Drop rates surface on 2.4 items and substances
by Eliah Hecht 
Mar 31st 2008 at 9:40PM
- Shattered Sun Supplies have a 10% chance to contain a Badge of Justice
- Wretched Fiends and Wretched Devourers each have a 30% chance to drop Mana Remnants for "Arm the Wards." Though this is probably reduced a bit by players who kill the Wretched without having the quest, I think 30% is close to the true drop rate (based on my own observation).
For comparison, I checked WOWDB and Thottbot. WOWDB gave 9.2% for the Badge, which is similar, and 98% (!) on the Mana Remnants, which is clearly wrong. Thottbot says 9% on the Badge, and 27% on the Remnants.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Tiforix Mar 31st 2008 9:52PM
I guess I've been fantastically unlucky. I've been doing dailes on three different characters, and have received probably 20-25 of the supply bags in total. So far, I have zero badges.
Eliah Hecht Mar 31st 2008 10:03PM
Well, the chance of not getting a 10% drop with 25 tries is 7.2%. A bit unlikely, but not statistically significant (at the typical .05 level), and not really fantastically unlucky. Just...fairly unlucky.
Zarzuur Apr 1st 2008 6:58AM
Me too! Got supplies over several alts, but no badge yet.
Kaeb Apr 1st 2008 12:18PM
I have 1 lvl 70 character, doing 3 supplies per day. I've pulled three badges so far. Thanks for your part in the law of averages. I'm sure benefiting! :)
G Mar 31st 2008 9:51PM
I can see how the Mana Remnants drop rate could be easily skewed. Sometimes I get all 4 in six kills, sometimes it takes more than thirty kills. It's odd. Complaining about it in guild chat immediately improves the drop rate, of course, as with all quests.
Thundarius Mar 31st 2008 10:37PM
The first supplies reward I got from 2.4 (the day 2.4 was released) was a badge so I immeddiately got hooked on doing those specific dailies whenever I could. Since then I've received 2 more badges and only missed out on doing dailies once. So at the moment I'm sitting at 1 badge every two days.
Only 194 more days to reach 150 badges :)
Xeren Mar 31st 2008 10:40PM
What about patch 2.4 drop rates of primals? People seem to think the drop rate of primal water has gone way down- at first I thought it was just because everyone was out doing the new dailies, but primal fire and air's price at auction hasn't gone up at all while primal water's has gone up like 50%, so I think something has changed.
Def Wolf Mar 31st 2008 10:58PM
I have to agree that fishing and getting motes of water has went down. Now I am lucky to get 1-3 in a twenty minute span as opposed to getting 4-12 in the same time frame in Zanger. Maybe I was just lucky but it happened on a regular basis for me. Then again I have also been lucky enough to get 4 of the vendorfish in the same span, lol.
Stormsurge Mar 31st 2008 11:53PM
The Nether Residue is a pain to try and get for a miner. I wish every node had at least 1 residue in it.
alienatheart Apr 1st 2008 12:02AM
i still havent got a badge from the supplies bag :( and i have dont the dailies since it started
atla Apr 1st 2008 3:18AM
Got already 3 badges in 4 days, but not more than one each day (doing all daily quests).
Leaves me now at ~330 badges :D need to farm more karazhan this week ;) and of course doing all the dailys
Its acutally quite awesome getting badges out of a 5min daily quest and also getting around 15g doing it. Doing the Nagrand quest at 6AM is like 3 minutes of work
Dabura Apr 1st 2008 10:12AM
LOL. Bullshit is the Badge drop rate in the supplies 10%. Many of my friends have had zero and we all have had more than 10 supplies, meaning we should have had 1 by now, yet some people get 3 in a day, so I highly doubt the rate is 10%
Eliah Hecht Apr 1st 2008 10:03AM
Actually, the odds of not getting a 10% drop in 10 tries is (1-10%)^10, which comes out to 35%. Hardly impossible.
The odds of getting 3 in a day, assuming you get four supplies, is much lower -- 0.2% if I'm calculating correctly -- but that means you should still expect it to happen to people once in a while.
Big Guns Apr 1st 2008 7:33AM
"The Nether Residue is a pain to try and get for a miner. I wish every node had at least 1 residue in it."
Totally disagree with this. With most nodes you get around 3 hits and that is 3 chances at a nether residue without having to move. I in fact have gotten 2 off the same node. Whereas a herbie has but one chance a residue per "node". Like wise a skinner. Miners have it best IMHO.
Tank Apr 1st 2008 10:07AM
@11: I dunno that may be true but the drop rate on the residue is absurdly low. Farming 2 stacks of adamantite a day as well as doing the netherwing ore quest every day, and it still takes 2 days to complete it? Not much of a daily if it takes more than a day.
First day I got 2 badges on my main. I've done those quests every day on my main and every other on my alt. Haven't seen any badges since those first 2. Also have guildies who have yet to see a badge. Unless my guild has horrible luck I'd guess the drop rate is 5% at best.
Aigarius Apr 1st 2008 8:06AM
The residue has a higher chance of occurring in higher level herbs/ores/skins.
The numbers for Mana Remnants might be screwed by the PTR where the drop rate was almost 100%.
Sizzor Apr 1st 2008 8:56AM
I received 2 badges yesterday and 2 badges on Sunday.
There has been only one day i haven't got a badge since Tuesday. I guess i got luck on my side lol
M.D. Apr 1st 2008 9:58AM
The Nether Residue collection drop can feel pretty heavily randomized. One day I got all 8 residues before my other OL dailies were even close to done, out of about 15-20 ores (not thwacks, ores; have several times gotten 2 out of one node). Then the next day I had finished my dailies and still sat at 5 residues. Ended up puttering around for ages thwacking nodes. That day took 50-60 ores before I got the 8 residues.
On the bright side, ended up being a good day for blue gem drops from prospection...
Tulkas Apr 1st 2008 12:11PM
I'd love to see the new drop rates on blue gems out of mining nodes, particularly nethercite. Over the past two days running Netherwing dailies, I'm up 13 blue gems -- a few others in the area seem to be having the same luck.
Shadowink Apr 1st 2008 12:39PM
30+ shattered sun suplies so far and 0 bagdes .. bad luck ftl =(