Time Is Money: Overcutting in times of scarcity

Welcome to Time Is Money! This is the column where Basil "Euripides" Berntsen is occasionally allowed to post stuff that's too short for Gold Capped, but too long for Twitter! Also, don't forget to drop by the Call To Auction in game event next Sunday!
As a bit of a follow up from my recent post about deep undercutting, I'd like to take this opportunity to explore the other side of the equation. When there's more supply than demand, deep undercutting is more money for you, but less for your competitors. What about when there's a lot of demand, but little supply, though? Obviously, this is when you should raise your prices.
Overcutting is a term coined by Tim in the comments of that last post. Thanks Tim; I'd been looking for a word for this. When you have something for sale and it is literally flying off the shelves, there's no reason to undercut. At least, not the lowest price on the auction house. When there is lots of demand, you can take the opportunity to maximize your profit margins!
Instead of matching the lowest price on the AH, start paying attention to the volume of product posted. If you have 100 Greater Cosmic Essences and it's Tuesday night after a patch, look through your competitors' auctions, and find the first one who has posted in volume. That's your undercut target -- not the guy who posted a pair at 19g each, but the guy who posted 50 of them at 30g each. The heavier the demand, the farther down the list you should look.
If there is no deposit cost, feel free to err on the side of being too expensive, and see how many sell. Returned or canceled auctions won't cost you anything. If, however, there is a hefty deposit, err on the side of lower prices. Ignoring a huge patch of competition to gain 1g per item is a loss if half of it comes back unsold with 2g taken off for listing fees.
Another valuable tactic: if your stock is limited and the demand is even stronger than you expected, your first reflex should be to try and create more goods if you have more crafting to do. If you're all out of mats and don't have time, however, you can always consider buying your competition's auctions. This is risky, and will cost you money if the demand goes away before you can sell everything, but if you're successful, it can add margin for little work. You are adding to a level of demand that's already higher than current supplies can accommodate.
This last tactic is often called "trying to control the market". It's a bad term, however, because you're not controlling anything. All you can control is how much demand you generate, and the price and quantity for the auctions you list. Don't fall into the trap of buying literally everything below your "threshold", as this will likely result in your holding inventory and paying your competitors way more than usual for stuff you're normally selling against them.
I prefer to call this technique "demand juking". There are two ways I'll do this:
- If there are a few small auctions priced below what all your large quantities of auctions are at, then buy out the small ones and relist them with your regular stock. This is low risk, assuming you're dealing in large numbers.
- If you are currently the lowest price and see your auctions selling so quickly that you suspect you'll run out, cancel all your auctions, buy up the next cheapest lot, and relist everything slightly over that. This is high risk, as you never know when a competitor with a ton of stock in his guild bank will log in and undercut you, however if the demand really is strong enough, you'll not only sell your own goods, but make a profit on your competitors' goods too.
Filed under: Economy, Time Is Money






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
MeanGreen Mar 22nd 2010 7:06PM
Couldn't agree more here. My server often is very short on Mithril Bars. I can usually buy a stack of mithril ore for 30g and Sell the bars for 60g, no matter what the others have theirs posted at.
Basil Berntsen Mar 22nd 2010 7:16PM
I also demand juke the old world mats for stuff I craft for twinks/levelers. Much less rick there- if I end up buying stuff that becomes available cheaper, I can always use it myself and cushion that loss with the profit margins of the end product.
Justin Mar 22nd 2010 7:09PM
Heh... controlling the market..... I did it once with Mechanical Squirrel boxes, just to see how high I could drive the price. I got it to over 900g before I quit being a pain. Then I put a stock of 200 on the AH for a copper apiece to try and good-karma my way back.
Sehvekah Mar 22nd 2010 9:34PM
Over 900!?! That's just insane. And to think I felt like a dick selling some of mine for 25g...
uncaringbear Mar 23rd 2010 1:18AM
What?! 900?!!
kooda Mar 23rd 2010 3:54AM
ITSSS OVVVERRRR 9000!!!! [divided by 10]
Justin Mar 23rd 2010 5:45AM
It was really just a matter of knowing what to do, and not having anything else to do BUT sit there, buy out anyone who posted for less, and re-list at my price. By gradually driving the price up two or three gold at a time, it was actually almost a week before someone noticed.
Snuzzle Mar 23rd 2010 7:14AM
o_O did they actually sell regularly for that amount?
And people say engineers can't make money....
Justin Mar 23rd 2010 7:44AM
I wouldn't have kept it up if they didn't. Sure, I sold less of them, but my net profit was still almost ten times as much as if I had continued selling them at 13g (the starting price).
Eturyu Mar 22nd 2010 7:20PM
Just yesterday, i noticed the terrible sell price of saronite bars on the AH (selling for 25g per stack, thats less than a vendor price) and although i normaly farm sholozar it seemed not worth my time. so i had a suspicion that no one was farming Knothide leather (TBC endgame leather), checked it out and there were only 3 stacks of 20 available for about 30 gold each.. i went and farmed another 4 stacks of knothide, bought those three out that were on AH, and put them all on again at 75g per stack.....sold like hotcakes. With saronite having a 7g50s deposit, and knothide leather stacks having a 45s deposit i made a crapload of dosh with nexto no time or capitol invested. I would strongly recomend finding a lower grade item that nobody farms anymore and overcutting to the MAX.
Minidrake Mar 22nd 2010 8:32PM
When you see something selling on the AH for less than the vendor price, you have a deep, abiding, MORAL obligation to buy it and vendor it.
Banic Rhys Mar 22nd 2010 7:45PM
Overcutting? Tim must be one of the greatest minds of this century to have thought up a word such as overcutting!
*sarcasmgasm*
vinniedcleaner Mar 22nd 2010 9:33PM
I prefer the term 'price gouging'... :-)
Tim Mar 22nd 2010 11:18PM
BE NICE TO ME!
Also, humans enjoy simple terms that are similar to other terms. It's boring, but it's science.
@vinniedcleaner. Price gauging is different. This is where you are posting an item for a couple gold or so than competitors.
Banic Rhys Mar 23rd 2010 2:45AM
I got nothing against the word, it's the way Basil implied that it was a unique term that nobody had ever thought of.
But anyway Basil, you should use "sarcasmgasm" in your next post because it's just as intuitive as "overcutting", if not more. Hahahaha! Boom boom!
travist120 Mar 22nd 2010 7:51PM
I actually do this with Rugged Leather. From my personal experience, I have consistently sold Rugged Leather at 25g per stack. However, some nights, the AH is filled with undercutters and the like; so what do I do? I post my Rugged Leather at 25g a stack, then buy out all the ones that are being sold at 12g and up to 20g and re-list at my price.
ddt Mar 22nd 2010 8:26PM
things cannot literally fly off shelves unless you are selling live birds and stocking them on shelves
Cassie Mar 23rd 2010 12:08AM
Clearly you have not experienced an earthquake. I assure you, non-bird objects can fly off shelves. And hit you.
Aricharthau Mar 22nd 2010 8:49PM
If you see something on the AH for less than the vendor price BUY ALL OF IT! You will make a profit selling to the vendor. If people behave this way, eventually the price should rise above the vendor price.
G-stan Mar 22nd 2010 8:41PM
My preferred expression for 'over-cutting' is 'price gouging'