1) Agree we'll hear at Blizzcon.

2) Doubt we'll see a release this year.

Patche in TBC took 3-4 months on average... closer to 4. Counting frm 3.1 that puts is in July for 3.2 if it's at all worthy of a patch. Assuming 3.3 is the final patch and contains Icecrown it would be out in the October timeframe. There's no way they will release the final raid with Arthas in the same quarter as a new expansion.

There's no alpha. The alpha/beta testing for Wrath took up about 6 months and from what I saw in the beta (I was in the first wave of beta invites) I don't see them magically shortening the process. Alpha would need to start in the next month or 2 to make a Q4 date.

The would also be FAR faster than TBC > Wrath. or even vanilla > TBC. Both were over year from announce to ship and in the case of Wrath the very early stages were playable at Blizzcon 07.

Will we see an announce at Blizzcon? Yes. There was no real news there last year and they need to give people a reason to anticipate it. Plus it's a great place and time to do an announce. Will they say "And it's shipping in 2009"? No. I could see them shooting for Q2 of 2010, but only if they announce beta this year or very early next year.

However, the do need to tighten things up. Wrath has no where near enough in it to last until late 2010 (though that's the same span of time from release to expansion end tha TBC saw).