WoW subscriber numbers still increasing, multi-boxers trivial
by Adam Holisky 
Apr 6th 2009 at 3:00PM
There has been a long thread about WoW and the philosophical changes and approaches over the past four years, and in particular to some of the larger design decisions made recently (dual specs). In it Ghostcrawler makes an offhand remark about WoW's subscriber numbers:"Wrath of the Lich King is still selling very well and our subscribers are increasing."
Now I want to be clear that this was made off-hand and is not from an official earnings statement. But that doesn't discount it from being full of truthiness; and nonetheless, this is rather significant in that it's been a while since we last heard any indication of current subscriber numbers. To some this news won't be very surprising, given that Wrath of the Lich King has been a huge hit. But others might raise an eyebrow that after five months of Wrath things are still up-ticking.
He also mentions the ever hot topic of multi-boxers:
"The number of multi-boxers is trivial. If you are a hardcore player you may know several of them, but in the grand scheme there are very few people really doing that."
Now what is trivial when your subscriber numbers are approaching 12 million? 100,000 might be trivial. So might be 50,000. That's still a lot – but even if there are 100,000 multi-boxers, it's still less than 1% of the total population.
This is all quite timely for me, as I've recently been pondering the longevity of the World of Warcraft, or at least the point where subscriber numbers begin to decrease. My personal thought is that it will remain on an upswing or at least not decrease significantly for a couple more years. And then the decrease will be very gradual for quite a long time (and I pray this means job security for me, but that's another subject).
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, News items
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Zoidberg Apr 6th 2009 3:12PM
How are the numbers for wowinsider? It's not a good measurement of WoW subscribers, but you can make better measurements.
Adam Holisky Apr 6th 2009 3:18PM
I'm not sure how much I can say here, other than that our numbers are growing. But there's a lot more than just WoW growth going on with us too. We're doing more site promotion, expanding our coverage in key areas, working hard, etc...
But even with all that taken into account, it's cool to see across the bloggosphere site traffic increases (it is) - definitely a sign that the WoW community itself is at least growing, which is likely indicative of subscription growth (although we can't be sure, the variables are not directly linked).
Euripides Apr 6th 2009 4:41PM
I've been astounded by the depth and breadth of the wow blogosphere- the response I saw when I started my blog was nothing short of breathtaking.
Firestride Apr 6th 2009 3:11PM
If my own experiences have any universality, I imagine the numbers will increase through the summer, and then modestly decline as the school year starts back up.
Julie Apr 6th 2009 3:48PM
WoW should keep going strong until the Lich King comes out. Afterall, most people playing wow now are on because of the promise of seeing Arthas mano-a-mano.
It will not be a gradual decline though :p WoW is basically a bubble. A lot of it is inflated. It is not uncommon that people have been here for years and/or have multiple characters. Now, some would look at that and think: oh good, that means people are invested. But no. What it means is people WERE invested. At this point they have moreorless seen ALL the content. They are just hanging on out of habit, friendships, anticipation for the lich king. But I suspect that once any large group starts to leave; it will trigger a mass "selloff". Where everyone else suddenly realizes, "hey, i've been playing this game too long, too."
pietrex Apr 6th 2009 3:12PM
Scrooge! Woot!
John Apr 6th 2009 3:19PM
When WOW starts going down to where you will need another writing job, Blizzards next MMO will be out the doors.
And if not a Blizzard project, you guys here at WoWInsider are great. You'll find something.
msingletary Apr 6th 2009 3:23PM
I don't see any reason to believe that the subscriber base will start to decrease any time soon or in the next few years if they can continue to pump out great content like what came in Wrath.
To presume that the number of subscribers will start to decrease when it has been steadily increasing for a number of years just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If there were some reasoning included with that prediction, it would make it more useful.
Why do you think it will start decreasing? I'm not debating it, but I'm just curious about what you think will cause it since you didn't mention it (or any other information about what you're pondering regarding the longevity) in your post.
Adam Holisky Apr 6th 2009 3:33PM
Fair question. =)
The point of the post isn't to discuss my personal feelings about WoW's longevity, more to just report some Ghostcrawler comments. But of course I can't resist throwing in my personal opinion (hey, I'm a hack).
At some point WoW's numbers are going to have to go down. There will be another big MMO that will take its place at some point. There will be something that does better than it. That's just the nature of the industry and the passage of time.
As for why I think that time might be coming sooner rather than later, it's mainly because I see a slowing growth curve. In November WoW was reported to have 11mil subscribers, and we'll probably see a report soon that it has a million. So figure in six month time it's only increased a million subscribers, which is far less than it has previously.
That doesn't mean that it's dying or anything else like that, of course. And that wasn't my point.
My point is that, however, when it reaches that plateau of however many subscribers it maxes out on, the number must naturally decline. That decline will be quite interesting and educational to watch - and my pondering lies in how severe it will be. My guess there is that it will be very very gradual. Something like eventually, in a couple years, WoW will only loose about 500k subscribers a year.
We've seen this gradual decline with EQ1 - which is really the only example of a successful large western MMO we have to look at. EQ1 has "bottomed out" somewhat in population now, and it still is very active. I do suspect the same thing tiwll happen with WoW. Of course, that bottom will probably be in the millions (5mil would be my guess), rather than the hundreds of thousands EQ1 is (250k to 500k is what I remember, although I don't have a link hand to cite).
Vassal Apr 6th 2009 4:07PM
@Adam Holisky
True, WoW will eventually be defeated by another great MMO.
Most likely, it'll be a Blizzard Entertainment game.
Grinn Apr 6th 2009 4:13PM
Adam Holisky writes:
"The point of the post isn't to discuss my personal feelings about WoW's longevity, more to just report some Ghostcrawler comments. But of course I can't resist throwing in my personal opinion (hey, I'm a hack)."
Well, well, well. Adam I have to give credit where credit is due. You know you are a hack and you good naturedly admit. Perhpas I had you wrong all along. I'll stop trolling you now.
Utakata Apr 6th 2009 5:00PM
I believe there a slight subcriber dip when Age of Conan was released. Blizz never actually gave any numbers on that...but they did comment on it at the time.
I also agree with Adam that WoW is certainly meeting it's critical mass. And we're likely in it. Though when that platue will be reached is still pure speculation...cause ti maybe months if not years before things start declining.
I also thank Adam for not turning this into a WoW is dying arguement. I've seen hundreds of those posted on the General Forums since playing this game for 4 years now.
I understand there is some content disfatisfaction and after expansion class nerf batting griping going on. But this very similar to TBC around same time...and I believe "vanilla" WoW before that. But Blizz kept showing subscriber increase despite this. So I feel there is no credibility on the current players who claim that Blizz is on the way out due to it's current "problems." But rather as Adam has said...WoW is on a natural platue. One that would even likely exist if there are no complaints.
James Apr 6th 2009 3:29PM
wtf you guys get paid to write this crap?
Link Death Apr 6th 2009 3:35PM
Hate to break the news to ya, but there's quite a few swamps in Arizona. Google it before you try to get clever.
Gessilea Apr 6th 2009 3:37PM
I'm not surprised at all that the numbers would keep going up. For all the whinging on the forums (and there will ALWAYS be whinging on the forums), WoW is more accessible than ever, people that have been playing for years are still playing, and recruit-a-friend is a really awesome way for friends to catch up to the higher and higher level cap.
That said, I'm not normally one to criticize the writing here, but this article is sort of all over the place. Are you just reporting the statements, or do you have an opinion on them? The "truthiness" quip makes it sound like you think there's something false about GC's statement, but then you agree that multi-boxing is probably trivial. What exactly are you getting at?
smiley Apr 7th 2009 8:09AM
truthiness is the highest state of truth there can be!
so sayith cobert
Gessilea Apr 6th 2009 3:38PM
Would that be in Apache County, or Navajo?
http://www.lat-long.com/ListLocations-1-Arizona-Swamp.html
Gimmlette Apr 6th 2009 3:39PM
I imagine it's increasing but the base is not, as far as I can see, the hardcore gamer who first picked up the game in 11-04. Now, the new user is the gal who saw it on the shelf in Target a couple years ago and wondered if it was something she could "get into". I believe the changes from getting mounts at 30 to the 4 bosses and you're out instances in Wrath are designed to target the person who can play maybe Tuesday, Wednesday and every other Sunday afternoon.
I'm losing a lot of friends who are not happy with the expansion. It's an argument Insider has raised before. "Is the game being 'dumbed down'?" I don't see growth in EU/NA but in places WOW just reached in the past 2-3 years. And, if they ever get Wrath into China, there will be an explosion of new users.
I'm not a hardcore raider; quite the opposite. I just got Loremaster of Kalimdor and have dozens of things I want to do without finishing all the quests in Icecrown or Storm Peaks. Indeed, my hearth isn't in Dalaran (Lagaran?) because it's just not conducive to what I'm doing right now. So, I will happily play the game finding something new to do.
But my hardcore friends are leaving because it's hugely boring. I don't advocate gearing the game towards them by any means. I think there was a survey some months back showing "hardcore" raiders were less than 20% of the user base. But I do hope, for my friends anyway, that the patch brings them hard challenges. For ActiveBlizzard, they should be happy to note, not a one of those people I know who are leaving have left for another MMO. They are leaving because this one holds no challenge for them anymore. I hope that changes.
RogueJedi86 Apr 6th 2009 5:13PM
But on the other hand, casuals are quitting because they only see the raiders being satiated. They see that once you hit level cap, all that's left are dungeons and raids, and the only new content being introduced is raids. 3.1's big feature is Ulduar, a new 10/25-man raid, but what's in 3.1 for the casuals? A daily hub in Icecrown that requires you to be 80 or at least 77+ to even get to? Swimming mounts? A few fishing dailies? Not a lot for the casuals. Stuff like Dance Studios are the big things that cater to casuals.
The real stuff casuals want, like Player Housing and Cosmetic Gear/Dyes? Blizzard outright refuses to ever make it possible, citing thousands of hours of work required to do it. Meanwhile they spend hundreds of hours making each new raid for each new patch, leaving the casuals to wonder why hundreds of hours for a raid is more important than a couple thousand for housing(that anyone, not just casuals, can enjoy). The casuals are just wondering when it'll be their time to shine.
So yeah, Hardcore Raiders are quitting, but so are Casuals. Combined together, you can see why people are thinking that WoW is in a decline or at least a much slower growth.
Gimmlette Apr 6th 2009 7:07PM
Rogue, you make valid points about the dichotomy between what casuals want and what hardcore raiders want. I, personally, don't understand the drive for player housing. What is it going to net me? I would really like a guild bulletin board feature where the Message of the Day that gets easily swept aside by whatever message Blizzard chooses to post, would be available, as well as general guild notices. I want bigger bags and the long promised wardrobe where pack rats like me could store tabards and the extra gear sets we covet. Appealing to a hardcore raider, probably not so much but to a casual, oh yeah.
We all know WOW can't be exactly what each player wants and there has to be a point at which each patch ends with dreams unfulfilled. I think it's fair to say that there is a wide swath of people, hardcore and casual, who are leaving because the game is not what they started playing X years ago. Has the game reached critical mass? Maybe not yet, but that point certainly seems closer now than it did a year ago.