Gold Capped: Where have all the farmers gone?

This post is best read while imagining me singing the title to the tune of "Where have all the cowboys gone" by Paula Cole. There -- good luck getting that out of your head!
Auctioneers rely on farmers for raw materials for various businesses. In fact, we rely very heavily on them, and there are quite a few markets that are only more profitable than farming in terms of gold per hour if we can do them on a very large scale ... much more than any one person can farm.
I've been flying circles around Sholazar Basin and boy, are my arms tired!
The interesting thing about the markets we work on is that it's almost no more actual work to make, for example, 150 Titansteel Bars than it is to make 20. The only difference is in how annoying it is to find mats, and the number of Dr. Who episodes you get to watch while AFK crafting. The difficulty of finding lots of cheap mats is really the only barrier we worry about. And any experienced auctioneer will tell you that, historically in Wrath of the Lich King, it's been no trouble at all.
For some reason, the majority of mornings I'd log in to do my buying, I'd see absolutely dumbfounding amounts of raw mats available for ridiculous prices. Cobalt Ore for under 20g a stack, Saronite Ore for as low as 7g a stack, Adder's Tongue for under 5g a stack and Eternal Shadow for as low as 15g a stack. I have access to unlimited storage and basically unlimited money, so I did what any opportunist with a basement full of toilet paper would do: I bought every last scrap every single time, reasoning that I'd eventually find time to use it.
Boy, am I glad I did!
These days, all these mats are more expensive -- and more importantly, not available in the same volume. Where I used to see 300 stacks of saronite at the same price from four characters, I now see maybe 20 or 30 stacks at a range of prices, with very few large batches. I can only speculate that the people I used to buy from are not farming any more. For one reason or another, most times when I tried to contact these volume producers to arrange a direct purchasing deal, I never heard back. Once in a while, I'd get one of the smaller farmers to start sending me their goods C.O.D., but never one of these enormous suppliers.
I also would periodically see mats advertised in trade for even lower than what was on the AH. I once bought 300 stacks of Lichbloom for a third the regular AH price, and the seller had to log into multiple level one characters, all in the same guild, to trade them to me, six stacks at a time. It was a long evening.
So who farms that much, anyway?
I'm going to hazard a guess that it's not your average players. If they were using some sort of illicit means to farm that amount, they seem to have lost their ability to do it. On my realm for sure, as well as the realms of some of the gold bloggers I hang out with in IRC, the days of massive cheap supplies are gone. So until they come back, what can we do to profit?
If you have stock saved up from plentiful times, revalue it in your head now. Your true cost of using the mats you have in your bank is what you've given up by not selling them, not what you paid for them. Don't pat yourself on the back if you are selling titansteel based on a saronite cost of 9g per ore stack when it's over 15g now. Of course, you're probably the only one of your competitors to think this way. So how do you react when someone keeps undercutting you as if they bought their mats for the old price?
- Sell your mats! Ideally to a competitor for the new inflated price.
- Buy your competitors' stock when they list it below cost.
Remember that it's just a matter of time until the only demand for Northrend goods will be from people leveling crafting skills. Any finished goods you hold when the new expansion drops is pretty much lost money. Also, demand will dwindle as we get closer to that date and people stop raiding and PvPing.
Filed under: Wrath of the Lich King, Cataclysm, Gold Capped






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Pyromelter Jul 7th 2010 3:08PM
Basil, I think I heard about a mass-banning recently. Blizz (and a lot of companies do this from what I understand) takes their banhammer out once every few months and bans thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) of botter accounts. My guess is that's what has filtered down recently.
Nihilas Jul 7th 2010 3:29PM
A new Version of Warden was released with 3.3.5 Most hacks no longer work.
Pyromelter Jul 7th 2010 3:52PM
Uprate Nihilim's comment please. I've found no evidence for my statement other than unsubstantiated rumors, and multiple sources confirm Warden 2.
Malkavos Jul 7th 2010 4:40PM
Yay!
Nick S Jul 7th 2010 6:02PM
Nihilas is correct. A new version of Warden has been released which detects many of the common ways that botters do their work. There is also speculation that metrics such as time-in-zone have been added which can draw admin attention to likely botters. However, some continue to bot despite the increased risk.
uncaringbear Jul 7th 2010 8:06PM
From my own experience, I have noticed a marked decrease in the number of bots herbing in the basin in the last month. Up until then, I had been constantly logging tickets with support to report these bots. It literally took from Jan to around the end of May before I finally noticed that the most frequent bots were now gone. It does seem that Blizzard finally took action on these bots, whether through a new Warden or other means.
I know for a fact that a large amount of herbs that I purchased off the AH were sourced by bots. I admit I had some ethical concerns about buying supplies from the people I was trying to shut down. In the end, the need to cut off my competitions supply chain won out. However, I am very glad to see the old bots gone, and I'm more than willing to compete against the other sellers not only in the AH, but also directly in the basin.
Sarsella Jul 7th 2010 3:09PM
"coyboys"?
Basil Berntsen Jul 7th 2010 3:28PM
fixed, thanks.
Etreya Jul 7th 2010 4:38PM
freudian and a half
Tim {the other Tim} Jul 7th 2010 3:21PM
I was worried all of the great prices I was getting on herbs was from hacked people. You farmers need to get out there and farm! People are getting hacked because you have dried up the markets and the prices have exploded.
How do you sleep with yourself?
Psiwave Jul 7th 2010 4:20PM
"How do you sleep with yourself"
Errrm, there are a number of other 'special interest' websites with guides, walkthroughs and even Mods for that kind of thing.
Of course I've never been, just saying...
minimagicman Jul 7th 2010 5:03PM
Well, I'm a mage, so I just use mirror image.
Tirrimas Jul 7th 2010 5:38PM
Warlocks do it with imps.
*shudder*
Kole Jul 7th 2010 9:43PM
Hunters do it with...yeah never mind...*Distracted by ANYTHING other than that image....*
feniks9174 Jul 7th 2010 3:25PM
@ Pyromelter
That's exactly what happened. There was a couple weeks when there wasn't a single Northrend herb on the AH for days at a time and when they showed up, it was about 100+ Gold a stack. I actually managed to grab a couple that someone posted at 50G shortly after server reset and relist them for 90G . . . sold in minutes. All from my handy iPhone Remote Auction House =P
/shameless plug
wow Jul 7th 2010 3:31PM
That's not at all what happened.
99% of the raw mats you buy on the AH are farmed by bots. Do you really think humans can farm that much stuff day after day? Enough to have 20+ stacks on the AH each day? No.
The prices are high because Warden 2.0 was released with 3.3.5. Most bots shut down until they could figure out what changed with the update. I would bet you'll see prices start to come down into the normal price range within a week or two.
feniks9174 Jul 7th 2010 5:37PM
Banhammer, Warden 2.0 . . . W/E. That wasn't my point.
All I said was that the botters were shut down and the herb market came to a screeching halt on my server.
Graylo Jul 7th 2010 3:26PM
I think the existance of "farmers" has been greatly exagerated. I'm sure there are players out there that do or have flown in circles for ours looking for lichbloom, but i don't think it is something people do over the long term unless they have a bot.
I think most of our supplies came from Hoarders. Their primary goal for the game is something else like leveling, grinding rep, maybe doing 5mans with friends, but when they see an herb or an ore, they collect it and save it because they might need it later. It's amazing how quickly that builds up. All of a sudden you realize you have 150 stacks of herbs in your bank and no real need for them. At which point you dump them on the AH.
This would also explain why the supply has dried up. WotLK is dead. Cataclysm is a few months away. People aren't logging in as much. They don't want to run a dungeon for the 100th time. They don't have reps to grind, and therefore are not picking up the random herbs that they see along the way.
If Farmers did exist in mass then this would be the golden age for them. They would be farming more not less because their prices are higher.
Oriflame Jul 7th 2010 3:41PM
Some of that is likely true - especially less supply because of less active players, but I've spent a lot of time farming even though I don't need to - sometimes gathering can be a fun quite way to spend down time IMO. If I'm in the mood for it, I might farm ore for a few hours some days while watching movies etc. Not really the way I'm getting rich, but just something to do sometimes.
Sharvis Jul 7th 2010 4:56PM
I can attest to that for myself at least, partly because I get easily bored from flying around collecting herbs and such. I find I collect much more when I'm doing many other tasks at the same time, namely leveling. I make so much more money leveling a toon than playing a high level one (yes I know that's not optimal, but it's what I can stand.) Even that form of moneymaking has diminished as I'm logging in less, finding other things to do before Cataclysm.