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4-29-2008 @ 8:45PM
I think that you need a cap to the number of attempts, otherwise you need a very large number of attempts for the 10% or whatever to appear. If you do it for infinity then you should be sure of 10%, but for this to occur in 40 or 50 tries seems a bit non-random. I think Blizzard is checking to see how many are dropped over a number of attempts and smoothing it out by providing extra drops if you don't get it in a reasonable number of attempts.
4-30-2008 @ 12:07AM
I would hope Blizzard doesn't add drops to atone for low drop rates, no matter how unusually low it may be.First off, the Law of Large Numbers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) guarantees that, over time, random variables (such as the 10% drop rate of the Badge) will maintain a stable percentage at or very, very near the expected probability.Secondly, you know they wouldn't "remove" any Badges if the drop rate suddenly spikes to an unusually high level, so why should they arbitrarily add Badges if the drop rate goes low for a period of time? This is, of course, assuming a valid random number generator. Seeing as how we pretty much trust the /roll function, there's no reason to think that Blizzard adjusts things when we don't see the random number displayed in the chat log.
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