Loot, rationality, and the Sunwell effect, part II

What makes the 10-man raid so attractive?
In the absence of any loot concerns, you could reasonably say that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man. 10-mans are far simpler to organize and coordinate, generally faster to run, easier to administrate if you use DKP or loot council, and they make it a lot easier to guarantee consistent quality across the raid (the vast gulf between completion rates on Immortal versus Undying is a good clue to how this has worked out in practice). Blizzard is even more committed to the idea of BtPNtC for 10-mans, because they know you can't necessarily rely on the presence of every class. 10-man raids can also be more difficult than 25-mans, as we've seen in Tier 7, sating hardcore players' appetites for tough raid content and silencing critics who might otherwise dismiss them as 25-mans on training wheels. And, on top of everything else, 10-man raiders now see the exact same content as 25-man raiders.
Once you start adding all of this up, the situation starts to look pretty grim for 25-mans. If neither form of raiding awarded any loot and people did them purely for the pleasure of experiencing the content, there would be no external incentive to make 25-man raiding worth the time or effort.
Question: How do you get people to do 25-man raids when they can see the same content in a 10-man with far less hassle?
Answer: You can't.

Not unless you provide them with an incentive, and -- this is an MMORPG, right? -- that incentive is loot.
Shouldn't people do 25-mans just because they like 25-mans?
When you think about it, the only reason to do 25-man raids (if we remove loot from the equation) would be belonging to a guild with too many people to squeeze into a 10-man. Even then, I think the pressure on such a guild would be to form multiple 10-man raid teams rather than put the additional effort into running a 25-man.
Our poll results indicate that most people don't think players would bother running 25-mans if you could get the same gear elsewhere, so the question of "should" is almost beside the point. As much as I agree that players "should" run 25-mans if they prefer them, we're not giving them much reason to arrive at that preference. It's irrational to expect that most people would prefer to do the exact same raid content with more logistical difficulties for no additional reward. The history of player behavior serves to demonstrate that players are quite rational indeed, and are quick to notice, evaluate, and adopt the most efficient means of character advancement.
What happens if we standardize loot quality across 10-man and 25-man raids?
If I were a Blizzard developer sitting in my office sipping gin on some idle Thursday and I were asked about it, my response would be that gear equalization between 10-man and 25-man raids would result in two intractable problems:

Problem A: Players would gear up significantly faster.
If you could get best-in-slot gear in both 10-man and 25-man raids, hardcore or otherwise serious raiders would run both obsessively in order to gear up as quickly as possible for the extra advantage on hard-mode achievements and encounters like Algalon. This may sound great to players, but it's not such a great deal for Blizzard, which spent months working on this content and has both a business and design interest in extending its lifespan. And in the long run, any honest player would admit that conquering all of the game's content as quickly as possible isn't an ideal way to experience it.
There is no way for Blizzard to design and program content fast enough to keep up with the demands of a guild like Ensidia, but if a much wider swathe of the game population is no different in exhausting its gear and content offerings within weeks of a content patch's release, the developers have a problem. Raid lockouts and the distribution of gear into different 10-man and 25-man i-levels are two of the last pacing mechanisms Blizzard continues to use to keep players from trying to get everything they want immediately. It strikes me as unwise to eliminate the latter, particularly in an age where raid content is meant to be more accessible (i.e. easier).
I think the new form of pacing mechanism we've seen -- the 1-hour-per-week Algalon attempt -- may be the first of many such 1-hour or otherwise short-duration lockouts.
Problem B: Assuming A occurs, we don't want a repeat of the organizational nightmare that arose in early Tier 4 content.
The Karazhan-to-Gruul's leap in Tier 4 absolutely destroyed a number of guilds for precisely this reason; what did you do about the extra 5 people? A 25-man raiding guild doesn't break down evenly into either 2 10-man or 3 10-man teams, period. Either you pick the former and screw 5 people out of a raid slot every week, or you draft additional friend-rank or PuG players with less experience and gear to fill the slots on the 3rd 10-man team. While the situation was undeniably exacerbated by the downsizing of 40-man raids to 25-mans, guild leaders went insane trying to keep every player rotated into the content they needed without leaving anyone out, favoring players in needed roles, or coming up short when they tried to do Gruul's.

Again, I really do not believe that standardizing gear drops across both tiers of raid content would result in 25-man players continuing to do 25-mans just because they prefer them, and 10-man players continuing to do 10-mans just because they prefer them. Competitive or otherwise serious raiding guilds would correctly see limiting themselves to one form of content as hindering their progress. Thus, Problem B is virtually fated to occur, with the same unhappy results and guild instability issues as Tier 4.
Is Blizzard directly responsible for this? No. But the problems that inadvertently resulted from the design of Tier 4 raid progression didn't escape their attention either.
Can we fix this by locking players into either 10-man or 25-man raids?
This is a possibility, but I believe it would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.
First, it eliminates the flexibility players currently enjoy with respect to how they want to experience these raids. At the moment, you can do one form of raiding with your guild, and another more informally with a group of friends, guildies, and alts if you want. Locking players out of one set of raids obviously kills this.
Secondly, it would severely limit player generosity with respect to bringing characters or alts to help friends' 10- or 25-man runs in the event of a player's departure or disconnect. Most people I know happily volunteer to bring a toon to help out in these situations, but I doubt they'd be happy to do so if it means the few bosses they'll see as a replacement player will shut down any other raiding they might have been able to do that week. No one's going to want to bring their toon in to help a 10-man raid stuck at Sapphiron and Kel'Thuzad if that means they can't enter Naxx-25.
Thirdly, I return to my original premise; people are relentlessly rational. If you can get 25-man content and 25-man gear at the 10-man level, this is a very strong incentive for players not to bother with 25-man raiding. I don't believe that locking players into either 10-mans or 25-mans would result in an instantaneous death for 25-man raiding, but as raiding guild attrition invariably takes its course, the temptation for many guild leaders in the long run is going to be downsizing their guilds and simply doing 10-man raids.

Again, I can't stress enough that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man does if you remove loot from the equation. With loot equalized, the 25-man is at a significant disadvantage that can hardly work to its longterm benefit. The question of whether 25-mans should remain in the game is one for a different day, but if we presume that they're here to stay, Blizzard is entirely correcting in creating incentives that make the 25-man a "rational" choice.
Patch 5.3 interview with Ghostcrawler
Mystery of the Unborn Val'kyr
The latest patch 5.3 news
All of the latest Mists of Pandaria news





Reader Comments (Page 5 of 7)
schadenfreudster Apr 24th 2009 11:37PM
First of all, Allison, I would KILL if my students wrote half as well as you do; it's really a delight to read both your prose and your argumentation. Less pedantically: I heart you big time. I agree with everything you've written here, but feel that you leave one crucial thing out.
That crucial thing, which other posters have commented on, is that the current system unfairly leaves 10-man raiders stuck with the "old" Naxx-25 badge gear. Given the ease of 25-Naxx pugging, many of them likely had that gear already; even if they didn't, it cheats them of one big aspect of the sense of newness that's a chief incentive to do new content. I think Ulduar-10 is a lot harder than Naxx-25; Ulduar-10 raiders shouldn't really be consigned to wearing the "cast-me-downs" of players in bigger guilds. It would not have been that hard for Blizzard to create a fourth badge-loot table for them; I think it's a shame that they didn't.
But as I say, wonderfully written and well-reasoned post, 99% of which I agree with.
Charneldeath Apr 24th 2009 1:33PM
Funny thing.
Ulduar 10 hard modes drop multiple Conquest. True story! So just like 25's, farm the instance, gear up, do hard modes, get better loot!
Who would have thought?
Puntable Apr 24th 2009 1:10PM
25man loot should be better than 10man loot. 25man raids should also be harder than 10man raids. This is where the system fails.
Anid Maro Apr 24th 2009 1:13PM
Of course, giving lesser loot to small membership guilds is also "punishing"... so I guess the current model is also retarded.
Furthermore one could easily argue that smaller guilds would be rewarded for playing well. In other words, a smaller guild that could only field a 10 man would only be "punished" if they were not good enough to do a 10 man regardless of the size of their guild.
But thanks for calling the idea retarded, I mean that was totally insightful of you and truly shows the depth of your argument.
Anid Maro May 26th 2009 3:49AM
Damnit, supposed to be a reply to Smokey up there... I guess that shows how smart I am. :P
SmokeTheBear Apr 24th 2009 1:24PM
Fine, you want something more insightful and in-depth?
Your idea would force players to gear up through 25-mans in order to complete 10-mans as the path of least resistance. It would effectively kill the 10-man raiding guild entirely. At that point, why have 10-man raids at all? Why not just have 25-man raids with more "do this with X players" (where X is less than 25) achievements?
I'm in a 10-man raiding guild. We sometimes fill spots in other guilds' 25-mans, because these other guilds know that we bring skilled people, but we just aren't big enough to run 25-man content on our own without turning raiding into a job. We like 10-man content because it allows us to play with the same people that have been the rock-solid core of our guild for 3 years, and not be forced to bring in other people we don't know as well.
I'm perfectly happy with the quality disparity between 10- and 25-man raids. I think Allison's article is spot-on. My only concern is that players who choose to focus entirely on 10-man raids can continue to progress through those raids without being forced into 25-mans. There are certain idols and trinkets and things that violate this concept, and I'm not thrilled with that, but I think Blizzard is moving in the right direction as far as their raid philosophy is concerned.
Killing my guild is not "another idea worth mentioning." It is absurd, unrealistic, and a "solution" which is far worse than the problem it's trying to solve.
Ferarro Apr 24th 2009 1:15PM
World first sneak peak at the boss that "feeds off your tears"?
A 10-man.
/end thread
Charneldeath Apr 24th 2009 1:29PM
^ This
FenSat Apr 24th 2009 1:38PM
I suspect that this has more to do with their being no "Server First" achievement for the 10-mans than it does with difficulty level. I'm not debating the fact that 10-mans might be easier in Ulduar, but concluding that 10-mans are easier just because a guild took their time in a 10-man environment and did all the hard mode achievements required to unlock 10 man Algalon is a logical fallacious argument to even insinuate.
Short version: no push for world and/or server firsts in 25-man content would mean you would have likely seen this preview in 25-man mode first.
Ferarro Apr 24th 2009 1:44PM
"but concluding that 10-mans are easier just because a guild took their time in a 10-man environment and did all the hard mode achievements required to unlock 10 man Algalon is a logical fallacious argument to even insinuate."
Actually is 100% indicative. How fast do you think it would take Ensidia or Method to clear 10-man, including Algalon? They would probably already have it done by now or at least to 50% or so. A lesser guild has cleared Ulduar on hard mode and even engaged the highly-touted guild destroyer, and I hardly think that guild is better, most skilled, geared and coordinated than Ensidia, Method, etc.
The people wanting equal loot in 10-mans are people who are either a.) not good enough for 25-man content OR [please note the "or" here] b.) are just stuck in a 10-man raiding guild.
Wall Apr 24th 2009 2:02PM
"The people wanting equal loot in 10-mans are people who are either a.) not good enough for 25-man content OR [please note the "or" here] b.) are just stuck in a 10-man raiding guild."
"Stuck" implies you have no choice but to raid 10-mans. Many of us prefer the 10-man versions over the 25-mans, it's hard to believe I know.
bob Apr 24th 2009 2:55PM
@ Ferarro
Your argument is ridiculously flawed, to the point you should be ashamed for making it. You cannot compare the success of any given 25 man raid group in the 10 man version since they already out-gear the instance.
I love when people say things like "My guild did Ulduar-10 last night, on our off-night for 25-man raiding. I was blown away by how much easier it was. It's ridiculous."
Of course it is. It's like going back into Kara after farming SSC/TK and being surprised that it's so much easier.
Ferarro Apr 24th 2009 3:57PM
"You cannot compare the success of any given 25 man raid group in the 10 man version since they already out-gear the instance."
That's because...
"It's like going back into Kara after farming SSC/TK and being surprised that it's so much easier."
Ulduar 10-man is easier than Ulduar 25-man. I've fully cleared them both with Heroes and Valorous gear, respectively. Thorim is possibly the only encounter I can think of that's possibly more complicated than the 25-man version, but only because we only ran with 2 healers (Holy Paladin / Disc Priest).
Everyone can break it down the size of a raid further and further and further, from 40 mans < 25 mans < 10 mans < 5-man H MagT < 3v3 arena, all the way down to 1v1 duels being truly the hardest content in the game because, "you're only relying on yourself and no one can carry you and it takes every spell you have and you can't just spam one button." Of course it takes more to win a 1v1 than it does to heal Loatheb. But does that mean everyone who wins a duel should get a ilvl 232 reward after every match? No. That's retarded. There comes a point where those comparisons get ridiculous and that point is 10-man vs. 25-man.
Virtually every time someone says "25-man content is harder than 10-man content", everyone who raids 10-mans is immediately insulted, as if someone said, "everyone in 25-man content is better and more skilled at the game than people who raid 10-man content," but that's not always the case. It's not mutually exclusive. A good (but rare) example would be Sarth-3D, which was just as hard - if not harder - on 10-man than it was on 25-man. I personally didn't see much of a difference, but I could understand how others felt that way.
Ulduar is different, however. My guild cleared Ignis before the nerf and hotfixes (lawl one shotting people in the crotch bucket) in my pre-raid 10-man runs, but doing it in 25-man took a full week and a half. Same with Mimiron. Again in full Heroes (T7), we got to him and downed him on our 3rd day of raiding. But it took us two weeks to get to him in our 25-man raids wearing Valorous (T7.5). Ulduar is different than Naxx, and clearing it on 25-man is much more difficult and time-consuming than it is on 10-man. As it should be.
But even if you ignore the "difficulty" aspect, as I said before, it takes much more time, mats, coordination, teamwork, dedication, luck, and dozens of more "x-factors" and tangible elements to have a successful 25 raid than it does for a 10. And no one can argue that. That alone merits greater reward.
AyaJulia Apr 24th 2009 1:36PM
My guild did Ulduar-10 last night, on our off-night for 25-man raiding.
I was blown away by how much easier it was. It's ridiculous. If 25-man loot wasn't better, I'm not sure I'd ever set foot in one again.
BillDoor Apr 24th 2009 1:51PM
You wore all your 25-man gear, right? So, you're saying that an instance that you already know the fights for AND overgear is easy?
Wall Apr 24th 2009 2:06PM
...what BillDoor said. Of course the 10-man version will be easier since you are a tier ahead of the players who are supposed to play it. It doesn't make a huge difference, but it does matter. And having been through the fights before, that also matters. Still, I would think the 10-man version is easier, sure.
Pfooti Apr 24th 2009 1:37PM
Very well analyzed, Allison. I enjoyed it.
BillDoor Apr 24th 2009 1:51PM
I must be weird, I prefer raiding with 25-people because I can play with all of my friends, rather than having to have a few of them sit out for 10-man content. Loot is irrelevant.
Wall Apr 24th 2009 2:23PM
Best comment in this thread so far. In the end, it's all about having fun - gear is cool, but not completely necessary. :)
jaynitan Apr 24th 2009 1:59PM
Sarth 3D 10 man and Sarth 3D 25man. . . . . . .. the 10 man loot should be better. Not all encounters can be scaled with HP and damage that is the most obvious.
I think 25 man loot should be better based on the difficulty of getting 25 ppl to show up, stay online, do their job, and hopefully stay alive. . . . that is tough in and of itself.
Blizz is pretty much on the right track. I miss old BC raids and badges where if you raided and did 5 mans a lot if you never got good drops you could get good gear eventually.
I understand that they don't want people gearing entireyl from badges now. The tiered badges are a good idea but they are poorly implemented.
I am hoping the next incarnation of badges will somehow be better, the BOA account items was an idea way overdo, but for gearing up your main character the options are very limited.
Perhaps in the future their can be 5man badges, 10 man badges, and 25 badges. Because people might be able to churn out vast amounts of 5man badges in a week, the badges should buy lesser gear. Say for instance, make heroics be able to buy ilvl 200 gear up to a complete set. And some BOA items.
Make 10 man drop badges for 210 gear, and 25 mans drop give 217 gear.
That way you can change the number of badges for gear from 5man to 10man/25man, because of raid lockouts you are limited to a certain (lower number of badges per week)
If you run 5mans all day long all day strong you won't get the same gear as a 10man.
I would like to see something a little different maybe,
Wow can create a sort of relational DKP, give every 10 man boss 12 item drops, 2 for actual gear, the rest are badges. THe player would get the option of choosing either gear OR a badge.
So if you want loot you get loot, if you don't want or can't use you get a badge.
There would be no vendor for this badge. You can turn badges in in sets of 5 when you get ready to kill a boss. When people turn in 25 badges (half the raid) at a given boss the boss would drop an additional item. The max badges per run for a turn in would be 50 to make a boss drop 2 extra items.
Maybe instead of efore the boss, you just use them as keys to open a chest that all bosses would have with them. The chests , would contain extra loot from the boss's loot table I mean after all the boss stashed all that loot somewhere right?
My idea is that one person can save 25 badges to open extra chests from the boss of his/her choice if searching for that one piece of gear. It would limit blizz item creation department, less purples to design.
People and/or guilds could save badges to chose bosses to try and get gear for raiders or as individuals.
Trying to get the warglaives of Ilidan? no guarantee with badges but if you raid for a year and never even see them, well if you use your badges you up your chances.
This isn;t intended to be finished system, just an idea.