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2-03-2009 @ 8:13PM
I don't mean to quibble too much but I think there is a serious flaw in your math. In order for your numbers to work one has to assume when a player picks a class and a spec it is done randomly assuming standard laws of probability with no influence of personal preference or preferences of the community. This, of course, is far from the case. Players are going to choose classes/specs that maximize their perceived utility (i.e. what will give them the most enjoyment). This is not an easily quantifiable variable. I'm not a hard-core stat major, but I've done enough quantitative analysis to know that you are making assumptions on the game's population that are clearly not reflected in reality.
2-03-2009 @ 8:21PM
Good job summarizing paragraph #3.
2-03-2009 @ 8:26PM
Agreed. The fault in the logic here is the class and spec population distribution, which varies between both factions and servers, not to mention the assumption that players who spend talent points in those particular trees actually use those spells or invest talent points to obtain them in the first place.
2-03-2009 @ 11:51PM
The other thing to consider is that Ret Paladins and Shadow Priests dominate the rankings at TalentChic. Hunters, as a class with 3 DPS specs (and valuable buffs in each tree) are going to focus more on perceived utility in deciding what to be.While the analysis is solid napkin math, it's not much more than that.
2-03-2009 @ 8:31PM
Well egg on my face for missing that line by reading too fast. I still maintain though that it's too large of an assumption to be making for this argument. I'm not asking the author to do this, but there probably is enough information out there available to the public to allow someone to make a sufficiently through analysis of the character population to determine how likely it is to have at least one character with replenishment. That's probably more math than anyone would care to do and I wouldn't blame them. In the end the simplest solution (which people do) is to say, "LFM - DPS that has replenishment buff, for Naxx".
2-03-2009 @ 8:38PM
Also, is that assuming that each tree is a spec, so 10 classes times 3 trees per class equals 30 classes? Because mages seem to have four, frost, fire, frostfire, and arcane. and it's my understanding that DKs have specs for deep into each of the trees as well as a duel wield spec which involves a certain degree of hybridization to grab the tastier dw talents. Those are the only classes I am currently raiding with, so maybe there are a few trees that are unable to support a spec, or maybe there are well over 30 total specs.
2-03-2009 @ 9:00PM
While the article pays lip service to the fact that the entire article is a waste of time, it does still go on to post itself. :)Hence the comment "Good job summarizing paragraph #3." is a little rough and short sighted.This article is complete rubbish because the assumptions in it are rubbish. It even says so, although not strongly enough. What is worse is that there are websites that allow you top use the REAL CLASS DISTRIBUTION and not phoney and exceptionally naive numbers to calculate. If I was not the busy person I am, I would bother to run the numbers ith this data.
2-03-2009 @ 9:01PM
If anyone points me to a website that has accurate, reliable information on spec distribution, I'd be happy to run the numbers with that data. I have not yet seen any such site.
2-04-2009 @ 8:02PM
For all servers: http://www.warcraftrealms.com/census.php?serverid=-1&factionid=-1&minlevel=10&maxlevel=80&servertypeid=2All there in bar graphs no less. Yes it is a self submit census, but there is no bias in that the /who they use to take the census has no opt-out for those online. I am sure you could find niggles and small holes in the sampling method that would increase the error by 5% or so.Does not matter thought because it is 1000% better than 1/30?!?
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