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by Mike Schramm 
Oct 26th 2009 at 5:00PM
So now, two months from the end of 2009, let's just say it: it's not possible. World of Warcraft is an aberration, an extremely well-made game that happened to be in just the right time and place (the casual game explosion, the adoption of MMOs and subscription model gaming, the "mainstreaming" of fantasy/sci-fi geekiness) to become an uber megahit. In short, game developers simply can't recreate WoW, at least not on purpose. As BoJ says, that doesn't mean they can't try -- there are certainly lots of original and interesting games and MMOs out there, and it's completely possible to be an MMO that isn't WoW-sized and be successful. But as for the actual question of beating WoW and its worldwide audience, game developers have pretty much moved on.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Blizzard
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 6)
RogueJedi86 Oct 26th 2009 5:05PM
I have wondered that if it had been another game and not WoW, with all of the innovations that WoW had, but without being WoW, would it have been the megahit WoW was? Did all the innovations make WoW the best, or is it part of the Warcraft name? What if Star Wars Galaxies had been exactly like WoW(and WoW had never came out), with all of WoW's innovations and gameplay but in the SW universe, would we be on SWG Insider now, talking about the SWG Killer?
Dillon Oct 26th 2009 5:12PM
I would argue, as I would for many of Blizzard's games, that they are not the best innovators, but they certainly are the best at refining and perfecting other and past innovations cohesively.
There were a ton of factors all combined to create the "perfect storm" that WoW was, and still is. Quality, pace, relative lack of grind compared to the norm in 2004, and the huge amount of hype that comes from a company as big as they were with an IP as well-known as Warcraft.
You bring up a really interesting MMO, SW:G, which also had a huge amount going for it, but was laid on the shoulders of a developer who tried to do too much, ended up with too little (initially), and released a product that was still in early beta by my measures. That initial loss of goodwill was enough for me to never try coming back again.
WoW on the other hand? I've quit (taken extended breaks) four times.
I'm interested to see what BioWare does with a great license, and a very capable group of developers.
RogueJedi86 Oct 26th 2009 6:06PM
I don't mean SWG as it is now. I just mean if it had been another game that done exactly what WoW, combined all the best previous ideas into one MMO like WoW did, except without WoW existing, would it be the #1 MMO now? I just wonder if the success of it depends entirely on it being made by Blizzard, on it being Warcraft. If another game(like my SWG example) had done it, would be we be wondering about every upcoming game being a killer of that game? Was WoW the only way lightning could've struck, or would another game that did exactly what WoW did have also struck lightning?
I am eager for TOR though, I do hope it can challenge WoW at the least.
zappo Oct 26th 2009 7:20PM
Actually I would say so. WoW instantly had a big player base because for a long time people were waiting (yes actually waiting) for ANYTHING better than EQ. I don't however thing SWG would have done as well however, just because fantasy games tend to lend themselves to people who never play this sort of thing period, whereas sci-fi generally does not.
Usually the bigger problem is that companies cannot wait. They see a cash cow, they get a game mostly there... then release it. Blizzard seems to be the first company that spent a lot of time trying to get the game as well tuned as possible. Every game that doesn't try to hold itself to this functioning standard is probably doomed from the outset.
Hansbo Oct 26th 2009 8:24PM
I don't know really. I mean, one could say that any game could have been the world of warcraft by being as good as world of warcraft and coming out at the right time but...
Blizzard has never failed. I may sound like a huge fan boy, but ever since the first Warcraft game, everything Blizzard has touched has been pure gold. It would just be silly to speculate what would have happened if someone else had released as good a game on the right time, because the fact is that no one did. And no one did because no one could, because there isn't a single game company out there with the same skills and dedication as blizzard.
People always underestimate the giants. I remember people being sceptical of WoW before its release. I remember people being sceptical about the hero system of Warcraft III. I know a lot of people say Starcraft will never be able to live up to it's predecessor. In this thread, people say that not even Blizzard could come up with the WoW killer.
And I just say: Watch them. They are, and have been since the dawn of PC gaming, the gods of game production. And as long as they keep their attitude towards game making, they will continue to be for a long time.
krizzlybear Oct 26th 2009 5:06PM
It's like a TCG company trying to overtake Magic: the Gathering. It just isn't going to happen, even if the upcoming WoW expansions are not as good as previous ones. It's already settled in, and here to stay.
Clydtsdk-Rivendare Oct 26th 2009 5:17PM
There's not a comparison here. YGO actually did overtake MTG around the time it release Phantom Darkness. Can't say if it's still there but lol.
Vogie Oct 26th 2009 5:19PM
That's true... but companies succeeded. Kind of. For instance, when I was in Middle school (was it really 12 years ago?), Magic was overshadowed by the ever-yawn-able Pokemon. Several Years later, the same thing happened with the equally-dull Yu-gi-oh. How? By Expanding the target age market and via mass-bombardment of product. However, while these products were still successful, Magic never died. Not because those other products were better, but they were pointing at the wrong target audience. The people who played such card games grew up and moved on.
A company COULD overtake WoW, by targeting the pre-15 market, and be very successful. But it wouldn't be more than a flash in the pan, because WoW has the 16-45 year olds on lockdown... because it's diverse enough to appeal to all styles of people.
kabshiel Oct 26th 2009 6:59PM
Part of the problem with that analogy is that 99% of the TCGs that were created to take on Magic were just really awful. They ran the gamut from way too complex (Middle Earth/Star Wars) to just plain weird (XXXenophile, anyone?). Of all the games that were released in the mid-90s glut, the only one that survived was Legend of the Five Rings, because it managed to be both a really good game and carve out a separate niche from Magic.
On the other hand, most of the MMOs that have been released to take on WoW have been pretty decent games that might have been very successful in a WoW-less world. At this point, there are just so many people playing WoW that any other game feels like a ghost town by comparison. And nobody wants to play a multiplayer game by themselves. Basically, WoW will remain top dog until it dies a natural death or Blizzard loses their mind and just totally destroys it. Even a game like Old Republic, which will have the benefits of being made by a well-liked developer and based on a popular property, probably can't beat it.
Kaz Oct 26th 2009 7:47PM
WoW is the game everyone plays because WoW is the game everyone plays.
mike Oct 26th 2009 5:06PM
Backhand of Justice is one of my favorite bloggers, but this looks remarkably like every fifth thread on mmo-champ or the wow forums.
Honestly the only thread more common than "X will beat WoW" is "Nothing Can Beat WoW".
retrostills Oct 26th 2009 5:08PM
While the idea of putting WoW in second place is certainly a challenging goal for any game developer, there's still a lot of great games waiting to be made. Eventually WoW will die off.
Eventually.
That being said, Aion still has amazing potential to be a top notch game.
Ganesh Oct 26th 2009 5:51PM
I'm loving Aion, but being slower/harder to level than in wow, I suspect that it's not the WoW-killer people may have expected. that being said, it's a great, beautiful and fun game, but WoW really made the casual player base (of which i could be called a member) kinda soft, so spending an hour leveling a crafting profession by a mere handful of points sounds ridiculous to the normal WoW player. NCSoft is trying to reduce the grinding in future patches, so that may help.
As for WoW's dominance, I think that with it's large player base and deep levels of play (you can do a lot in both PvE and PvP), WoW's worst enemy is WoW itself. If they screw up in future patches/expansions, that'll be what sends people to other games. It's not another game that will hurt WoW at all.
EZ Oct 26th 2009 8:26PM
I agree. I'm happy to see that NCSoft is attempting to make Aion work for its audience. The gold spam fixes (not perfect yet, but improved), and the future +exp patch are both evidence of this. It's also good to see someone bring up an mmo besides WoW and not get ripped apart for it. I wish some WoW players would understand that talking about different games is OK, and competition is good for the industry. The player I'm talking about is the guy that starts raging on you for even bringing up a different game.
Right now, basically any MMO coming out in "the time of wow" doesn't stand a chance. Even a decent game will get trashed by every wow fanatic, therefore people are afraid to buy/subscribe, and no subscribers = no money = devs can't improve game = stagnation. I'm not the type to trash wow just for being wow, but the hardcore fanbase (hardcore as in fanboy not playstyle) does a great job of stifling competition before it even comes out, which IMO, is a bad thing. This is also one thing that is really powering the engine for wow. The people are great, and the people are bad, but MMO's are all about the people.
For the record, my Aion account is canceled until they get some things worked out. I'm hoping it's in it's "pre-bc wow stage", and will have enough subscribers to make NCsoft improve it. In which case, I will renew my sub, but until then it's ok to talk about other games. Hell, even TRY another game if it looks interesting! Don;t be afraid people! Wow is going anywhere. (comment doesn't apply to everyone, obviously)
Jtree Oct 26th 2009 5:08PM
To my thinking, WoW is like Halo. Halo came out, was incredibly popular, and bested a string of supposed Halo-killers. So what killed Halo? Halo 2.
WoW will probably go down the same path. It's eventual removal from the top of the heap will come, I believe, when Blizz releases that new, original property MMO there have been faint hints at, and positions it to succeed and replace WoW.
Thundrcrackr Oct 26th 2009 5:27PM
Agreed. The only thing that will beat WoW is Blizzard's next MMO. Personally, I can't wait. I didn't start WoW till after BC came out so I've always felt "behind". I'd love a chance to start fresh at zero with everyone else.
Although, I wonder how even Blizzard can beat WoW. If even half the WoW players were like, "screw that new MMO, I have too much invested in this one to switch" Then Blizz would be stuck supporting 2 MMO's but still only making the same amount of money. Unless the new MMO is somehow able to tap an entire new audience that WoW hasn't been able to, which honestly, I don't see how that could be possible either. WoW has become about as noob friendly as possible (and i don't mean that in a bad way). Blizz would pretty much have to give people a reason to switch from WoW to the new one, and eventually stop supporting WoW for it to ever be as good as WoW. And the only reason it would be worth it for them to do that would be the thought that people will eventually get tried of WoW and quit it anyway, and by having something new for them to switch to they'll be able to maintain their large number of subscribers.
(cutaia) Oct 26th 2009 5:45PM
"If even half the WoW players were like, "screw that new MMO, I have too much invested in this one to switch" Then Blizz would be stuck supporting 2 MMO's but still only making the same amount of money."
Very interesting thoughts. You're right, I believe. By releasing a new MMO while still supporting their current one, they would almost certainly just be splitting the players and resources across two projects. They would almost be forced to stop genuinely supporting WoW in order to push more people over to the new game (i.e. to get rid of that thought that people have anything invested in WoW).
That's probably the best argument I've seen against a new Blizzard MMO coming out anytime soon...at least not as long as the current one still maintains such popularity.
Byron Oct 26th 2009 7:25PM
Yeah, the only new MMO I can see Bliz making would be World of Starcraft. Or Galaxy of Starcraft, or whatever. Using everything they've learned from WoW, but with some twists for a sci-fi space game. That would probably cannibalize some WoW players, but also draw enough new players (eg, hardcore Korean Starcraft players) to make it worth supporting two MMOs.
Also EVE Online is relatively small by WoW standards - around 300,000 total active subscriptions. Space flight sim's appeal may be limited, but it's at least unique enough, and polished enough, to include in that list with Aion and SW:tOR.
Trem Oct 26th 2009 7:46PM
I completely agree.
There was no RTS that could beat Warcraft II until.... Starcraft.
There was no RTS that could beat Starcraft until Warcraft III and thats debatable.
There was no ARPG that could beat Diablo until.... Diablo II.
And IMO nothing (and I've tried them all) can beat Diablo II until.... (hopefully) Diablo III.
Diablo II was my default game until I started WoW. I played it almost exclusively to all other games for about 6 years. I took breaks for a game here and there, an FF or Bioware game would come out and I'd drop DII for a month or two but then I'd come right back. If Blizzard would have kept making expansions I probably never would have left.
WoW is now my default game. I'll take breaks and play other games from time to time. Dragon Age and Torchlight will be my next two breaks. As soon as I get tired of themone it will be back to WoW until the next game distracts me for a month or two.
I think there are only 2 things that can kill WoW.
1. Blizzard stops making expansions.
2. Blizzard comes out with something better.
Although I believe that 2nd one will be extremely hard to do.
wdm+hall Oct 26th 2009 7:51PM
They will get people to switch by offering a penguin pet.