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4-06-2009 @ 3:23PM
I don't see any reason to believe that the subscriber base will start to decrease any time soon or in the next few years if they can continue to pump out great content like what came in Wrath.To presume that the number of subscribers will start to decrease when it has been steadily increasing for a number of years just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If there were some reasoning included with that prediction, it would make it more useful.Why do you think it will start decreasing? I'm not debating it, but I'm just curious about what you think will cause it since you didn't mention it (or any other information about what you're pondering regarding the longevity) in your post.
4-06-2009 @ 3:33PM
Fair question. =)The point of the post isn't to discuss my personal feelings about WoW's longevity, more to just report some Ghostcrawler comments. But of course I can't resist throwing in my personal opinion (hey, I'm a hack).At some point WoW's numbers are going to have to go down. There will be another big MMO that will take its place at some point. There will be something that does better than it. That's just the nature of the industry and the passage of time.As for why I think that time might be coming sooner rather than later, it's mainly because I see a slowing growth curve. In November WoW was reported to have 11mil subscribers, and we'll probably see a report soon that it has a million. So figure in six month time it's only increased a million subscribers, which is far less than it has previously.That doesn't mean that it's dying or anything else like that, of course. And that wasn't my point.My point is that, however, when it reaches that plateau of however many subscribers it maxes out on, the number must naturally decline. That decline will be quite interesting and educational to watch - and my pondering lies in how severe it will be. My guess there is that it will be very very gradual. Something like eventually, in a couple years, WoW will only loose about 500k subscribers a year. We've seen this gradual decline with EQ1 - which is really the only example of a successful large western MMO we have to look at. EQ1 has "bottomed out" somewhat in population now, and it still is very active. I do suspect the same thing tiwll happen with WoW. Of course, that bottom will probably be in the millions (5mil would be my guess), rather than the hundreds of thousands EQ1 is (250k to 500k is what I remember, although I don't have a link hand to cite).
4-06-2009 @ 4:07PM
@Adam HoliskyTrue, WoW will eventually be defeated by another great MMO.Most likely, it'll be a Blizzard Entertainment game.
4-06-2009 @ 4:13PM
Adam Holisky writes:"The point of the post isn't to discuss my personal feelings about WoW's longevity, more to just report some Ghostcrawler comments. But of course I can't resist throwing in my personal opinion (hey, I'm a hack)."Well, well, well. Adam I have to give credit where credit is due. You know you are a hack and you good naturedly admit. Perhpas I had you wrong all along. I'll stop trolling you now.
4-06-2009 @ 5:00PM
I believe there a slight subcriber dip when Age of Conan was released. Blizz never actually gave any numbers on that...but they did comment on it at the time. I also agree with Adam that WoW is certainly meeting it's critical mass. And we're likely in it. Though when that platue will be reached is still pure speculation...cause ti maybe months if not years before things start declining.I also thank Adam for not turning this into a WoW is dying arguement. I've seen hundreds of those posted on the General Forums since playing this game for 4 years now. I understand there is some content disfatisfaction and after expansion class nerf batting griping going on. But this very similar to TBC around same time...and I believe "vanilla" WoW before that. But Blizz kept showing subscriber increase despite this. So I feel there is no credibility on the current players who claim that Blizz is on the way out due to it's current "problems." But rather as Adam has said...WoW is on a natural platue. One that would even likely exist if there are no complaints.
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