Encrypted Text: Armor penetration and the crit cap demystified

Every Wednesday, Chase Christian of Encrypted Text invites you to enter the world of shadows, as we explore the secrets and mechanics of the rogue class. This week, we talk about the armor penetration and crit caps, and what they mean for rogues.
The topic of Armor Penetration and how it plays into a rogue's gearing plan is definitely the topic I've received the most requests to cover. It's been well-researched by the great folks at Elitist Jerks, and even though it will be completely gone in Cataclysm, there's still a lot of interest in how it works. The terms 'hard cap', 'soft cap', and 'arp cap' are thrown around a lot and can be confusing if you've never done a deep-dive into the mechanic.
I also received a question regarding the rogue crit cap on the WoW.com podcast the other weekend, and decided to include it in this investigation. While a few high end rogues are already brushing up against it, many rogues are wondering how the crit cap will affect them come Icecrown's plethora of high ilvl loot. Like any of the other caps, the crit cap needs to be seriously evaluated when trying to choose upgrades. Read on for details of both mechanics.
Armor Penetration:
Let me start by laying out all of the jargon ahead of time. There's two key terms to consider when we're talking about Armor Penetration (or ArP/ArPen, in short form): the Soft Cap (SC) and the Hard Cap (HC). The Soft Cap refers to the idea that you are capable of capping your ArP (the cap is 1,400 currently) when you have some sort of Armor Penetration trinket active, but you're under this cap when the trinkets aren't active. There's two such trinkets in-game: Grim Toll and Mjolnir Runestone. You've probably seen a lot of demand/jealousy over these trinkets, as they are often BIS for many Combat builds.
Grim Toll provides a rogue with 612 ArP while active, and Mjolnir Runestone provides 665 ArP. Because we're trying to reach the Armor Penetration Cap (1,400), this means we'll need either 788 ArP on gear to reach Grim Toll's Soft Cap or 735 ArP on gear if using the Mjolnir Runestone Soft Cap. Otherwise, when the trinket procs, all of the ArP over the cap will be wasted. This is obviously not what you want to do (wasting a portion of a trinket's proc), so you must ensure you are as close to the Soft Cap as possible without exceeding it. A great way to figure out how close you are to the ArP Soft Cap is to look at your passive ArP on your gear. If it's around 400-500, and you're not using any ArP gems, then you could simply swap all of your gems to ArP and reach the Soft Cap without any gear swaps. You can typically gem for between 250 and 400 ArP, depending on the number of sockets in your gear, using Fractured Cardinal Rubies.
Let's say that you weren't fortunate enough to have scored a Grim Toll/Mjolnir Runestone by now, and so you're sitting on alternate trinkets. This is where the Armor Penetration Hard Cap comes into play. The Hard Cap is set at 1,400, which is where your ArP is permanently capped, regardless of if you have a trinket active or not. Using some of the best gear in the game, gemming pure Armor Penetration gems, and focusing solely on ArP, it is still impossible (according to my math) for a rogue to reach the ArP Hard Cap. If you were to spec maces, it would be possible via the bonus from Mace Specialization, but there are no end-game off hand maces and few MH maces worth it.
The real concern is that when Icecrown is released and the item level of gear reaches its highest point, a rogue will be able to hard cap Armor Penetration passively. This results in a significant DPS increase, and will be the gearing objective of the most high end Combat raiders. A well-designed PvE gearset includes between 18-22 sockets, which allow a rogue to gem somewhere around 400 ArP if using all ArP gems. A rogue's "hard cap" set would then have to include 1,000 passive ArP rating: something that I simply can't find on gear currently. My best attempt yielded a fairly high-end set with 899 passive ArP. ICC's release should push this into the realm of possibility.
In short, unless you have a Grim Toll or Mjolnir Runestone, neither of the ArP caps are of any importance to you. If you are lucky enough to be graced with one of these, simply ensure that your ArP is near but not over the Soft Cap for your particular trinket. It's important to note that Sunder/Expose Armor, Faerie Fire, and other ArP debuffs do not affect the ArP Soft/Hard Caps. The ArP caps we talk about are all personal, and they're the same regardless of what buffs or debuffs an opponent may have. Do note that these formulas are based around the idea of fighting a level 83 boss.
Crit Cap:
The Crit Cap is another one of those jargon terms that you'll hear from time to time without really seeing it explained in detail. Most rogues are talking specifically about the 'White Hit Critical Strike Chance Cap', or WCC for short, which is the point where additional critical strike rating no longer increases your chance to score white swing crits. The reason that this cap exists is the Glancing Blow mechanic, which is implemented to lower melee damage against boss-level mobs. Due to Glancing Blows, a rogue can literally get to the point where they are unable to crit any more often.
Let's first note that neither yellow attacks (special moves) nor poison damage are afflicted by the white crit cap, as they are unable to be glancing blows. They each have their own crit cap, but it's significantly higher and currently unreachable. The crit cap that rogues are currently able to reach only affects white swings. However, white swings make up a huge portion of our a damage, especially as Combat via Prey on the Weak. Let's talk about how this cap is calculated and reached.
Blizzard bases all attacks on a "roll" that takes place when you swing. This roll can be thought of as a /roll 100. Blizzard chooses a random number between 1-100, and the result determines what happens with that attack. If you roll a 1-5, Blizzard converts the attack into a hit. This is due to an undetermined mechanic known as "crit suppression" that most bosses seem to have. It's actually set to 4.8% (as researched by Vulajin), but can be rounded to 5% for this simple example. It just means that 5% of the time, you simply won't crit.
Now we factor in glancing blows, and if you roll a 6-29, you will have a glancing blow. This means that your attack hits for half damage and is unable to crit. That's a total of 29 possible chances for you to "not crit". In addition, we have to factor in a mob's chance to evade your attacks. If you're Expertise capped and Hit capped (white hit capped, or usually 722 hit rating with Precision / Misery), a mob has no chance to avoid you, and so if you roll 30-100, you have a chance of critting the mob. This results in the crit cap for a rogue with capped hit and expertise being 71%, as you are guaranteed to "not" crit 29% of the time.
The complete formula (thanks to Russ for a correction!) is:
A great WCC calculator is available at Filltheglass.org. If you're under the White Hit Cap (WHC) and the Expertise Cap (EC) (you can read up on both here), then this number is even lower, as some of the 1-100 roll will be taken up with misses and dodges. Let's say you're missing 5% hit and 2% dodge from your Hit and Expertise, and so now your crit cap is 64% crit. The question becomes: can you reach the crit cap in any real situation? The answer is 'yes, if you're geared, or very undergeared'.Start with 100%
Add a boss' crit suppression of 4.8%
Subtract a boss' dodge and parry, affected by expertise and positioning, usually near 0-2%
Subtract your glancing blow chance of 24%
Subtract your miss, affected by hit, usually between 0-10%
----------
= Your White Crit Cap.
Take Dark Matter, for example; it provides 13.33% chance to crit when active. Considering that 40% crit is not uncommon to see for a Combat rogue while unbuffed, and that there are several critical strike buffs and debuffs (5% from Leader of the Pack/Rampage, 3% from Master Poisoner/Heart of the Crusader), and Dark Matter's amazing proc, you can easily reach 60%+ critical strike chance in a raiding environment. Blessing of Kings, Horn of Winter, and Mark of the Wild also add to this critical strike chance value. If you're gemming Agility, this number can get even crazier. However, without the 13% from Dark Matter, it's still pretty rough getting to the crit cap by yourself.
Similar to ArP, there are two White Crit Caps: Soft and Hard. Soft would imply you have a trinket that grants you a significant amount of critical strike rating or Agility (such as the very popular Darkmoon Card: Greatness), and that you can reach the WCC when this trinket is active. The Hard Cap would imply that you are at your personal WCC even without your trinkets active. The WCC is obviously easier to reach if you have very low hit and expertise. If you're getting close to wasting itemization points on agility/crit due to being at your WCC, you can socket Hit/Expertise to raise your cap and buy you some breathing room. This is one of the reasons that spreadsheets making gearing decisions far easier: it's almost impossible to do all of this math in your head.
Conclusion:
If you're getting close to your WCC, explore using Expertise or Hit to raise the cap, as this should yield a net DPS boost from the saved critical strike rating. With a low expertise/hit set in ICC, it may be possible to reach the White Hard Crit Cap, so be sure to evaluate your own crit cap before picking up a shiny new trinket or regemming. If you've got a GT/MR, be mindful of the ArP Soft Cap (as you are for hit/expertise). If you don't have a GT/MR or a Dark Matter, then none of this will really apply to you unless you are loaded with ICC gear with a very particular itemization pattern and gemming strategy. For a quick reference chart of any cap-related values, check out Cally's great post at Elitist Jerks.
Filed under: Rogue, Guides, (Rogue) Encrypted Text






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
t0xic Nov 11th 2009 6:08PM
My head hurts. Anyone got an Aspirin?
(cutaia) Nov 11th 2009 6:14PM
I'm sure a spambot will be around any time now to offer you some cheap pain medication.
AAron Nov 11th 2009 6:18PM
A rogues head always hurts. It explains why we wear leather into melee combat.
Grim Dec 14th 2009 12:24PM
this explains why we have very little intelligence :^D
Shade Nov 11th 2009 6:14PM
Mine too. But this post was way informative.
Is there any current end-game gear that has good expertise on it? My expertise is sitting at 17 (147 rating), and while I'm using a few expertise gems already, I'd rather not have to pile on more of them. Mutilate spec.
Kellerune Nov 11th 2009 6:49PM
There was some trinket with an awkwardly large amount of expertise on it that dropped in 10 man ToC(non heroic).
http://www.wowwiki.com/Victor%27s_Call
That should pretty much cover any expertise you may need ever.
Shade Nov 11th 2009 6:54PM
That would work - maybe. I'll look into it. Thank you!
Debricashi Nov 11th 2009 6:22PM
Maces do not change your ArP cap. ArP from multiple sources MULTIPLY instead of ADDING. This is why Sunder/Expose Armor and Faerie Fire do not change the ArP cap.
Each point of ArP is simply worth less armor reduction if you have maces, sunder, and FF up on your target. (Note: For ArP values under cap, having these debuffs is still better than not having them because you are removing the armor from a lower base value.)
Desmentia Nov 11th 2009 7:18PM
No, Mace Spec is calculated as though it granted you a fixed amount of ArP rating. That and Battle Stance are the only two ArP buffs that do it that way.
Debricashi Nov 12th 2009 1:09PM
Thanks for the info. My bad. After doing some additional research, it appears that you only multiply together the Debuffs, and you treat your personal armor pen as a single additional debuff. The percent on that debuff is determined additively from all your personal buffs, rather than multiplicatively.
Obviously, since haste multiplies, and crit adds, ArPen would have to be somewhere in the middle so nothing is freaking consistent.
Gulliver Nov 11th 2009 6:24PM
Thank you for the explaination. I must say that this article is probably the best example of why gear itemization is getting re-vamped.
I have been leveling a Shaman alt and going from Vanilla WoW where I was just looking for AG, INT or AP (Basic Stats) To Outland where I started throwing down some hit and then finally to Northrend where I am juggling Haste, ARP, HIT, EXP, Spell Pen and probably others that I don't remember. All the itemization needs to roll a D6 and add it to their charisma. (Sorry, D&D reference)
Como Nov 12th 2009 9:24AM
Not to get off topic, but you don't need to know any of this to get through normal modes. It actually upsets me that they are dumbing down stats because if all you do as a rogue is stack agi now you will be about 100-200 dps off someone who knows about ArP(and mut, it's much less). Why can't we have the complicated mechanics that allow us to be a bit better with some research....for me it's part of the game.
Dave Nov 11th 2009 6:29PM
but there are no truly end-game maces to use anyway.
Errr, The Grinder? Remorseless?
Chase Christian Nov 11th 2009 6:30PM
No quick* end game maces, sorry! Without an OH, mace spec doesn't make sense.
Richard Nov 11th 2009 7:33PM
I've always been impressed with Chase and how much better he's been than the other terrible, terrible, TERRIBLE Rogue columnists on this site.
Until I read:
"but there are no truly end-game maces to use anyway."
Chase: it doesn't matter if there are no great OH maces to use. You seem to read EJ a lot, but you've missed that the top combat DPS spec right now is Remorseless MH and H-Steel Bladebreaker OH using 5/5 Mace Spec and 1/5 CQC.
Just like how Calamity's Grasp/Webbed Death was best for Combat Rogues in Naxx, that combo is best now once you have the gear/ArPen for it.
Please, Chase, in the future, if you're going to make recommendations to Rogues, at least read the relevant threads on EJ! It's literally one of the FAQ questions.
Como Nov 12th 2009 9:21AM
Wonderful to see the people who point out mistakes in the article get downgraded at usual. A mace/dagger spec, however wrong it may sound is the best dps spec in the game right now. Granted it doesn't apply to most of you but if you are lucky enough to get to this point it would be nice to know it wouldn't it....stop downgrading just because you think people don't know what their talking about.
talkingmike Nov 11th 2009 6:28PM
Since the ArPen correlation is based on an exponential curve (as opposed to a linear curve from attack power or even a logarithmic curve from crit), what's the best way to identify that "inflection point" to switch your gems from agility/attack power over to armor penetration?
Como Nov 12th 2009 9:28AM
There is no way to know without a spread sheet which can be found on elitiestjerks. In reality if you don't want to look up the spreadsheet though, it won't affect your dps too bad. There is an argument to gem for agi instead as it brings other survivability benefits while being pretty close to dps.
Chase Christian Nov 11th 2009 6:32PM
That is what a spreadsheet is for. :)
Typically you want to get to the Soft Cap immediately if using an ArP proc trinket, but if you're just a regular guy, the spreadsheet will guide you the best.
bushkanaka86 Nov 12th 2009 10:34AM
Can anyone explain to me where to find these spreadsheets? I have a terrible time finding anything on elitistjerks. I am leveling a warrior right now and I was trying to find some theory crafting on warriors and I had a terrible time at it. Besides that, the stuff I did find was pre-3.2, so it was out of date.
Where do I find these spreadsheets?