I'm not up on the lore timelines, but I'm a bit confused by your comments, Mike.
You said "we were told by the panel (including Chris Metzen) that the movie is supposed to start a year before WoW begins, which means Arthas is sitting up in Icecrown doing a whole lot of nothing." But Arthas had a career before moving to Icecrown, including that little regicide/patricide kerfuffle. So even if the movie does still occur in that "one year before WoW", Arthas is still very much in the picture, just not as the Lich King, but rather as an heir to the (warm and comfy, not frozen) throne.

But I tend to agree that what Raimi wants to do is different from what Blizz were contemplating two years ago. He could very well think the story of Arthas and his fall and subsequent transformation into the Lich King and his efforts there with the scourge would make for a great movie, and he'd be right.

Sam Raimi + hordes of undead Scourge under the leadership of a tragic, fallen, magically transformed and possessed being=very likely I'd say.

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