Analyst: WoW to add a million players in a year
by Mike Schramm 
Oct 15th 2008 at 6:00PM
At least one person who claims to be in the know believes that WoW ain't done yet: Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, believes that by the end of 2009, World of Warcraft will have picked up at least another million players around the world, in addition to the 10.9 million he says are already in the game. The launch of Wrath of the Lich King and the surge in popularity of the game in China will bring the game up to as much as 12 million players before the end of 2009.There's no question that WoW's population has slowed down lately -- the last time we heard an official update from Blizzard was way back in January, and while this analyst claims there are more nowadays, there's no question that things have plateaued for the moment. But maybe there are some more folks out there who haven't played yet, and maybe Wrath of the Lich King will bring them into the fold.
He also mentions Warhammer Online, as you might expect (isn't that pretty much a requirement anytime you talk about MMO populations these days?), but he's landed on the same conclusion both Blizzard, Mythic, and all of their players have already ended up at: WAR isn't really going to affect what WoW does, and vice versa. "Core WoW users," apparently, have "limited interest" in the other big MMO out there at the moment.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Virtual selves, Odds and ends, Blizzard, Expansions, Wrath of the Lich King
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Thiosion Oct 15th 2008 6:14PM
At 12,000,000 subscribers, Blizzard will make ~$70 per second from WoW subscriptions alone.
not5150 Oct 15th 2008 6:30PM
Not true... Players in China have a different payment system and many of them basically pay by the hour. The9 handles the money and gives Blizzard a cut.
hamsammich Oct 15th 2008 6:46PM
I sure hope they add more servers then...one million MORE subscribers isn't going to help the lag/disconnection issue any.
realmreaver Oct 15th 2008 8:42PM
As so long as Blizzard remember key things like making an MMO like a console game; adding content while making mass changes to principles like classes every so few years to spice things up; it will continue to be hard for many to leave the game. World of Starcraft might tho and since both is owned by Blizzard that can only spell even MORE money since the sci-fi aspect has not been truly been tapped into thanks in large to the failure of SWG head of developers. Now is the time to bring out Starcraft for an MMO of Knights of the Republic does. To be a Jedi in a porper era? Better hurry Blizzard.
ancalimon Oct 15th 2008 10:25PM
@ Hams,
it seems that they expect the majority of the new player base to be from china with the increasing popularity there. Sure North America an Europe may get more subscribers as well, but i dont think it will affect our gameplay much besides the possibility of more gold spammers
andreas Oct 15th 2008 6:15PM
Since launching in November 2004, World of Warcraft has become the world's most popular MMORPG, with more than 10.9 million subscribers. The game's first expansion, The Burning Crusade, broke PC-game sales records in North America and Europe by selling nearly 2.4 million copies in its first 24 hours of availability and approximately 3.5 million copies in its first month.
http://www.blizzard.com/us/press/080915.html
Manatank Oct 15th 2008 6:29PM
12,000,000 subscribers does not mean 12,000,000 people. Almost everyone I know in game has at least 2 accounts if not more.
rogue Oct 15th 2008 6:34PM
Seems atypical to me. None of my friends that play have more than one account. I currently have two, though I opened the second purely to level thru RAF and will be transferring the character to my main account when I'm done.
Tcgjarhead Oct 15th 2008 6:42PM
Have to agree with Manatank. If Blizzard had over 10 million subs they would make sure everyone knows it.
Its more likely that there are 6-7 million ACTUAL players since it seems a large amount of the population owns one or more accounts.
The Claw Oct 15th 2008 10:16PM
"If Blizzard had over 10 million subs they would make sure everyone knows it."
They do have over 10 million subscriptions and they have put out press releases to make sure everyone knows it.
How many actual human beings there are behind those 10.9 million subscriptions, that we don't know. But why is that significant? Who cares whether there are 10 million and 900,000 of them play two accounts, or whether there are 10.5 million, and 400,000 of them play two accounts. Same amount of revenue either way.
Tcgjarhead Oct 15th 2008 10:57PM
"They do have over 10 million subscriptions and they have put out press releases to make sure everyone knows it."
I ment it in terms of millions, as in having 11 million subs. They havent gotten to that point since they last told us 10 million subs in January.
And the whole "we have 10 million subs" is kind of mis-leading because most people will assume they mean 10 million players in which case the game probably never had that many individual players.
Not to mention its doubtful they have even 10 million subs right now.
Liel Oct 15th 2008 6:41PM
I have a hard time believing Blizzard still has that many players. A Blizzard dev said in an interview they lost some to AOC and only half came back, Warhammer gained a bunch who liked the PVP.
I still have not seen a "X" number of players announcement in quite a long time.
Tyler Oct 15th 2008 6:47PM
Finally convinced my dad to play with me.... XDDD
This'll add to the number.
Loarien Oct 15th 2008 6:48PM
Would like to buy stock in Blizzard please.
Xerous Oct 15th 2008 6:55PM
Down a bit but here ya go.
http://finance.aol.com/quotes/activision-blizzard-inc/atvi/nas
DrPestilence Oct 15th 2008 6:50PM
I agree that WAR and WoW are different markets having played WAR due to my love of its table top counterpart I'm already back in WoW drooling over Wrath.
Ryan Oct 16th 2008 8:40AM
Yea same here. To be honest, I'm more turned off than ever in terms of trying to search for that WoW replacement. I think I'll wait until Blizz releases their 'next gen mmo' for my next fix, WoW is great for now.
DrPestilence Oct 16th 2008 10:16AM
My thoughts exactly! It may even be WoW2 But I think I can live with that if indeed that is the case.
Hawk Oct 15th 2008 7:15PM
Wouldn't surprise me one but if they gained another million players. It's the best MMORPG on the market, and Wrath is looking tremendous... it will be bringing back tons of players... I'm one of them.
I've been playing Warhammer for the past weeks. Account cancelled, it simply does not compare to WOW at all. And the super duper awesome PvP that WAR hypes isn't that great. Though WOW could take some things from WAR, public quests are cool as hell.
Ryan Oct 16th 2008 8:42AM
World of Zerghammer.