Is WoW's audience still increasing?
by Mike Schramm 
Sep 29th 2009 at 3:00PM
Now, the first issue we'd have with these numbers is the situation in China -- Hunter doesn't mention it at all, and in fact his graph (from comScore) doesn't have any dips at all in it, even though the game, and presumably its millions of players, went offline over there earlier this year. That right there throws a wrench into all of these estimations -- it's very likely comScore's information is just plain wrong.
But then again, Ghostcrawler himself told us recently that subscriber numbers are still growing, and the last "official" numbers we heard were from nearly a year ago, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Blizzard is close to 13 million, if not there yet (many Chinese players, we've also heard, could have transferred over to Taiwanese servers. Of course, if this is true, and WoW is bigger than ever, odds are that we'll hear it officially from Blizzard soon -- they're not shy about sharing information about the game, especially when it's good news for them. If there really are over 13 million computers in the world running World of Warcraft, don't be suprised to see that information in an official press release sooner rather than later.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Virtual selves, Odds and ends, Blizzard, Rumors
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Lemons Sep 29th 2009 3:07PM
My issue with these numbers is that if WoW has added 2 million more players why doesn't Blizzard just come out and say so? That kind of growth is something they should be bragging about.
My guess is that while WoW is technically still growing it's only been by a much more modest percentage, otherwise Blizzard would be yelling about it.
Kyle Sep 29th 2009 3:45PM
Blizzard tries to refrain from putting out anything that will fuel the haters. If they post good numbers then its marked up to inflation/shady tactic, If they show even the slightest decline then it bemoans the coming death of WOW.
I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers went up or stayed a little more solid than you would expect after the initial expansion frenzy. I know with how expensive everything is right now I end up playing alot more WOW (sometimes more than i'd like when im bored) because it is a fairly cheap form of entertainment, that i can do at home with my family. Several of my friends have downloaded skype and resubbed for the same reason.
Jeff Sep 29th 2009 3:07PM
Even if they are slowing down, it's been almost a year since WotLK arrived, there's bound to be a little stagnation of the playerbase. If the subscriptions are slowing down at all, they're sure to shoot right back up once Cataclysm hits.
Freak Mojo Sep 29th 2009 3:10PM
I blame recruit-a-friend for inflating the actual numbers :P
Bravofox Sep 29th 2009 3:12PM
Blizzard knows how to cash-in, don't they? ;)
Netherscourge Sep 29th 2009 3:11PM
I don't believe that chart at all. For one, there's probably several thousand (if not million) gold/item farming and selling accounts in there that are shut down every day and then reopened in new accounts to keep the gold flowing.
Secondly, WoW China probably has around 4 million gamers, if not more, that were shut-out for a while.
I think WoW's REAL population of actual PLAYERS is around 8 million worldwide.
But I have the same level of credibility as MediaMetrix, so feel free to make up your own numbers too :p
Amapele Sep 29th 2009 3:24PM
Although in comparison to gold and item farmers it's probably a fairly small population, I think we have to factor in individuals that have multiple accounts.
Jon Do Sep 29th 2009 3:38PM
@Netherscourge
Nothing personal, but I trust a product (MediaMatrix) of a company (comScore inc.) listed on the global NASDAQ (keyword: SCOR) more than your word.
Hollow Leviathan Sep 29th 2009 6:42PM
Just because they're a company doesn't mean they don't have to show their numbers and be credible based on empirical evidence. It is one persons word against a company, but they're both using the same data as their source and speculating wildly from there.
Is the company more reliable than someone who has personal experience from inside the game? I don't see a rationale elevating either of them as superior logicsmithery.
prenden2 Sep 29th 2009 6:51PM
I'm sure at one point or another, Enron was a listed company too. ^^
Deathgodryuk Sep 29th 2009 7:53PM
You know, most of those Chinese gamers could have still just moved over to a Taiwanese account just like Stars did... Just because they didn't have a Chinese company providing the game to them doesn't mean they didn't have access to it at all.
Babasyzygy Sep 30th 2009 2:26AM
So you're saying that there are 5 million gold farmers selling to 8 million players? I don't think you've thought those numbers through.
I really don't think the cash flow is there to support those kinds of numbers - 5 million farmers times $15 per month would have to sell a whole lot of gold per "real" player - even with NO profit margin or cost per emloyee, every single player would have to spend (on average) around $10/month, which is quite a silly-large number.
And again, that's with *no* profit, which would leave no reason for them to be doing it. More likely there's something like a 50% cost-of-production, which is more typical of businesses.
Pure by the necessities of the cash flow, I think you're off by at least an order of magnitude - which would suggest something more like 12.5 million humans and .6 million gold farming accounts.
Gareth Sep 30th 2009 5:06AM
I think this chart is rubbish too, as someone else pointed out we have one other source of information that is a little more reliable, warcraft realms. Now based on that check this out
http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyactivity.php?serverid=-1
It shows the past years activity, its flat lined for each class more or less, but since one new class was added (Deathknights) then it spiked up and then appears to go down/stay flat.
Its too noisy to say for sure its going down, but its definitely not going up from that, so unless lots of people are moving towards playing only one character over time I'd say this chart shows flat or a decline, my bet would be a slow decline.
You can see the jump for the 3.2 patch, and something happened around march too (cannot remember here). One thing that has been noted, as WoW ages the cycle of people playing content and getting bored with it has been getting faster.
rosencratz Sep 30th 2009 7:46AM
"For one, there's probably several thousand (if not million) gold/item farming and selling accounts in there that are shut down every day and then reopened in new accounts to keep the gold flowing.
" - netherscourge
Why don't you try counting to 1 million because you don't appear to comprehend how big a number that is. you really think there could be "several million"(let alone 1 million) gold/item farming and selling accounts?
p.s/ Who cares and why are people kicking up a fuss that Blizz aren't "keeping us up to date" on the numbers? Gameplay updates are interesting more of those please.
SerenityNow Sep 29th 2009 3:15PM
"many Chinese players, we've also heard, could have transferred over to Taiwanese servers. Of course, if this is true, and WoW is bigger than ever, odds are that we'll hear it officially from Blizzard soon"
Not necessarily. Given all the grief Blizzard has had getting WoW back up and running in China, they might be deliberately keeping quiet about increased subscriber numbers. Drawing attention, even indirectly, to a lot of Chinese consumers switching to Taiwanese servers is like poking a very big bear with a sharp, pointy stick.
Aaron Sep 29th 2009 3:32PM
and then aggroing every other bear in the zone. ; ) I'm with you on this one, I think PR is involved.
sd_fuller Sep 29th 2009 3:17PM
Yes I am suspect of these numbers as well. When you look at the realm numbers, they are much, much lower - which I tend to believe. I have to think that the number of true "active" players (those that pay each month and log in at least once per month) has to much smaller - how small, who knows?
theuberpea Sep 29th 2009 3:20PM
Only one person plays WoW. Me.
I just play against a very intricate and complex AI.
peagle Sep 29th 2009 3:22PM
You sound like a bot to me.
Gnosh Sep 29th 2009 3:23PM
Can you convince the bots to stop complaining about PVP balance?