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6-11-2009 @ 5:42PM
While each individual event has a 1% chance of happening, over the course of everything happening, the odds of it having happened in any of the attempts prior goes up. The fallacy is when people do this additively, not when people do this at all. So in the red marble / blue marble example, after 100 bags, the 101st bag as an individual event, you have a 1% chance at grabbing it, however, at the 101st bag, you have a much higher chance of having seen a red marble than 1% before that bag.So with a condom having a 99% success rate, the odds of you getting an infection on each individual sexual encounter do not go up, however, after having sex 2000 times, the odds of you having an infection are much higher than 1%.
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