Analyst: Wrath will sell five million copies
by Mike Schramm 
Nov 8th 2008 at 9:00AM
Here's our first analysis of Wrath sales (actually second, if you count Mike Morhaime's take on the subject): someone thinks it's going to sell big. Gamasutra reports that Mike Hickey of Janco Partners is predicting sales of five million copies for Wrath's first month in stores, which would basically make it the most popular expansion pack of all time. Burning Crusade, a pack that just barely beat out The Sims, sold 2.4 million copies in the first 24 hours, and 3.5 million within the first month, and so Hickey is looking at a little less than double that for the Northrend expansion.Huge numbers indeed, and yet they don't seem that surprising -- WoW's population has grown since Burning Crusade was released for sure, and while pretty much everyone agrees that not all players will be buying the expansion right away (our own informal poll has about 13% of our readers waiting, not to mention all of the players in other markets around the world), but if even 1/4 of WoW's 11 million players decide to pick up the game on launch, we're still looking at 2.75 million copies, more than BC.
No matter what, Blizzard will make a lot of money, and very likely break all records anyway next week. Wrath of the Lich King will be huge.
[via BigDownload]
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Blizzard, Expansions, Making money, Wrath of the Lich King
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Erika Nov 8th 2008 9:06AM
5 Million in the US alone. I think it will be more 7 or 8 global.
Mat Nov 8th 2008 9:27AM
They will not sell 5 million copies in the US - there are not much more than 2 million players!
That 11 million is ~2 .5 million US, ~2 .5 million EU and ~6 million China.
Andrew Nov 8th 2008 9:09AM
Is there a reason posts on wowinsider no longer mention the time at which they went live? Not knowing that is more troubling for me than I thought it would be.
Sinkari Nov 8th 2008 9:22AM
That would be because of wowinsider's new design. I don't see how it could bother you.
Hufke Nov 8th 2008 9:51AM
It bothers me too. I don't know why i always keep track of it, but I always look at it and it feels like something's missing. It's like going to your bank and find this one item you kept there for no apparent reason is missing. You don't need it, but you're used to it being there ;p. Luckily I check wowinsider on my phone most of the time and timestamps are still there in the light version of wowinsider (which I love. I love you guys for having a mobile (ad-less!!) version of the website. I always save up the stuff that I don't want to read right away (like know your lore and ask the lore nerd and stuff) for when I'm in the train or whatever). Yay. But yeah, I miss the time stamps. :-)
For the Forsaken!
Evi Nov 8th 2008 10:21AM
It bothers me too.
AlexW573 Nov 8th 2008 12:28PM
Doesn't particularly bother me, but I do miss it.
Mike Schramm Nov 8th 2008 1:02PM
The time posted was originally part of the new design, and then they decided that it wouldn't be, and then before the design went live they decided to put it back in. But it apparently didn't make it in before it could go back out -- last I heard they were going to get it back in eventually. It's not a huge deal, but a few people have asked for it -- stay patient and you should see it back soon.
Teut Nov 8th 2008 9:28AM
No, 5 million in US alone? There are "only" 2.5 Million WoW players in USA, a little more than 2 Million in Europe. The rest is in China or other countries.
"Bliz will make millions" is a little bit wrong. First the sales of the package alone isn't counted into profit as the money is being spend in marketing, paying the bandwidth of the first 4 weeks (which are free usually) and support.
The money of the retail box usually stays with the distributor Vivendi (or Activision)
Halokon Nov 8th 2008 9:44AM
You don't get a free month in an expansion...
But considering the profit Blizz will make on the months of time people will be buying to play it (New and Old Players alike), they will indeed make millions. But not off the box, as you said. That's why the game is being sold pretty cheaply in most places.
Efrain Canellas Nov 8th 2008 9:36AM
I want!
Astruar Nov 8th 2008 9:41AM
It seems kinda weird to me that someone would buy WotlK but not BC. How does that even work in-game?
Halokon Nov 8th 2008 9:48AM
It wouldn't, you need to have BC to reach 70, which you'll need at least one of for a DK or a meaningful trip to Northrend.
The figures for BC sold are just for the first day and first month, it doesn't take into account the legions of people who bought it later.
niko Nov 9th 2008 1:19PM
LK requires BC. There should be no confusion here.
At least the Battle Chest contains BC now, for all the new players that are going to be drawn to the game.
Astruar Nov 9th 2008 1:39PM
Yeah, I figured as much. The only thing that confused me was this part: "which would basically make it the most popular expansion pack of all time. ", quess he just meant "the highest sales within the first month"
Oneil Nov 8th 2008 10:06AM
I am in!!
Carl K Nov 8th 2008 10:25AM
something wicked this way comes! muahahha
vlad Nov 8th 2008 10:38AM
we will do 1 billion!!!!!!!!!! not 1 million
sephirah Nov 8th 2008 10:52AM
With 11 millions active accounts, isn't 5 millions copies a bit low?
For example, anybody here won't buy LK in the 1st month?
GreatLich Nov 8th 2008 6:17PM
I think the article (or rather its source) refers to boxed copies. Consider people with multiple accounts or households with more than one person playing. They conceivably could purchase more boxes, but one box with additional keys would suffice.