Loot, rationality, and the Sunwell effect, part II

What makes the 10-man raid so attractive?
In the absence of any loot concerns, you could reasonably say that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man. 10-mans are far simpler to organize and coordinate, generally faster to run, easier to administrate if you use DKP or loot council, and they make it a lot easier to guarantee consistent quality across the raid (the vast gulf between completion rates on Immortal versus Undying is a good clue to how this has worked out in practice). Blizzard is even more committed to the idea of BtPNtC for 10-mans, because they know you can't necessarily rely on the presence of every class. 10-man raids can also be more difficult than 25-mans, as we've seen in Tier 7, sating hardcore players' appetites for tough raid content and silencing critics who might otherwise dismiss them as 25-mans on training wheels. And, on top of everything else, 10-man raiders now see the exact same content as 25-man raiders.
Once you start adding all of this up, the situation starts to look pretty grim for 25-mans. If neither form of raiding awarded any loot and people did them purely for the pleasure of experiencing the content, there would be no external incentive to make 25-man raiding worth the time or effort.
Question: How do you get people to do 25-man raids when they can see the same content in a 10-man with far less hassle?
Answer: You can't.

Not unless you provide them with an incentive, and -- this is an MMORPG, right? -- that incentive is loot.
Shouldn't people do 25-mans just because they like 25-mans?
When you think about it, the only reason to do 25-man raids (if we remove loot from the equation) would be belonging to a guild with too many people to squeeze into a 10-man. Even then, I think the pressure on such a guild would be to form multiple 10-man raid teams rather than put the additional effort into running a 25-man.
Our poll results indicate that most people don't think players would bother running 25-mans if you could get the same gear elsewhere, so the question of "should" is almost beside the point. As much as I agree that players "should" run 25-mans if they prefer them, we're not giving them much reason to arrive at that preference. It's irrational to expect that most people would prefer to do the exact same raid content with more logistical difficulties for no additional reward. The history of player behavior serves to demonstrate that players are quite rational indeed, and are quick to notice, evaluate, and adopt the most efficient means of character advancement.
What happens if we standardize loot quality across 10-man and 25-man raids?
If I were a Blizzard developer sitting in my office sipping gin on some idle Thursday and I were asked about it, my response would be that gear equalization between 10-man and 25-man raids would result in two intractable problems:

Problem A: Players would gear up significantly faster.
If you could get best-in-slot gear in both 10-man and 25-man raids, hardcore or otherwise serious raiders would run both obsessively in order to gear up as quickly as possible for the extra advantage on hard-mode achievements and encounters like Algalon. This may sound great to players, but it's not such a great deal for Blizzard, which spent months working on this content and has both a business and design interest in extending its lifespan. And in the long run, any honest player would admit that conquering all of the game's content as quickly as possible isn't an ideal way to experience it.
There is no way for Blizzard to design and program content fast enough to keep up with the demands of a guild like Ensidia, but if a much wider swathe of the game population is no different in exhausting its gear and content offerings within weeks of a content patch's release, the developers have a problem. Raid lockouts and the distribution of gear into different 10-man and 25-man i-levels are two of the last pacing mechanisms Blizzard continues to use to keep players from trying to get everything they want immediately. It strikes me as unwise to eliminate the latter, particularly in an age where raid content is meant to be more accessible (i.e. easier).
I think the new form of pacing mechanism we've seen -- the 1-hour-per-week Algalon attempt -- may be the first of many such 1-hour or otherwise short-duration lockouts.
Problem B: Assuming A occurs, we don't want a repeat of the organizational nightmare that arose in early Tier 4 content.
The Karazhan-to-Gruul's leap in Tier 4 absolutely destroyed a number of guilds for precisely this reason; what did you do about the extra 5 people? A 25-man raiding guild doesn't break down evenly into either 2 10-man or 3 10-man teams, period. Either you pick the former and screw 5 people out of a raid slot every week, or you draft additional friend-rank or PuG players with less experience and gear to fill the slots on the 3rd 10-man team. While the situation was undeniably exacerbated by the downsizing of 40-man raids to 25-mans, guild leaders went insane trying to keep every player rotated into the content they needed without leaving anyone out, favoring players in needed roles, or coming up short when they tried to do Gruul's.

Again, I really do not believe that standardizing gear drops across both tiers of raid content would result in 25-man players continuing to do 25-mans just because they prefer them, and 10-man players continuing to do 10-mans just because they prefer them. Competitive or otherwise serious raiding guilds would correctly see limiting themselves to one form of content as hindering their progress. Thus, Problem B is virtually fated to occur, with the same unhappy results and guild instability issues as Tier 4.
Is Blizzard directly responsible for this? No. But the problems that inadvertently resulted from the design of Tier 4 raid progression didn't escape their attention either.
Can we fix this by locking players into either 10-man or 25-man raids?
This is a possibility, but I believe it would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.
First, it eliminates the flexibility players currently enjoy with respect to how they want to experience these raids. At the moment, you can do one form of raiding with your guild, and another more informally with a group of friends, guildies, and alts if you want. Locking players out of one set of raids obviously kills this.
Secondly, it would severely limit player generosity with respect to bringing characters or alts to help friends' 10- or 25-man runs in the event of a player's departure or disconnect. Most people I know happily volunteer to bring a toon to help out in these situations, but I doubt they'd be happy to do so if it means the few bosses they'll see as a replacement player will shut down any other raiding they might have been able to do that week. No one's going to want to bring their toon in to help a 10-man raid stuck at Sapphiron and Kel'Thuzad if that means they can't enter Naxx-25.
Thirdly, I return to my original premise; people are relentlessly rational. If you can get 25-man content and 25-man gear at the 10-man level, this is a very strong incentive for players not to bother with 25-man raiding. I don't believe that locking players into either 10-mans or 25-mans would result in an instantaneous death for 25-man raiding, but as raiding guild attrition invariably takes its course, the temptation for many guild leaders in the long run is going to be downsizing their guilds and simply doing 10-man raids.

Again, I can't stress enough that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man does if you remove loot from the equation. With loot equalized, the 25-man is at a significant disadvantage that can hardly work to its longterm benefit. The question of whether 25-mans should remain in the game is one for a different day, but if we presume that they're here to stay, Blizzard is entirely correcting in creating incentives that make the 25-man a "rational" choice.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 7)
Caz Apr 24th 2009 11:26AM
my spelling today=fail
Wistin Apr 24th 2009 11:32AM
I think they have it worked out pretty well, really. The guild I am in is not large enough to do a 25 man. We did have almost enough interest exactly one raid day during the last cycle of WoTLK.
I do not agree with the sentiment that 10 man should be a trainer for 25 man. In some cases, 10 man is even harder than 25, but not to the degree that the loot has to be equal. It is as close to equal but seperate paths that I think they can do.
I'm fine with the way it is and do not begrudge any 25 man player what they find from their experiencing of the content.
temporis Apr 24th 2009 11:40AM
Because, Mowglie, there are only two reasons to do 25 man content: Better loot, and to polish your epeen at the bank in Dalaran in front of 10 man raiders. Epeen/ego is a powerful drug for some.
faradhim Apr 24th 2009 11:28AM
Excellent piece and great arguments. I do have one question that hasn't been answered by all this.
Why shouldn't blizzard let 25 men die?
We don't raid 40 men anymore and most of the population don't seem to care. If everything become 10 men. So what? Is that really bad?
Yeng Apr 24th 2009 11:46AM
In my opinion 25 man is more fun. It just seems more epic having that many people.
SmokeTheBear Apr 24th 2009 12:54PM
You're on to something, but I don't think you quite have it. Blizzard *should* let 25-man content die, but not for the reasons you suggest. The fact of the matter is, having some challenge for both coordination and preparation is fun, and 10-man content simply requires less of that. Larger content is a different way to experience the game, and for some people, that can be a lot of fun.
So, larger content should exist, but why 25? Why not 20? Why not let 10-man guilds scale up linearly to the next level of raiding organization? Given the choice between running two 10-man raids or one 20-man raid, I think most guilds (at least those with a good social dynamic) would prefer the 20-man, since getting to play with more of your friends is preferable than splitting up. The option of running two 10-man teams would still be there, but it would effectively erase the bottleneck of upward guild mobility.
Hell, why not allow for 10, 20, and 2x10 raids? That is, why not have an option for linking two 10-man raids in order to provide different achievements/rewards? Put in a linked-raid race, or a dungeon with two wings that can't be cleared by the same people within the same raidId (or which gives a 20-man raid the option of splitting into two 10-man teams to turn on a hard mode), and you have yet another way of experiencing the content, and one that encourages 10-man guilds to scale up (and provides a means for facilitating and promoting guild/raid alliances and other cooperative efforts).
Charlie Apr 24th 2009 1:06PM
It's a design issue. 25 mans can have more variance in their boss fights. One example would be, You can have an ability where you just insta kill a player every so often. In 10 man you can't do that due to the small number of people.
Other than that i just think 25 mans are more fun. They are more challenging this time around too (Challenge = fun, for me). I know my guilds 10 man group wiped the floor with kologarn and iron council on weds, but when we tried giga-gia (Read: Kologarn, go play Chorno Trigger =D), on thursday in our 25 man, he destroyed us. Damn grip.
Also, Allison. This is one of the most well thought out, articulated articles on wow insider ive seen in months, years even. Great great job.
Guido666 Apr 24th 2009 1:31PM
You never know, it may. They may also increase the difference in difficulty between 10 and 25, also. Part of it could be that they are just moving toward 25 going away slowly. Could you imagine the enormous uproar that would occur if they just announced tomorrow that it was going away?
I would compare it to the attitudes I hear so often about "How easy WotLK raiding is". I think the attitude stems from how our long-standing ideas about how we interpret difficults need to change. For years, "I beat the boss" was your badge of honor. I think it's still very difficult for people to wrap their head around the fact that such statements are no longer the measuring stick. Now you have to say "I beat the boss, on hard mode, with 3 drakes". See the difference? So when people say that it is easy, they are mostly claiming that just beating the boss is now easy, which is, as Blizzard would say, "working as intended".
I also want to say that I think this article was very well constructed, and is how all the WoW Insider articles should be. Great job, keep it up.
Doug DeJulio Apr 24th 2009 11:28AM
Your question was "How do you get people to do 25-man raids when they can see the same content in a 10-man with far less hassle?". I put forth that that's the wrong question -- you're taking for granted that 10-man is less hassle.
My own experience in the T7 content is, this is the opposite of true. More people were PUGing 25-mans than 10-mans.
I think that's the solution. Have 10 and 25 give the same gear, but intentionally make 25-man easier in terms of execution. One's easier in terms of cat-herding and logistics, the other is easier in terms of personal execution. Make 25-man PUGable and 10-man not PUGable.
Yeah, the crazy hardcore folks will run both. And they'll gear up faster. But they won't gear up to a higher end-point. And the mediocre players will still PUG the 25-mans, and will still see everything.
I don't get how this isn't win/win.
Amirite Apr 24th 2009 11:43AM
Nikkodemus...
There would be no reason to do the 10 mans if you can get your 24 friends that are good together, and have it be easy as all hell. Not all 25 man runs are a headache to put together, only some of them.
Arrowsmith Apr 24th 2009 11:34AM
I personally favor 10-mans simply because 10 people casting spells is a *LOT* easier on my computer than 25 people casting spells, and getting disconnected in the middle of a boss encounter is the most frustrating thing in the world (Damn you Thaddius). If it weren't for that, I'd be a happy bunny either way.
Nikkodemus Apr 24th 2009 11:33AM
You are missing the most obvious compromise between both positions.
That is to say make 10 man raiding provide a limited selection of BiS gear. This would let 10 man only casuals get /something/ that is BiS and give 25 man raiders an incentive to do both.
Alternatively, bring in some kind of "Hard Mode" based on casual questing.
For example, I was a casual in Vanilla WoW, and frankly the Quests for Tier 0.5 to upgrade the Blue Dungeon Set into Dungeon Set 2 were pretty tough. Why abandon that line of thought?
BitterCupOJoe Apr 24th 2009 12:25PM
That's not a terrible idea. Of course, BiS can change wildly from spec to spec, not just class to class, so it might be hard to make it divide evenly, but that's really not a bad line of thought to start down.
Karilyn Apr 24th 2009 11:34AM
Meh. I run both 10 mans and 25 mans because I gt bored during the week.
I just wish 10 mans gave me more of a reason to do it.
Zythern Apr 24th 2009 11:35AM
Good article, and I totally agree. 25man gear should be greater than 10man.
The problem for those of us in the 10 man content right now is Ulduar. Naxx was done well. I was able to progress through it accumulating gear and badges to buy equal gear and buy those pesky tokens when it seems my whole guild is on the same token.
With Ulduar the same is not true. I will be getting upgrades through the badges in Ulduar, but not on par with the gear that I am receiving. Plus I am now unable to purchase my tokens and have to pray to elune that I can win that roll.
I realize that Blizz did not want to make t8 available to 25man raiders with the ability to buy them with Valor. But my question this whole time is why not create a 4th emblem. Instead of giving 10man raiders the leftovers, create a new badge. They did it for 25man, why not 10.
Now 25man raiders have to do 10man content to get the 'easier' token. It seems like such a simple solution.
Now I am pretty sure that the ilvl between Valor gear and Ulduar 10 drops is different, with Ulduar 10 being one higher, but I could be wrong. However, that still leaves the token problem for us 10man raiders.
I would never argue that I should get the better gear when I do 10 mans. However, I will argue that I should get the same chance at purchasing my token with 25man raiders.
Sorrowind Apr 24th 2009 11:38AM
A big challenge I had with 10 man content was not with versions of tier set gear, but with other pieces, such as weapons and trinkets which were not duplicated in 10 man content with slightly reduced stats. As a rogue and shaman, I would have appreciated a reduced stat version of webbed death (1.4 speed), grim toll, or forethought talisman. These items are incredibly valuable for what they do, not just the stats on them and were not duplicated in lesser versions in 10 man content.
For these types of items, they should be available in 10 man content on hard mode, or with a reduced chance to drop in 10 man content.
FenSat Apr 24th 2009 11:38AM
Given the popularity of 10-mans, just why should Blizzard continue to focus on 25-man raids? Because failing to do so would break up large guilds or result in guilds running multiple 10-mans instead of 25-mans? Why is that necessarily a bad thing?
Yes, there are players who prefer the 25-man environment, and they might even be the majority of W0W Insider's readership, but I'd wager that the raiding player-base as a whole prefers the ten-man environment. Of course, I'd want to see numbers to prove or disprove that, so I'll let it stand as a suspicion I can't support at this point.
Allow me to play devil's advocate and say that 25-mans should not inherently award better loot just for requiring more bodies to complete; the raid should not be rewarded with better loot just because the raid leader has the patience and ability to herd 25 cats. 25-man loot should only be better if the mechanics of encounters require a demonstrable higher level of player skill. That simply wasn't the case for most encounters in Naxx, and it's too early for me to say that's the case for Ulduar, as I haven't seen much of it in both iterations.
But, back to the point: if it's a given that, if 25-mans and 10-mans awarded the same iLevel of loot that people would run 10-mans, that's a clear indicator of player preference, particularly since experience so far has shown that 10-mans have been more difficult (with a few exceptions). So, given that, why not focus more on developing for 10 mans, award the same loot, and allow those people who really, really want to play in a larger raid environment to do so but not be rewarded just because they prefer a larger group? (Yes, I know to some people 10-mans just aren't "epic" enough, and those people likely yearn for the return of 40-mans.)
In closing, I'm not really advocating this approach, but no one seems to be addressing the desire of players of maintaining 25-mans in the future. At the least, I think it's a question worth asking.
PopeJamal Apr 24th 2009 11:58AM
"25-mans should not inherently award better loot just for requiring more bodies to complete; the raid should not be rewarded with better loot just because the raid leader has the patience and ability to herd 25 cats. 25-man loot should only be better if the mechanics of encounters require a demonstrable higher level of player skill."
QFT
As an aside: I'd say that Blizz had every intention of breaking up raiding guilds. Otherwise, why would you choose to make a 25 man raid? 40 man content can be easily scaled down to two 20 man groups and it's as easy as pie to scale up and down between 10 and 20 man content. They added those 5 raid slots on purpose.
It's pretty simple really. They create all this "turbulence" on purpose to slow us down. It's one of the best ways to extend the life of the content without being obvious about it
AShadowPriest Apr 24th 2009 12:07PM
I have seen enough of Ulduar to say yes, 25 man does demand more out of players. The loot there is (baseline) only 7 ilevels higher than 10 man loot, so the difference isn't THAT significant for more encounters.
As I've said though, I think that the management of, and playing well with, 24 other people is significant enough on its own to deserve better loot.
Ron Apr 24th 2009 11:38AM
Epic post.