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4-30-2008 @ 4:47AM
@#4: You are nearly correct. If you open 30 Shattered Sun Supplies you have a ~96% chance of getting *at least one* badge.On the one hand, humans are very good at seeing a pattern where there is none (I didn't get any badges this week at all! The drop rate is messed up! Idol of the Avian Heart has dropped 5 times in a row from Moroes! The drop rate is messed up!). This simply isn't accurate. As the article suggests, a drop rate is a probability, not a certainty. The probability of getting a perfect distribution of loot (say, one each of Herod's Shoulder, Raging Zerker's Helm, Scarlet Leggings, and Ravager) in four runs of Armory is actually quite small - about the same as the probability of getting all four drops the same. Yet when the loot distribution isn't perfect, we notice.On the other hand, anecdotal evidence with some drops - the ones I've noticed are the Crusader pattern, Various BoP recipes, and any rare 1x quest drop, especially the Creeper Ichor for the Elixir of Suffering quest - suggests that the loot *isn't* normally distributed - i.e. the game isn't rolling a "dice" when a mob dies with a X% chance of it dropping the item. Typically the variance is unusually skewed - you'll either get the Crusader pattern on your first kill, or you'll spend a *long* time grinding for it. That suggests to me that rare drops are spawned randomly based on real time (like mobs, gathering nodes, etc).It might be that one could predict the drops of, say, the Crusader pattern in the same way that one used to be able to predict the spawns of Kazzak in Blasted Lands.Of course, you'd need an overwhelming quantity of statistical evidence for that to be anything but conjecture.
4-30-2008 @ 6:35AM
I've started to see patterns where there are none on the Attumen loot table, after killing him each week for 3 months the Worgen Claw Necklace finally dropped the one night we entered the instance 30 minutes early. Coincidence? Well of course it was, but through those 3 months I had to try hard not to imagine someone or something hated me.Perhaps seeing patterns in random occurances is the root of superstition? Has anyone developed any WoW superstitions to ensure "that loot item drops", like always take 40 manna biscuits, always enter the instance at the same time, etc?
4-30-2008 @ 9:33AM
"On the one hand, humans are very good at seeing a pattern where there is none"This is exactly what makes 50% of the comments on Thottbot useless.That being said I've done the daily quests since around 2 days after 2.4 came out. I have never received a badge.
4-30-2008 @ 4:02PM
Yes, DaCamper - actually WoW players (and MMO players in general) have come up with a wide array of absurd superstitions. The Deadalus Project actually did a study of these a while back. It's a hilarious read, to see what people will sometimes insist makes their loot drop better:http://www.nickyee.com/daedalus/archives/001554.php?page=1
4-30-2008 @ 8:37PM
I once got four crusader drops in two hours while farming for runecloth. True story. I win at statistics.
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