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by Mike Schramm 
Oct 26th 2009 at 5:00PM
So now, two months from the end of 2009, let's just say it: it's not possible. World of Warcraft is an aberration, an extremely well-made game that happened to be in just the right time and place (the casual game explosion, the adoption of MMOs and subscription model gaming, the "mainstreaming" of fantasy/sci-fi geekiness) to become an uber megahit. In short, game developers simply can't recreate WoW, at least not on purpose. As BoJ says, that doesn't mean they can't try -- there are certainly lots of original and interesting games and MMOs out there, and it's completely possible to be an MMO that isn't WoW-sized and be successful. But as for the actual question of beating WoW and its worldwide audience, game developers have pretty much moved on.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Blizzard
Reader Comments (Page 4 of 6)
Jackholla Oct 26th 2009 5:55PM
WTB "World of Diablo"...serously Blizzard plz! It's been 9 years since Diablo II, Diablo III (still in beta) will only see a few months of sales (maybe an expansion a year later), but won't be a magahit (or profitable with the time invested). Still familiar to WoW and old school Diablo players, darker content (as well with the music), that would totally suck people ($ubscribtions) in…imo.
Grimm Oct 26th 2009 6:46PM
I'm pretty sure EA/Blizzard's accountants have done the math to prove you wrong on this, or D3 wouldn't even be in development.
Evelinda Oct 27th 2009 11:10AM
So, i can still walk into any game store and buy a copy of diablo 2, both by itself and in the battlechest... How many other 9 year old games can you say that about? I'm willing to bet that diablo 3 will have a long (and profitable!) shelf life...
Jimmy Oct 26th 2009 5:55PM
Whats that sound?
The sound of hundreds flooding the comments about why X game is just as good/better.
jake Oct 26th 2009 6:01PM
not sure if this has happened to people but, i took a break from WoW. A friend of mine who I would have never thought would play wow, approaches me and tells me if i still play wow and how is the game?
I always tell them to NOT play it, since it is such a time sink. A couple months pass and I get word that the friend i told NOT to play wow, is playing wow. I speak to this friend and he's a hardcore raider, who's guild just did OS+3 drakes (this is way way before Ulduar coming out). He has a full top tier set, and three level 80 characters.
This scenario has happened to me multiple times with different friends.
Point is the hype is at such a point where, people who would not normally play games are playing games, specifically WoW. One friend told me he played WoW because he had seen it from so many places, both on line and from TV.
Utakata Oct 26th 2009 6:03PM
I think MMO companies should stop worrying about it. And instead focus on their game making it good without comparing themselves to WoW. (tl,dr)
I should say this...because their is downside to WoW's success. That is it gets pretty boring after awhile being the only big kid on the block. So there's a hunger for players looking for something different. That being said, there shouldn't be one game that does everything that WoW does. Instead, create a game that's it own niche. For example, a game that caters ot Star Wars fans or has a feel of comic books, cyberpunk sci-fi or anime. Make it really good in terms of polish and mechanics...and put it out there. And if it catches that market well enough, it may draw others to it who are looking for something different.
Too many games today are hyping themselves to extremes instead. Hoping they will catch the audience who may or maynot be into their game. Oft the companies compare themselves to being the next WoW. But instead leave many players dissappointed it's not WoW, or even the next WoW...and it's quality and mechanics is something to be desired. Or simply it ends up being not the game most players are looking for. And they flock in masses after a month...leaving the game to wrath of it's investors. I can name a few games that have made that mistake: Age of Conan, Warhammer, Champions Online and Aion. Many of these game should of been marketed as niche games...but instead marketed as the "Led Zeppelin" to WoW. And it doesn't work, because the discerning player sees through that and runs screaming away.
And I also say this because my prediction has been that no single MMO may topple WoW. But instead a bunch of niche games that whittle at WoW's player base...eventually WoW may fall. But those game needs to be good and not hyped to something it's not from the beginning.
Trent Oct 26th 2009 6:14PM
Most developers just can't hope to play the balancing act between the casuals and the hardcore as well as Blizzard does with WoW. The primary problem most MMOs have faced is that the hardcore community is so insular, that they will ostracize new players and chase them away from the more rewarding aspects of the game. No developers have been willing to actually stand up to their base gamers with the exception of Blizzard. Blizzard continues to provide those players with content, but have shown no hesitation to take away from them to make the experience more rewarding for casuals. It has gotten to the point where it is almost impossible to tell the difference between players who play 10 hours a week or 50. Hardcore gamers may not like that, but it is what has kept WoW on top for so long.
jbodar Oct 26th 2009 7:19PM
I agree. In a way, it's one of the reasons these other games lure players away from WOW: they'll give these hardcore players the challenges, grinds, and perks they want (at the expense of the casuals). Then the casuals realize it's just not the game they thought it was, or that they can't hope to compete with the hardcore "arms race", and they quit, so the bottom drops out of the subscription base.
ihategnomes Oct 26th 2009 6:18PM
Nothing will ever kill WoW but time. Even when WoW goes away, nothing will ever reach these numbers, probably not even Blizzard's next MMO. While it has been a fantastic success, in a way it's bad for the MMO genre. I started WoW just after release, and it's coming up on its 5 year anniversary. How many longtime WoW players are going to just migrate to another MMO after WoW dies? It has burned through the mass of people that were potential MMO players and became an addiction for many of them, including myself. When the true successor with all the potential of WoW is released, who is going to look back on their years of WoW and say, "Yeah I think I want to go through all that again"?
Valt Oct 26th 2009 6:19PM
I think we all know this but NOTHING can beat WoW. Some new mmos dont even try to claim to do so.
Even blizzard themselves dont think their next MMO will beat WoW. Its THAT big.
rhorle Oct 26th 2009 6:23PM
Its not that WoW is a "perfect" game, it is they have had five years to tweak everything. They had the benifit of having no one else to compete against when they started. Where as everything else now is compared to wow. Many of these games are exactly like wow was at launch, with their flaws and lack of stuff.Yet they aren't given time to grow like wow was given by critics and players.
WoW is only the best by virtue of its age. If wow was released today it wouldn't be getting such praise. We have to remember to give other mmo's such room to grow instead of discounting them after a few months of play when they first come out. WoW is easily re-creatable, but few remember how wow was when it first came out and instead only see what it took 5 years to make it into.
Blastenheim Oct 26th 2009 6:42PM
Actually, WoW did have a big competitor back when it started: Everquest. It was the monster back then, a game with numbers no one thought could be topled. Then WoW came in and, thanks to a mixture of timming, good ideas, luck and proper excecution (because WoW was and still is a very good game in basically every aspect, even if many of us are a bit tired after it being part of our routines for almost half a decade now), did it.
Also I remember Lineage II being very strong in the Asian market around those days, as well as Ragnarok. WoW didn't just pop into an empty lot. It just was less crowded than today's.
Mopo Oct 26th 2009 7:16PM
There were several MMOs prior to WoW going live and some were successful. What it comes down to is people will still play WoW for years to come, but the loyalties stop there. WoW will eventually die or dwindle away for the newbiggerbetter MMO from Blizzard or not. History will repeat itself like everything else, it is just that people have short term memories.
Here is my recollection on MMOs that came out and died or still going, but dying. There are a bunch of Asian MMO, which I did not list (besides Lineage) and I did not list the newest ones.
UO, EQ, AC, DAoC, AC2, EQ2, L1, L2, CoH, E&B, AO, EVE, FE, FFXI, SWG, Warhammer, Conan, Matrix and a few others.
I tried D&D online and found it to be very clunky and hardly worth my time. I did not include Guild Wars because it can be argued that it is not a true MMO. I think it is, but whatever.
mediumsizedrob Oct 26th 2009 6:32PM
It would be nice to see a game come out that does the obvious-- capitalize on Wow's successes and correct WoW's biggest issues. This is exactly what Blizz did when WoW came out- emulated the good things about EQ and fixed all the stuff people complained about. Why another dev team hasn't attempted this is beyond me. WAR now is going through all the BS with certain specs being useless and gear sets only working with one spec. Rather than learning from WoW they're now making all the same mistakes, and their sub numbers reflect that.
Until a game is created that does this kind of thing, we can't really say for sure if WoW is undefeatable. It would take a long time considering how entrenched WoW is and how many people's lives are dedicated to the game at this point, but it would be interesting to see.
Grimm Oct 26th 2009 6:46PM
Other developers *have* attempted this. It's not easy to hit all of WoW's high notes and solve all the problems it's still got after five years when you're also trying to launch an MMO with a fraction of WoW's annual budget and dev staff.
It's reasonable to expect a new MMO to be as good as WoW was at launch, but rather less so to expect it to be as good as WoW is *now*.
Kaz Oct 26th 2009 6:56PM
Beating WoW in the MMORPG genre is damn difficult. Here's why:
1) The quality of the game: Say what you want about WoW, but since the start it was VERY well designed. The different classes and races with a substantially different play style and lore in many ways turned one game into several games. The different zones all have there own unique style and feel. The quests and associated quest text keeps us killing those boars. The constant sense of progression and impetus for exploration continues to dive people to pay ~$15/mo.
2) Mainstream acceptance: WoW has gotten itself into the mainstream. It is easy to get into, fun to play, and the solo game is tight. No long mandatory grinds, just do a few quests to make some NPCs happy and its gold and green loots. This expands the community base beyond the "Parent's Basment" crowd.
3) Well Fostered Community: With WoW being seen as acceptable (and somewhat trendy) people are comfortable talking about it out of game and getting there less hardcore friends to play. More people = a larger community that people want to belong to. Blizzard has upped the ante by having is devs on the forums responding to players questions and concerns. While GC, Tigole, et al. must deal with the whiny, Pony demanding, horse shit of some the intimacy generated between Blizzard and its customers is an invaluable part of WoW and securing the holy grail of businesses: Brand Loyalty.
4) Player Investment: A lot of people play WoW, many have done so for a long time. There is a substantial investment of time with the game. Loot, achievements, wipes, wins make up valuable memories with friends that people aren't just willing to give up on. Most people only have the time and/or money to invest in 1 MMO at a time (especially if they raid) and changing games would be like moving across the country.
5) Time: WoW didn't start out on top, it had its quarks and foibles, but with time it improved and balanced. Bugs were squashed and features added. It grew and matured into what we know today. This also had the effect of raising expectations of gamers. Many new MMOs are going to start out as flawed as WoW did, but the player base may be far less tolerant than they were. When a substantial number of people right off an MMO early then the developers won't be able to generate the kind of revenue necessary for the game to grow. Its an unfortunate circular dilemma: Need time and experience to make the game better, for time and experience you need funds, for funds you need players, for players you need WoW like quality, for WoW like quality you need time and experience.
I'm not going to say its impossible to beat WoW, but what its going to take is a really well made game that is NOT a WoW clone. Its going to need its own unique style and draw that will cause people to keep their subscriptions active and evangelize to their friends and family. If its seen as a WoW with a pallet swap then people are going to loose interest in it, and they're going to go back to WoW.
To quote Ghostcrawler, "If you're just burned out, it's also not the worst thing in the world to try out some other games -- the past couple of years has been great for them. "
He can say that, because he knows you'll be back.
Byron Oct 26th 2009 7:33PM
Good points. WoW is basically benefiting from the law of increasing returns now, similar to Windows, VHS, and any other established product where scale begets more scale.
Mopo Oct 26th 2009 7:40PM
"3) Well Fostered Community: With WoW being seen as acceptable (and somewhat trendy)"
Sorry, just because a few stars and sports figure play hardly makes it acceptable and somewhat trendy. Most people still view WoW players as the basement dwellers and I do not see that going away any time soon. I challenge you to go to a bar/club and talk about WoW to pickup girls/guys or talk to your buddies on how your raid went last night. The results will not be good.
Although, a lot more people play MMOs these days, it is just a drop in the bucket. 12 million accounts versus 6.5+ billion people puts things in perspective.
"4) Player Investment: A lot of people play WoW, many have done so for a long time. There is a substantial investment of time with the game."
I had a good amount of time in EQ, but I gave it up fairly quick when WoW came out, so peoples loyalties will shift with a blink of an eye if something better comes out. I had a couple of friends go to Aion recently and they had a lot of time invested in WoW. I am considering doing the same thing (maybe, but I am still waiting to try the damn thing without paying first).
What is going to kill WoW is time not other MMOs. You can only do so much with an old engine and there are a lot better looking MMOs out there; however, WoW has a very good plastic surgeon, but the age is starting to show.
Kaz Oct 26th 2009 8:16PM
"I challenge you to go to a bar/club and talk about WoW to pickup girls/guys or talk to your buddies on how your raid went last night. The results will not be good."
Ok, that was humiliating.... j/k
When I said Mainstream I was talking about the greater ubiquity of the game. Where once people were embarrassed to admit the played a given MMO at all, with WoW its something they can mention without feeling ostracized. This has been happening with video-games in general for the past couple of decades, but MMOs have been seen as the refuge for the uber-hardcore basement dwellers without social graces. Although I would never use the size of my mana bar to pick up chicks (unless they were nerd chicks...).
"peoples loyalties will shift with a blink of an eye if something better comes out."
Indeed, but it has to be substantially better for the person. That point is different for different people. Sure, you'd probably pick up and move 3000 miles away with the right incentives (i.e high paying job, fresh start, to be with/get away from person/people X), but the benefits of doing so will have to out weigh the cost (getting a place to stay, getting a job, leaving people behind, learning new roads, laws, lingo, etc.)
People that play WoW very casually may not have a problem leaving for something else because they don't have much invested. People that leave as a group may leave easily because their fun is invested with each other more than the game. And the uber-hardcore world-firsters may leave because they just need a change of scenery.
I find most people are somewhere in the middle, they enjoy their achievements and playing the game, but they do so at a pace where they don't get burned out with the content. Everything still remains fresh and fun, and they just aren't motivated to spend the $$$ on a game that their not sure of. I've know a few people that went to Warhammer, LotR:OL, Age of Conan, and Aion, but after awhile came back to WoW. Sure some will find more fun in the other games, that's natural, but with the way WoW is designed it allows people to take those kind of breaks and come back without penalty.
"(maybe, but I am still waiting to try the damn thing without paying first)"
This. Many people aren't moving because they don't want to pay for a maybe. The smartest thing Blizzard did was the free 14 day trial. Enough to give you a feel for the game without imposing a cost.
"What is going to kill WoW is time not other MMOs. You can only do so much with an old engine and there are a lot better looking MMOs out there; however, WoW has a very good plastic surgeon, but the age is starting to show."
Agreed, but maybe that's probably why Blizzard is working on a new MMO. Although you never know when they'll though a core engine update in one of the expansions.
They're doing some dramatic changes for Cataclysm and it might even include an updated game engine. They've already done graphic updates with Wrath, upgrading most other aspects probably wouldn't be much more of a stretch.
However, they probably won't do that until they find something that the current one they're using just can't do (or can't do very well) and can't be spot-coded around.
onetrueping Oct 27th 2009 6:26AM
@mopo
When you can go to a blue-collar working location, particularly a low-income one like a small-business warehouse, and freely talk about the latest buffs and nerfs, the merits of PvP and raiding, and the like, then you can say that WoW is mainstream and trendy. All kinds of people play the game. Your own lack of success might be your own fault due to delivery or some other personal foible.