Loot, rationality, and the Sunwell effect, part II

What makes the 10-man raid so attractive?
In the absence of any loot concerns, you could reasonably say that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man. 10-mans are far simpler to organize and coordinate, generally faster to run, easier to administrate if you use DKP or loot council, and they make it a lot easier to guarantee consistent quality across the raid (the vast gulf between completion rates on Immortal versus Undying is a good clue to how this has worked out in practice). Blizzard is even more committed to the idea of BtPNtC for 10-mans, because they know you can't necessarily rely on the presence of every class. 10-man raids can also be more difficult than 25-mans, as we've seen in Tier 7, sating hardcore players' appetites for tough raid content and silencing critics who might otherwise dismiss them as 25-mans on training wheels. And, on top of everything else, 10-man raiders now see the exact same content as 25-man raiders.
Once you start adding all of this up, the situation starts to look pretty grim for 25-mans. If neither form of raiding awarded any loot and people did them purely for the pleasure of experiencing the content, there would be no external incentive to make 25-man raiding worth the time or effort.
Question: How do you get people to do 25-man raids when they can see the same content in a 10-man with far less hassle?
Answer: You can't.

Not unless you provide them with an incentive, and -- this is an MMORPG, right? -- that incentive is loot.
Shouldn't people do 25-mans just because they like 25-mans?
When you think about it, the only reason to do 25-man raids (if we remove loot from the equation) would be belonging to a guild with too many people to squeeze into a 10-man. Even then, I think the pressure on such a guild would be to form multiple 10-man raid teams rather than put the additional effort into running a 25-man.
Our poll results indicate that most people don't think players would bother running 25-mans if you could get the same gear elsewhere, so the question of "should" is almost beside the point. As much as I agree that players "should" run 25-mans if they prefer them, we're not giving them much reason to arrive at that preference. It's irrational to expect that most people would prefer to do the exact same raid content with more logistical difficulties for no additional reward. The history of player behavior serves to demonstrate that players are quite rational indeed, and are quick to notice, evaluate, and adopt the most efficient means of character advancement.
What happens if we standardize loot quality across 10-man and 25-man raids?
If I were a Blizzard developer sitting in my office sipping gin on some idle Thursday and I were asked about it, my response would be that gear equalization between 10-man and 25-man raids would result in two intractable problems:

Problem A: Players would gear up significantly faster.
If you could get best-in-slot gear in both 10-man and 25-man raids, hardcore or otherwise serious raiders would run both obsessively in order to gear up as quickly as possible for the extra advantage on hard-mode achievements and encounters like Algalon. This may sound great to players, but it's not such a great deal for Blizzard, which spent months working on this content and has both a business and design interest in extending its lifespan. And in the long run, any honest player would admit that conquering all of the game's content as quickly as possible isn't an ideal way to experience it.
There is no way for Blizzard to design and program content fast enough to keep up with the demands of a guild like Ensidia, but if a much wider swathe of the game population is no different in exhausting its gear and content offerings within weeks of a content patch's release, the developers have a problem. Raid lockouts and the distribution of gear into different 10-man and 25-man i-levels are two of the last pacing mechanisms Blizzard continues to use to keep players from trying to get everything they want immediately. It strikes me as unwise to eliminate the latter, particularly in an age where raid content is meant to be more accessible (i.e. easier).
I think the new form of pacing mechanism we've seen -- the 1-hour-per-week Algalon attempt -- may be the first of many such 1-hour or otherwise short-duration lockouts.
Problem B: Assuming A occurs, we don't want a repeat of the organizational nightmare that arose in early Tier 4 content.
The Karazhan-to-Gruul's leap in Tier 4 absolutely destroyed a number of guilds for precisely this reason; what did you do about the extra 5 people? A 25-man raiding guild doesn't break down evenly into either 2 10-man or 3 10-man teams, period. Either you pick the former and screw 5 people out of a raid slot every week, or you draft additional friend-rank or PuG players with less experience and gear to fill the slots on the 3rd 10-man team. While the situation was undeniably exacerbated by the downsizing of 40-man raids to 25-mans, guild leaders went insane trying to keep every player rotated into the content they needed without leaving anyone out, favoring players in needed roles, or coming up short when they tried to do Gruul's.

Again, I really do not believe that standardizing gear drops across both tiers of raid content would result in 25-man players continuing to do 25-mans just because they prefer them, and 10-man players continuing to do 10-mans just because they prefer them. Competitive or otherwise serious raiding guilds would correctly see limiting themselves to one form of content as hindering their progress. Thus, Problem B is virtually fated to occur, with the same unhappy results and guild instability issues as Tier 4.
Is Blizzard directly responsible for this? No. But the problems that inadvertently resulted from the design of Tier 4 raid progression didn't escape their attention either.
Can we fix this by locking players into either 10-man or 25-man raids?
This is a possibility, but I believe it would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.
First, it eliminates the flexibility players currently enjoy with respect to how they want to experience these raids. At the moment, you can do one form of raiding with your guild, and another more informally with a group of friends, guildies, and alts if you want. Locking players out of one set of raids obviously kills this.
Secondly, it would severely limit player generosity with respect to bringing characters or alts to help friends' 10- or 25-man runs in the event of a player's departure or disconnect. Most people I know happily volunteer to bring a toon to help out in these situations, but I doubt they'd be happy to do so if it means the few bosses they'll see as a replacement player will shut down any other raiding they might have been able to do that week. No one's going to want to bring their toon in to help a 10-man raid stuck at Sapphiron and Kel'Thuzad if that means they can't enter Naxx-25.
Thirdly, I return to my original premise; people are relentlessly rational. If you can get 25-man content and 25-man gear at the 10-man level, this is a very strong incentive for players not to bother with 25-man raiding. I don't believe that locking players into either 10-mans or 25-mans would result in an instantaneous death for 25-man raiding, but as raiding guild attrition invariably takes its course, the temptation for many guild leaders in the long run is going to be downsizing their guilds and simply doing 10-man raids.

Again, I can't stress enough that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man does if you remove loot from the equation. With loot equalized, the 25-man is at a significant disadvantage that can hardly work to its longterm benefit. The question of whether 25-mans should remain in the game is one for a different day, but if we presume that they're here to stay, Blizzard is entirely correcting in creating incentives that make the 25-man a "rational" choice.






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 7)
seanfury Apr 24th 2009 11:15AM
IMO, 10man gear should be worse than 25man gear, but more on the lines of introductory gear so that you can DO 25mans.
Dungeons
level80questgear
Heroics
10mans
25mans
That's how I've always envisioned it anyway. And it's not like you're seeing the SAME exact thing when you go between a 10man and a 25man, since a lot of bosses have different abilities and what-not.
doug Apr 24th 2009 11:19AM
Did you even read the article?
Kellerune Apr 24th 2009 11:22AM
That was the problem with Gruuls. Blizzard doesn't want to repeat that. That you would NEED 10 man gear for 25 mans. But they DO help.
seanfury Apr 24th 2009 11:25AM
And then why would people DO 25mans? THAT's the point. You can't homogenize 10 and 25mans by making gear the same, or close to being equal, because 85% of the WoW population will hit 10mans, get their gear and call it a day.
AShadowPriest Apr 24th 2009 11:34AM
At the moment, you'd be insane to graduate from level 80 dungeons and heroics directly to 25 man raids unless your guild carries you through those 25 man raids. 10 man gear IS required in WOTLK for 25 man raids. These steps of progression, whether or not Blizzard intends them to be part of the game, are here, and they aren't going anywhere.
In my opinion, having to herd 25 cats instead of 10 *by itself* justifies better loot from 25-man raids.
I personally prefer the camaraderie, loot, and feeling of accomplishment from downing bosses in a 25 man raid more. However, running 10 mans is much more intimate, personal, and just plain fun. It's not a matter of "which is better?", but "which do you prefer and when?"
Kassu Apr 24th 2009 11:55AM
The problem with 3.1 isn't so much the loot in 10 vs loot in 25 issue.
It's the fact that 10-man Ulduar drops useless emblems and T8 gear CAN'T BE BOUGHT.
It makes a lot of sense for 10man gear to be inferior, but it DOES NOT make sense for them to lose out on emblem gear and purchased T8.
Kevin Apr 24th 2009 12:37PM
@AShadowPriest
"you'd be insane to graduate from... heroics directly to 25 man raids"
I have to disagree here. Heroics drop epic gear that has the same item level as 10 man gear. I ran heroics until I got the best I could get from them. I also had quite a few badges to turn in for more ilvl200 gear. I went straight to Naxx25 and had no problems.
trogdor7 Apr 24th 2009 12:02PM
@ ShadowPriest: If having to organize 25 people is the reason that 25 mans have better loot, why does anyone but the raid leader (and class/role leaders, etc.) benefit from that? If your job is just to show up, you didn't put in any more effort showing up to a 25 mand than to a 10 man.
While making the two tiers have the same loot might lower play of 25 mans, I feel like, at least in T7, the opposite happened. Naxx/Sarth/Archavon 25 were so easily puggable that there was no reason to do 10 man. If you didn't know what you were doing, you could get carried through Naxx 25, die on every fight, and come out with a few best in slot epics. In 10 man, it's much harder to carry people, assuming the people doing the carrying are actually in 10 man gear.
The solution, to me, is to maintain the gear disparity, but lower it. Instead of having gear be a full tier (13 itemlevels) apart, they should be somewhere around 7. I think this would keep people in 25 mans for the slightly better loot, while not making 10 man raiders feel screwed for (at least in T7) completing the harder content.
hold up Apr 24th 2009 12:23PM
@trogdor7
You've figured it out but you don't know it yet.
They don't need to change anything on how the loot iLvl works, they need to change the encounters. You said T7 was so easily puggable that nobody needed to do the 10 man. The easiest way to fix that, make T8 un-puggable.
And Blizzard did a very good job of that. I don't think you'll be seeing a pug for Ulduar 25 until at least 3.2, depending on your server population. For instance, you very rarely saw someone recruiting for a fresh TK/SSC run, and if you did it was more than likely only a couple open spots. Well, before the 3.0 nerf hit...
They just need to make 10 mans slightly easier than the 25 mans and everything will be fine. Not easy as in full clear while still in leveling greens, easy as in, 3/4 epics from Naxx 10 easy.
AShadowPriest Apr 24th 2009 12:37PM
@ Trogdor7
"If you didn't know what you were doing, you could get carried through Naxx 25, die on every fight, and come out with a few best in slot epics. In 10 man, it's much harder to carry people, assuming the people doing the carrying are actually in 10 man gear."
It's a false assumption to use Naxx25 as an example of this problem. The reason Naxx25 was easier than Naxx10 in a lot of places were due to scaling issues inherent to larger raids (a larger buff pool, the scaling efficiency of group heals in a 25 man, poor design of boss abilities relative to 10 man raids, etc.) and Blizzard has already admitted several times that this was a mistake that they will not repeat.
If you've been in Ulduar at all, on both settings, you'll notice that the encounters are noticeably more difficult on 25 man and, in particular, more demanding of good raid coordination, which Blizzard finally realized is the weak point of larger raids and the best way to adjust difficulty vs. larger raids.
However the people who have found 10 man to be considerably easier than 25 man also will have tended to overgear the instance (read: bringing Naxx25 gear to Ulduar10). Unfortunately, I'm one of these people so I can't comment on the difficulty of 10 man in 10 man appropriate gear. However given the level of difficulty even in 25 man gear I suspect it would be appropriately difficult for mostly ilevel 200 geared raiders on 10 man.
"The solution, to me, is to maintain the gear disparity, but lower it. Instead of having gear be a full tier (13 itemlevels) apart, they should be somewhere around 7."
This is exactly how Ulduar works.
"If having to organize 25 people is the reason that 25 mans have better loot, why does anyone but the raid leader (and class/role leaders, etc.) benefit from that? If your job is just to show up, you didn't put in any more effort showing up to a 25 mand than to a 10 man."
Not true. It's incumbent on every member in a (serious PvE) 25 man guild to maintain good raid attendence as that guarantees a steady flow of boss kills because the raid leaders don't have to teach a larger pool of players how the encounter works. That's much harder to do with 25 people than it is for 10. It's also harder to keep the depth on the bench that you need in a 25 man guild, but if you *do* have enough then the pressure to compete on each individual raider is also higher. If the guild is consistently downing bosses, then all members are doing a good job. Raiders are forced to coordinate with a larger number of players in 25 man groups, which in the current iteration of 25 man raids is naturally the way these encounters are built to scale in difficulty.
So it is more difficult to "just show up" to 25 man raids, at least if you want your 25 man group to succeed. Yes, the opportunity to carry people still exists, and will always exist because there are parts of encounter design that simply cannot be changed to maintain the same level of difficulty for 10 people as much as 25 people without making the encounter frustratingly hard or impossible for the 25 man group. However with Ulduar I think Blizzard has found a good balance between the difficulty of 10 man vs. 25 man.
Bod Apr 24th 2009 1:13PM
What an excellently reasoned article, another wow insider classic from you Allison and just as good as http://www.wowinsider.com/2009/03/03/shifting-perspectives-tanks-wrath-and-crushing-blows
You're wasted on the trolls in the replies and the posts from people who have obviously not read more than the title, if that.
I hope I speak for the majority who read, but do not comment, in praising your thinking and hoping to see more.
Cor Apr 24th 2009 5:26PM
In my guild we have 70% of members that are serious and "hardcore", 20% that are good players but not driven to the be best, and 10% that think raiding is fun but their not willing to do anything extra to win. As a result we do well in 25 man content because the hardcore majority can cover for the casual minority.
In 10 man there is no room to cover for anyone. When you are going after 10 man hard modes even a single weak player will doom you.
So if 25 and 10 loot was equal my guild would have clicks develop from the hardcore players and the rest would be frozen out. Not the most enjoyable situation.
So why even have 25 man content? My guess is because it feel more epic. Having a bunch of people fighting a dragon makes the dragon seem that much more powerful. The less people the less epic the feel. But as stated in the artical, people are rational and will take the path of least resistance so they will do as little as they can for maximum reward then wonder why it's not as fulfilling as it used to be.
VSUReaper Apr 24th 2009 4:07PM
@ Kevin
"I have to disagree here. Heroics drop epic gear that has the same item level as 10 man gear. I ran heroics until I got the best I could get from them. I also had quite a few badges to turn in for more ilvl200 gear. I went straight to Naxx25 and had no problems."
And for some classes, there is only 1 or 2 pieces of gear from the 5 mans that will carry you into the raids. For example:
My priest is disc, and I ran 3 5-mans before going into my first raid, and only had one piece of loot from them. All the rest of my gear was BT/Hyjal gear that was gemmed and chanted for crit. My T6 gear was almost as good as the 5 man gear, and I wouldn't have gotten any decent upgrades until the raids. As for badge gear, I bought the trinket, which I have since replaced. I went into Naxx 25, and I did ok, not great but ok.
On my warrior tank, I didnt get ANY epics from 5 mans until I was already tanking 25 man content in a mix of BT/Hyjal/crafted gear. Once again, my old lvl 70 gear was as good, if not better in many cases then the stuff I was finding in the 5 mans. The difference between this toon and the priest is that I had much stricter gearing requirements and was forced to farm 5 mans and ore for badges and to craft my gear.
I have to agree with the person that made the comment that the leap from 5 mans to 10 mans was not big enough (i think someone said that). Its just a little disheartening to go from BC where you worked your ass off to get gear in order to raid, and then you come into wrath and faceroll/get it all crafted and get a free ticket into raids. In fact, I'm rolling a ret pally atm in my spare time to prove to some friends that I will me more than able to provide some half decent DPS without touching a badge until my first raid.
The final comment that I want to make about this article is this: different people raid for different reasons. I prefer 25 mans for the simple fact that there is a little more room for trial and error. If there is a fight that requires 2 tanks, but you have am arms warrior with a prot set, he can throw that on and help tank adds while the MT's are worrying about the boss. There is also those times where having a DPS'er toss on a shield and 1h weapon and finish off the boss b/c the tank couldnt get heals for one reason or another is nice, and you wont get that in a 10 man.
In a 10 man, your raid comp has to be flawless: 2 tanks, direct heals, aoe heals, disease dispell, poison dispell, curse dispell, magic dispell, aoe dps, single target burst dps, dps that can OT in a pinch, dps that can assist on heals in a pinch, at least 1 person that can provide replenishment, and while its not required, it makes all the fights that much easier: a bloodlust/heroism. You need all those things I just listed to come out of 10 people, and in some cases, its not going to happen. Ever try to down spider wing with no BL or poison cleansing? Its damn near impossible (note I said near). Thats not even covering the buffs. Many buffs are now covered by multiple classes (in varying degrees of strengths - 2 min ghetto might needs a buff imo), but in some cases, having a single buff will make a raid easy or difficult: fortitude. Its not required, but ask any tank what buff they want more than anything and their response will usually be fort, followed by kings in the same breath (fortkings).
Its not gear that sends me into the 25 mans (although I would be lying if I said it didnt cement the deal) but the environment. I dont get nearly as frustrated in 25 mans as I do 10 mans, and I get a better sense of accomplishment when I raid 25 mans b/c I helped to coordinate 25 people to the same goal.
w01ph Apr 24th 2009 4:56PM
@VSUReaper
YOU were in T6 gear, many of us weren't. I rolled 'the wrong class' and had no chance of getting into any of the 'raiding' guilds on my server. So I made my own, we cleared kara, with a druid tank, just before the 3.0 nerf, and ZA 2 weeks before wrath. I, as the druid tank, had 2 t4 pieces, and badge items mostly. Your experience of being able to level and hit raids with what you had at the end of BC is vastly in the minority. And that is where much of this issue comes from.
I do agree with you though, 25mans for me is a much more comfortable and laid back experience, because of the margin for error. Although, for that very reason, I honestly enjoy my 10mans more, and consider them to be the greater achievements, with notable exceptions as mentioned in the article, immortal vs. undying. I don't want to bang my head against a boss forever like the few who saw sunwell did, but I thoroughly enjoy seeing my raid team work together and get the coordination right to accomplish the same thing that 10 out of 25 failing can also accomplish.
Eisengel Apr 25th 2009 6:14AM
I agree there should be two levels of progression, and I agree that not being able to buy Tier 8 with badges is @!#!@#. If not for badge buys I would not have my chest or hands, since neither my guild, nor any of the runs I've subbed into, have run the bosses that drop those tokens.
However... I think this entire article and argument begs an important question, which some of you are addressing, is raiding with 15 more people worth 13 ilevels? Personally, I think it is entirely ridiculous that you get better gear because you happen to have a larger group. I think all high-ilvl gear should come from hard modes.
Sure it is harder to organize 25 people, but I disagree that having 24 other people there somehow makes raiders work harder. I've seen so much bone-headed crap in 25s you'd think the characters were being run by drunk, retarded one-eyed muskrats with cerebral palsy. In a 10-man there's no hiding. When you screw up in general it's up there in lights for all to see. On my Spriest geared in less-than-BiS from 10-mans and my 2 pieces of T7, I've outDPSed full 25-man geared Mages and Warlocks. Is it because Spriests are damage monsters? Hell no. I think it's because even though their gear is better, or maybe because their gear is better, and they have 24 other people pounding on the boss, they don't push very hard.
Currently the game rewards you more for herding more cats. Is herding more cats really worth that gear though, especially when an offbeat hybrid DPS whose best gear is 2 pieces a full tier below yours can stomp all over the DPS leaderboards? To me 25 man raids are an excuse to give players better gear, not a reason. If players want to coast through a raid on normal mode and pick up the basic drops, no prob. If they want to take a shot at better gear, a better reward, I think they should have to work for it. The point is, I run the same rotations at the same priorities and use the same situationals in 25-man as in 10-man raids... I do the same work.. and somehow the fact that there are 24 other people there rather than 9 means that what I did was somehow deserving of a greater reward.
If you want a better reward, you should have to earn it, not run the same fight tuned for more people.
Kamilo Apr 24th 2009 12:50PM
Great article :)
Kolo Apr 24th 2009 12:05PM
This is an excellent article.
I agree with you that 25 man's should be priority, however my main problem is this;
I'm in a pretty hardcore guild, however we focus on 10 man content (Malygos, Sarth 3d, etc all done). However as far as the WoW community goes, our achievements mean very little because we did this in 10 man, even though at the time many of these encounters were harder in 10 man.
herewego Apr 24th 2009 12:13PM
Very nice article.
As a part of a 10 man raiding guild it would be nice to show that we did 10 man content (and achievements) with 10 man gear.
Having 10 man achievements (maybe not content) requiring you to have 10 man gear iLvls would be nice.
m0wglie Apr 24th 2009 11:22AM
You're missing something.
If people like 10-man raiding is better than 25-man raiding (except for the loot), why are Blizzard bothering to develop 25-man versions of their dungeons at all?
Caz Apr 24th 2009 11:25AM
This was addressed in the OP. 25 mans hvhe better loot=longer life span of the content overall.