Loot, rationality, and the Sunwell effect, part II

What makes the 10-man raid so attractive?
In the absence of any loot concerns, you could reasonably say that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man. 10-mans are far simpler to organize and coordinate, generally faster to run, easier to administrate if you use DKP or loot council, and they make it a lot easier to guarantee consistent quality across the raid (the vast gulf between completion rates on Immortal versus Undying is a good clue to how this has worked out in practice). Blizzard is even more committed to the idea of BtPNtC for 10-mans, because they know you can't necessarily rely on the presence of every class. 10-man raids can also be more difficult than 25-mans, as we've seen in Tier 7, sating hardcore players' appetites for tough raid content and silencing critics who might otherwise dismiss them as 25-mans on training wheels. And, on top of everything else, 10-man raiders now see the exact same content as 25-man raiders.
Once you start adding all of this up, the situation starts to look pretty grim for 25-mans. If neither form of raiding awarded any loot and people did them purely for the pleasure of experiencing the content, there would be no external incentive to make 25-man raiding worth the time or effort.
Question: How do you get people to do 25-man raids when they can see the same content in a 10-man with far less hassle?
Answer: You can't.

Not unless you provide them with an incentive, and -- this is an MMORPG, right? -- that incentive is loot.
Shouldn't people do 25-mans just because they like 25-mans?
When you think about it, the only reason to do 25-man raids (if we remove loot from the equation) would be belonging to a guild with too many people to squeeze into a 10-man. Even then, I think the pressure on such a guild would be to form multiple 10-man raid teams rather than put the additional effort into running a 25-man.
Our poll results indicate that most people don't think players would bother running 25-mans if you could get the same gear elsewhere, so the question of "should" is almost beside the point. As much as I agree that players "should" run 25-mans if they prefer them, we're not giving them much reason to arrive at that preference. It's irrational to expect that most people would prefer to do the exact same raid content with more logistical difficulties for no additional reward. The history of player behavior serves to demonstrate that players are quite rational indeed, and are quick to notice, evaluate, and adopt the most efficient means of character advancement.
What happens if we standardize loot quality across 10-man and 25-man raids?
If I were a Blizzard developer sitting in my office sipping gin on some idle Thursday and I were asked about it, my response would be that gear equalization between 10-man and 25-man raids would result in two intractable problems:

Problem A: Players would gear up significantly faster.
If you could get best-in-slot gear in both 10-man and 25-man raids, hardcore or otherwise serious raiders would run both obsessively in order to gear up as quickly as possible for the extra advantage on hard-mode achievements and encounters like Algalon. This may sound great to players, but it's not such a great deal for Blizzard, which spent months working on this content and has both a business and design interest in extending its lifespan. And in the long run, any honest player would admit that conquering all of the game's content as quickly as possible isn't an ideal way to experience it.
There is no way for Blizzard to design and program content fast enough to keep up with the demands of a guild like Ensidia, but if a much wider swathe of the game population is no different in exhausting its gear and content offerings within weeks of a content patch's release, the developers have a problem. Raid lockouts and the distribution of gear into different 10-man and 25-man i-levels are two of the last pacing mechanisms Blizzard continues to use to keep players from trying to get everything they want immediately. It strikes me as unwise to eliminate the latter, particularly in an age where raid content is meant to be more accessible (i.e. easier).
I think the new form of pacing mechanism we've seen -- the 1-hour-per-week Algalon attempt -- may be the first of many such 1-hour or otherwise short-duration lockouts.
Problem B: Assuming A occurs, we don't want a repeat of the organizational nightmare that arose in early Tier 4 content.
The Karazhan-to-Gruul's leap in Tier 4 absolutely destroyed a number of guilds for precisely this reason; what did you do about the extra 5 people? A 25-man raiding guild doesn't break down evenly into either 2 10-man or 3 10-man teams, period. Either you pick the former and screw 5 people out of a raid slot every week, or you draft additional friend-rank or PuG players with less experience and gear to fill the slots on the 3rd 10-man team. While the situation was undeniably exacerbated by the downsizing of 40-man raids to 25-mans, guild leaders went insane trying to keep every player rotated into the content they needed without leaving anyone out, favoring players in needed roles, or coming up short when they tried to do Gruul's.

Again, I really do not believe that standardizing gear drops across both tiers of raid content would result in 25-man players continuing to do 25-mans just because they prefer them, and 10-man players continuing to do 10-mans just because they prefer them. Competitive or otherwise serious raiding guilds would correctly see limiting themselves to one form of content as hindering their progress. Thus, Problem B is virtually fated to occur, with the same unhappy results and guild instability issues as Tier 4.
Is Blizzard directly responsible for this? No. But the problems that inadvertently resulted from the design of Tier 4 raid progression didn't escape their attention either.
Can we fix this by locking players into either 10-man or 25-man raids?
This is a possibility, but I believe it would ultimately cause more problems than it would solve.
First, it eliminates the flexibility players currently enjoy with respect to how they want to experience these raids. At the moment, you can do one form of raiding with your guild, and another more informally with a group of friends, guildies, and alts if you want. Locking players out of one set of raids obviously kills this.
Secondly, it would severely limit player generosity with respect to bringing characters or alts to help friends' 10- or 25-man runs in the event of a player's departure or disconnect. Most people I know happily volunteer to bring a toon to help out in these situations, but I doubt they'd be happy to do so if it means the few bosses they'll see as a replacement player will shut down any other raiding they might have been able to do that week. No one's going to want to bring their toon in to help a 10-man raid stuck at Sapphiron and Kel'Thuzad if that means they can't enter Naxx-25.
Thirdly, I return to my original premise; people are relentlessly rational. If you can get 25-man content and 25-man gear at the 10-man level, this is a very strong incentive for players not to bother with 25-man raiding. I don't believe that locking players into either 10-mans or 25-mans would result in an instantaneous death for 25-man raiding, but as raiding guild attrition invariably takes its course, the temptation for many guild leaders in the long run is going to be downsizing their guilds and simply doing 10-man raids.

Again, I can't stress enough that the 10-man raid has a lot more going for it than the 25-man does if you remove loot from the equation. With loot equalized, the 25-man is at a significant disadvantage that can hardly work to its longterm benefit. The question of whether 25-mans should remain in the game is one for a different day, but if we presume that they're here to stay, Blizzard is entirely correcting in creating incentives that make the 25-man a "rational" choice.
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Reader Comments (Page 7 of 7)
Animalis Apr 25th 2009 5:30PM
TY again Allison for a great article. I would read your stuff even if i quit WoW and stopped playing my druid tank.
Shardrell Apr 25th 2009 6:01PM
Even if I don't entirely agree with this article, kudos on a very well written and argued piece.
I have to say that as a DPS player, 10 person dungeons tend to be more challenging than 25. Frankly, once you learn an encounter, it's not all that difficult to move where you need to move and stay out of the "poop". What is difficult is to do all those things while maintaining a strong DPS rotation, especially if you're melee DPS like I am. 10 person groups simply require more out of an individual DPSer than 25 person groups. I feel more of a sense of accomplishment when I'm one of 5 DPS battling against an enrage timer than I do randomly spamming attacks while attempting not to lag out in a 25 person group.
But in the end I raid 10 over 25 because I prefer a small, stable community of people that is guaranteed jerk-free. Larger groups just have a higher chance to end up with that one really obnoxious person on the roster, because they're desperate for a healer, or whatever. BiS loot just isn't all that huge of an incentive for me.
Should be interesting to see if there are more shifts back to 10 person raids with Ulduar. The hangers-on who didn't work hard but could be carried through Naxx 25 are likely to screw things up for the group in Ulduar 25. I bet some folks will go back to 10s with their smaller group of competent friends rather than chain wipe in 25.
BoomkinGait Apr 26th 2009 6:32AM
I have never before commented on a post... but that was really a great article. I was already in agreement with the author's conclusion, but was interested in hearing the reasoning.
This article has to be the most well-reasoned, rationally organized argument on the topic that I have yet encountered.
Exellent work. Kudos.
Nathanyel Apr 27th 2009 8:57AM
10man Hardmode loot should be better than 25man normal loot. Killing a 10man boss on Hardmode is way harder than finding a PuG group to down the easy first half of Ulduar 25.
Shyraia Apr 28th 2009 7:16AM
One of the points is easily solved.
5 man
10 man
20 man
I still don't see why the extra 5 have to be in there to make it 25 man.
Vetali Apr 28th 2009 12:37PM
Who are you? That was the best written, best reasoned, most intelligent article I've ever read on Wowinsider.
Thanks.
Eleece May 1st 2009 1:17PM
Honestly, I do think player should still have incentives to goto 25, but I don't think it should be in the ilvls and effectiveness of the gear. You should get bonus stuff for the organization nightmare that is the 25 man, but there are plenty of great incentives you can come up with otherwise. You could do things like: enchants that put cool effects on your armor, Tabards that look cool, Mounts that are slightly faster then normal mounts, Hearthstones with a shorter cooldown then the normal one, an item that teleports your group to the meeting stone, Cool 25 only pet drops, bags that have additional slots... insert other cool reward here.
I run a successful 25man and I absolutely hate doing it. I have to put together my guild, with another guild, and find 5 extra people to go do it. It's an organizational nightmare that's just not fun at all. I work full time, and spending over and hour per raid doing organizational nonsense is just not fun for a game.
Now the first point I would make is sure, it was blizzard intention to make the 25s easier then the 10 man dungeons which they keep mentioning they failed with on Tier 7 fights. What this did show is it can be done. You can make very interesting and fun 10 man fights which are in fact harder then the 25 man version of the same content.
Other thing I don't like about 25s being better gear then their 10 counterparts is the 25 man gear completely trivializes the 10 man content. If you give better gear to players in the 25 version and you make the 10 man content easier, when you take the 25 man raiders to 10 man it completely trivializes the content.
People also always talk about how much longer 25s take, which is complete crap. If your 25s are taking longer then a 10 man dungeon it's because people are frequently AFK'ing, you're surrounded by ADD children, or you're running your raid poorly. It makes complete sense that you can clear 25s faster also due to the ratios of people. When you've got 2 healers - 6 DPS - 2 tanks vs 5 - 6 Healers, 16 - 18 DPS, 2 - 3 Tanks, with the larger ratio of DPS it's easier to clear much faster if you keep things moving.
I tend to go on and on when this arguement starts it, but my main point being you can keep the gear lvls the same, add other incentives to do 25 man content, and it's better for the content as a whole because one set of the content doesn't completely trivialize the other, and 25 and raiders still get the "coolness" / ego boost they're looking for.
ucntcme May 25th 2009 4:17PM
A side thought Blizzard may be working with that I don't see here is the geared vs non-geared 80. I started playing about a year ago, and I voluntarily play on a PvP server knowing what it means. Being PvP does not mean being an arse.
After hitting 70 the raiding (aka geared) 70's took great pleasure in ganking anyone freshly minted as a 70 (moreso than the 69s even). Why? Boredom is one reason. For example 80s hanging out in level 72 areas ganking level 71 and 72s before 3.1.
Another is the gear difference. A freshly minted 70 had absolutely zero chance against a sunwell raider for example. Even a few freshly minted had zero chance, the gear was that vastly different. The worst part was there was zero chance for the fresh 70 to get anywhere near enough gear to at least stand a remote chance.
When Wrath hit, and we all hit 80, those same 70's that were ganking nub 70's were not rabidly attacking fresh 80s (yes, some of us keep track). Why? We were not the equivalent of 10 levels behind; we were not easy pickings. In short, we were not free Honor Kills to boost their e-peen. In fact, at 80 I personally wiped the floor with several of those that had previously been ganking me at 70. Thus it was not even a matter of player skill.
Now where this ties into the discussion is the relative speed/ease of getting some gear as a freshly minted 80, and the velocity of progression gear upgrades. The so-called "half tier" difference is a rather neat solution to this problem, intentionally or otherwise.
As a 10 man Naxx or even Heroics 80, I could stand my ground with Best-in-Slot 80s. I may win I may lose. By slowing the progression of gear down this disparity is such that it allows a fighting chance, and it scales with 3.1 and 3.2.
Naxx being easy mode may be the best mistake Blizzard has made in a long time. Freshly minted 80s (alts or new players) will be able to jump into a few heroics, and even 25 man naxx farm pugs. This will quickly bring them to a reasonable gear level vis-a-vis Ulduar level players. When the boredom between Ulduar and 3.2 sinks in, ganking of the sort in BC last year will, I predict, be far less. A group of 2-3 somewhat fresh 80s will be able to fend of the lone 80BiS raider who is bored.
Ultimately, in my opinion, whether 10M or 25M should be better gear is less relevant to how _much_ the gear is different. No more than half a tier should keep that disparity down and thus limit the "damage" done by the "hardcore" when content is all on farm. Those who do not raid harcore, be it 10 or 25, hardmode or not, should have a reasonable chance to get gear that prevents the majority of those who do from having free reign on PvP servers. Sure, PvE will usually suffer in regards to PvP geared layers in PvP. It is the PvE where I see the balance being more important and manageable.