EA: You don't need $1 billion to compete with WoW
by Mike Schramm 
Aug 29th 2008 at 2:00PM
We'll be realistic here: we don't think anyone believes, including EA, that WoW's numbers are attainable for another MMO coming out this year -- even Blizzard believes that eventually WoW will go by the wayside, but as Jacobs says, anyone releasing a game today isn't just competing with WoW, they're competing with WoW and Burning Crusade and Wrath of the Lich King. And no matter how long your development cycle or how big your budget, you can't compete with three years of people working around the clock to make the game better for live players.
But EA does want to be successful, and Jacobs says success for him would mean upwards of half a million players. Six months from now, he says, if Warhammer is folding servers and not adding them, the writing is on the wall. There's no reason to think that will be the case, of course -- Warhammer looks like a great game led by one of the biggest publishers in the world supporting one of the best MMO developers, and it's about as close to guaranteed a success gets in the MMO space. But even Mythic would say WoW stands on its own -- while WoW is running, it's highly unlikely we'll see any MMO come anywhere near its 10 million total subscribers.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Economy, Expansions, The Burning Crusade, Making money, Wrath of the Lich King
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 5)
kabshiel Aug 29th 2008 2:07PM
I really don't think we're gonna see anyone seriously challenge WoW until the next generation of MMOs. Just like nobody beat EQ until they released EQ2, nobody's gonna beat WoW until WoW2. It's just too big and entrenched at this point.
F0REM4N Aug 29th 2008 5:47PM
I can see a future, perhaps a year or two from now where WAR will be a very strong #2 in the market. I think tehy should be very excited about their prospects after extensive hands on time with WAR. I'm thinking 3-5 million subscriber like numbers.
Prophetik Aug 29th 2008 2:10PM
WAR is a ton of fun...in fact, i canceled my WoW account, at least until LK comes out. I'm sure I'm not the only one. Also probably the reason Blizz bumped up the news of Patch 3.0.
Discograndpa Aug 29th 2008 5:39PM
What you stated appears to be true.
Unfortunately, I believe Blizzard might be overreacting.
While WAR's pvp is excellent, their PvE content is lacking.
Vice-versa goes for WoW.
WoW was a game centered around PvE that had PvP tacked on, and, well you get the idea.
I loved the time I spent playing WoW, but it appears to me that Blizzard is losing touch. Rushing a patch in order to "compete" with another MMO that isn't really competing is foolish.
Blizzard has had plenty of time to fix their PvP, and make it more than honor/marks grinding and an imbalanced Arena system.
I liked my time with PvE in WoW, unfortunately, I just didn't have the weeknights to give up for months on end just to kill a boss that's been farmed by high end guilds for years.
If Blizzard loses anything, it'll be the people who enjoyed the old AV, and world PvP in Hillsbrad. Battlegrounds are a joke. EOTS was merely a mash up of WSG and AB. Most, if not all sense of accomplishment for regular PvPers has been lost. Working hard in BGs is pointless, because people just don't care anymore. Av is an honor farming/afking festival, and people form LOSING premades for the other battlegrounds to get their marks. They can add seige engines, and all the crap they want to Lake Wintergrasp, but it won't change the fact that PvP in WoW is broken.
I had fun with WoW at one time, but unfortunately it appears that Blizzard is preparing to break the game even more to compete with a game that really isn't competing.
Jay Aug 29th 2008 2:11PM
I remember not too long ago about how AoC was gonna be a WoW killer. Yeah.
Willias Aug 29th 2008 3:09PM
AoC sucked in beta. I was shocked at how many people were saying the game was fantastic when the game went live. Made it very tempting to buy it. :/
WAR, on the other hand, seems to be pretty good from what I got to see during the preview weekend. Back when EverQuest was still "big" (500,000 big, not WoW big), Dark Age of Camelot was the second place MMO for quite a while.
I see WAR fitting in the same place. Will it overthrow WoW? No. It will do far better in the PvP department though, and that alone will set it up with a good subscription base.
my2cents Aug 29th 2008 7:22PM
As I remember (could be wrong though), the talk of AoC potentially killing WoW was fairly minimal and came mostly from AoC fanboys, many of whom hadn't even played it yet.
The WAR speculation is coming from market research, preorder sales, and overall positive reviews of the beta. However, still not many (other than WAR fanboys) are calling it a WoW-killer. The concensus seems to be that WAR's future as the new mmo king is questionable, but that it's likely to be one of the more successful mmo's to come out since WoW.
I would bet on at least 2-3 million subscribers within a year or so, assuming they don't hit any major snags with the release. I seriously doubt it's going to top WoW though anytime soon. Then again, who knows? Guess we just have to wait and see =P
Rihlsul Aug 29th 2008 2:12PM
You allude to 3 years of development (for live players) right after referring to WoW, TBC, and Wrath. The reader could mistakenly think you mean Blizzard has only invested 3 years. Just a little muddy there.
But, yeah, not only are we talking the several years WoW (plus expansions) took to develop, they built on the shoulders of 3 former complete games (with 2 expansions). That's no small mountain to climb.
Rich Aug 29th 2008 2:46PM
Mythic are not noobs when it comes to MMO development. Their experience with DAOC probably helped them to learn a few things about running an MMO. Plus you seem to think Warhammer is a completely new IP. It has 20+ years of background, lore and active fanbase to support it. If any MMO IP has a chance against WoW it's WAR. The only way it will flop out of the gate is if Mythic fubars the experience.
PeeWee Aug 29th 2008 7:01PM
Decades of history, lore, fanbase in the millions and an awesome universe didn't help Star Wars Galaxies. It was still a shitty game.
I do hope WAR turns into a great game, a true competitor to WOW. In the end that could make WOW even better.
Barnister Aug 29th 2008 2:14PM
I sincerely hope Warhammer NEVER, EVER reaches WoW sub numbers.
Becaus then it's all the way downhill with quality. Be it the community or the game itself.
Discograndpa Aug 29th 2008 5:49PM
Also, Mythic doesn't have official forums. Although it sounds like a crazy idea, it really isn't. Take a look at the WoW forums, then look at a Warhammer forum like Warhammer Alliance, an look at the difference. The WoW forums have become a breeding ground for trolls, and there's hardly any community to speak of.
By letting players police themselves, Mythic can stop by to receive feedback, and inform the player base of their plans.
Most people aren't aware that the moderator's of the WoW forums are what they're title states: Community Managers. Glorified babysitters of the WoW community, who can hardly give out any real answers, unless it's been approved left and right.
I feel that Mythic is onto something, but i severly hope it doesn't do as well as WoW, because as you stated, it's all downhill from there.
Maz Aug 29th 2008 2:16PM
WAR's going to rape WoW of its PvP center.... The Scenarios (BGs) and RvR (World PvP) are more engaging than what WoW has to offer.
The only people who're going to be sticking with WoW are the raiding community, maybe the casual non-PvPers and your eSport monkeys.
Even with the amount of content that was gutted for release (in theory, it will be added and that actually gives Mythic things to focus on per content patch, instead of WoW's WHOPPING 2 PATCH A YEAR cycle), the game is very playable and very enjoyable.
The fact that tanks have support abilities and player collision exists adds a new dynamic to the game, where to succeed you actually have to overpower a tank and healer (which is doable) to obtain goals. I played a Chosen during the PW weekend and holding a bridge against 7 people was awesome. They eventually wore me down, but that's not the point... time was bought.
If anything, WAR is going to force WoW to rethink its PvP approach. No offense, but arenas are retarded.
Tridus Aug 29th 2008 2:28PM
I wonder if its considered okay to say that I hope exactly that happens, because I agree: arenas are retarded.
Of course I say that as a raider who wants a PvE focused game, and not World of Arenacraft. If all the PvP vanished from WoW tomorrow, I'd be happy.
Alchemistmerlin Aug 29th 2008 2:43PM
So what you're saying is that WAR is going to take every aspect I dislike about WoW (PvP asshattery and factionalism) and build an ENTIRE GAME around it?
And then the worst parts of the WoW community (PvP asshattery and factionalism) are going to leave and go to War?
Thanks Mythic, for making WoW a better place.
Maz Aug 29th 2008 3:22PM
No, actually. If you read up on WAR, there is no PvP ass-hattery / griefing.
One of WAR's founding principles is the Chicken Mechanic. If you attack players in a zone that is low level in comparison to you, you are turned into a chicken with 10 HP and doing 1 damage per hit.
WAR, as I saw it, had no reason to send you back to the level 1-10 areas once you're 40, at least to PvP.
Mythor Aug 29th 2008 4:21PM
WAR is playable, yes, but it is going to launch in an unfinished state. There were still glaring bugs to fix at the end of the preview weekend and shortly thereafter it was declared the game had gone gold...
WAR is going to be another in a long line of rushed releases that will suffer as a consequence. It's a shame because pushing it back just one or two more months would have resulted in a much better product.
But I'm sure EA know what they're doing... :-|
Discograndpa Aug 29th 2008 5:58PM
Mythor, no MMO launches in a completed state, I mean did you play WoW when it first came out?
One could argue that no MMO is ever truly completed.
Were there bugs during the "Preview Weekend", yes there was. But I have to say, it's running much more smoothly than the WotLK beta, where Northrend crashes every 20 minutes. I would be a fool to judge the game based on that.
I think Mythic made a mistake calling it a "Preview Weekend", when it was in fact the closed beta stress test.
Open Beta is on the 7th, if they've addressed the issues that arose during the "Preview Weekend" by then, I'll have quite a bit of faith that Mythic can iron out the early MMO bugs in the coming months.
Discograndpa Aug 29th 2008 6:02PM
Speaking of the preview weekend, here's a Developer's reply to the issues that arose during.
http://www.warhammeralliance.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67557
Sless Aug 29th 2008 6:12PM
I think the difference is that now, no MMO can afford to release unfinished. It's going up against a pre-established juggernaut. It's going to be difficult to draw in players with the promise and great ideas the game has if it doesn't work, because the proven and polished WoW is sitting just 20 dollars away. They need to make sure WAR compares in terms of polish at release or they won't make it.