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12-30-2008 @ 2:07PM
Predicting WoW's demise is starting to get up there with all those crack pots that predict that "this year" will usher in the 'end of days' -every year- ... It's rather trite, and sensationalist frankly. Fact : WoW HAS NOT PEAKED YET. AoC and War clearly have, and LOTRO is the only MMO yet to 'hang' (so it seems by this data anyways - we know the tale of the subscription numbers between the two)KOTOR will no doubt pose a threat to WoW, Universe fandom alone will make that a reality, just like it was when SWG hit. Granted, if the game play isn't there, it too will peak and fall off sharply, just as War, and AoC did. WoW's not over by a long shot, it may eventually cease to be the MMO with the most 'players' subscribed, but I doubt very seriously, at even 4 years we're beginning to see the "decline" of WoW. Leveling off, perhaps, Peaked, close. On the decline? No.
12-30-2008 @ 4:54PM
Saying something hasn't peaked yet is impossible. If by some off-chance, log ins in wow flat-lined tomorrow, and then started a slow declined, then yes, WoW would have peaked.Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your Point of View), statistics like Log-Ins for an MMO don't generally curve, they jump around, like the stock market. Subs show more of a curve, but not necessarily, and can fluctuate quite a bit. Case in point, EVE showed a slight dip after release, but then started a steady climb that has continued to this day.Basically, what I'm saying is, is that this data predicts NOTHING. It tells us only one thing, more people have logged into WoW by percentage than any other MMO in the past year. Any assumption made about growth from this graph is unfounded.
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