will begood enough to please them.
kind of long winded but im tired, sorry :P its 12:30 where i live.
theRaptor Dec 18th 2007 11:14PM
I have to laugh. "competitor says the main competition is starting to lose, news at eleven". I would agree that the gameplay of WoW wears thin, it is largely the same gameplay that goes back through EQ and UO and decades back to primitive RPG's. Blizzard have never been know for creating astounding new types of gameplay. They take existing game ideas and polish them till they are so good that you can play them for years. It is like chess, if the underlying game is good you can play it forever.
billgates Dec 18th 2007 11:21PM
Age of Conan's success depends entirely on the penetration of broadband internet into trailer parks
Savant Dec 18th 2007 11:26PM
Is WoW losing its lustre? Of course it is. Do people really think that this game will stay 'new and original' forever? Even the original half-life, which some argue is the one of the best games of all time, couldn't stay on top indefinately - regardless of many mods and expansions.
Think of Wow like a rocket. It blasted off with a bang, and now it is starting to lose velocity. This is why Blizzard is working hard to maintain their forward momentum. (The various campaigns like Scroll of Ressurrection, the TV commercials etc. )
There is NO game that will continue gaining subscribers indefinately. There is a finite number of gamers that will play this genre of game, once they saturate the potential subscriber base, the game will decline.
It's for this reason that Blizzard is likely planning a 'new' game that is markedly different from WoW as a means to maintain their cash flow. While WoW declines, the new title will buffer the impact.
The big tell-tale sign will be when their subsciber base starts to shrink. While it hasn't happened yet, I do suspect they are not gaining nearly as many people as they used to.
Chris Dec 18th 2007 11:46PM
Traditionally, MMO's have replaced MMO's - but I think we're in uncharted territory here. The sheer size of WoW and Blizz's profound lead in the industry suggests to me that only the improvement and reinvention of World of Warcraft ...will succeed WoW as we know it today.