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12-30-2008 @ 3:07PM
I'm also looking forward to when Jumpgate: Evolution comes out, as it will have PvP elements and will be akin to EVE but allow you to actually fly your ship. If NetDevil pulls it off mostly-flawlessly, it should be very well received. Conversely, I think Darkfall is a walking corpse much like AoC.I read the whole GamerDNA article and while the assumptions derived from their statistics are possibly *close* to truth, the metric slice of the populous they're using is heavily skewed and they freely admit it. So be sure to take everything you see in the charts shown with a grain of salt. Most of their results come from Xfire members, which is a 3rd party client that acts as a re-invention of the old Kali / Khan or Steam game launchers and friend-tracking system. As a result, all charts and assumptions are based on players that like Xfire, and that's a pretty small portion of the MMO populous. Most MMO gamers are gonna run at most an MMO, Ventrillo or Teamspeak, a browser, and maybe a chat client like AIM or Google Talk. Xfire is a bit of overkill and unnecessary for the average MMO player, and is actually a little annoying / intrusive / resource-intensive for those that would otherwise like to use it regardless. I'm sure I'm making my own assumption by saying so (though it's probably a likely one), most MMO players already have their friends within easy reach - in their guild or friends list. So these statistics are probably heavily skewed towards those gamers that play lots of different games, and that's not a good sample of the MMO market.As for WoW's eventual decline, it will happen someday, but there are a lot of people that were first introduced to MMOs through Blizzard's triumphant achievement in that market, and there's likely at *least* a good 2 or 3 million that will never leave the game for various reasons. UO and EQ are both still around and will always have a portion of the market, however small, until their parent companies finally turn their datacenters down for good... if ever. WoW has reached an unprecedented subscriber count and the percentage of those customers that would stay around forever might prove to be the same, but the raw number will be far greater. I'd venture to guess that even the percentage will be higher as well, primarily because of Blizzard's level of quality, level of overall customer satisfaction, and how well their client runs on older hardware.It's highly likely, based on the precedents of the MMOs that have come before it, that WoW may take at least 10 to 15 years to officially die. As for when it's no longer king of the hill, that's completely dependent on when another shop can finally (and reliably) match Blizzard's quality of content and level of mainstream success. It's gonna take deep pockets, vision, and tenacity on a grand scale.
12-30-2008 @ 4:19PM
no one i know uses xfire, what a waste of time
12-30-2008 @ 5:11PM
@ infectionAre you just here to troll? So far I've seen nothing to contribute or converse about from you-just insults and arguments.
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