Gold Capped: Where have all the farmers gone?

This post is best read while imagining me singing the title to the tune of "Where have all the cowboys gone" by Paula Cole. There -- good luck getting that out of your head!
Auctioneers rely on farmers for raw materials for various businesses. In fact, we rely very heavily on them, and there are quite a few markets that are only more profitable than farming in terms of gold per hour if we can do them on a very large scale ... much more than any one person can farm.
I've been flying circles around Sholazar Basin and boy, are my arms tired!
The interesting thing about the markets we work on is that it's almost no more actual work to make, for example, 150 Titansteel Bars than it is to make 20. The only difference is in how annoying it is to find mats, and the number of Dr. Who episodes you get to watch while AFK crafting. The difficulty of finding lots of cheap mats is really the only barrier we worry about. And any experienced auctioneer will tell you that, historically in Wrath of the Lich King, it's been no trouble at all.
For some reason, the majority of mornings I'd log in to do my buying, I'd see absolutely dumbfounding amounts of raw mats available for ridiculous prices. Cobalt Ore for under 20g a stack, Saronite Ore for as low as 7g a stack, Adder's Tongue for under 5g a stack and Eternal Shadow for as low as 15g a stack. I have access to unlimited storage and basically unlimited money, so I did what any opportunist with a basement full of toilet paper would do: I bought every last scrap every single time, reasoning that I'd eventually find time to use it.
Boy, am I glad I did!
These days, all these mats are more expensive -- and more importantly, not available in the same volume. Where I used to see 300 stacks of saronite at the same price from four characters, I now see maybe 20 or 30 stacks at a range of prices, with very few large batches. I can only speculate that the people I used to buy from are not farming any more. For one reason or another, most times when I tried to contact these volume producers to arrange a direct purchasing deal, I never heard back. Once in a while, I'd get one of the smaller farmers to start sending me their goods C.O.D., but never one of these enormous suppliers.
I also would periodically see mats advertised in trade for even lower than what was on the AH. I once bought 300 stacks of Lichbloom for a third the regular AH price, and the seller had to log into multiple level one characters, all in the same guild, to trade them to me, six stacks at a time. It was a long evening.
So who farms that much, anyway?
I'm going to hazard a guess that it's not your average players. If they were using some sort of illicit means to farm that amount, they seem to have lost their ability to do it. On my realm for sure, as well as the realms of some of the gold bloggers I hang out with in IRC, the days of massive cheap supplies are gone. So until they come back, what can we do to profit?
If you have stock saved up from plentiful times, revalue it in your head now. Your true cost of using the mats you have in your bank is what you've given up by not selling them, not what you paid for them. Don't pat yourself on the back if you are selling titansteel based on a saronite cost of 9g per ore stack when it's over 15g now. Of course, you're probably the only one of your competitors to think this way. So how do you react when someone keeps undercutting you as if they bought their mats for the old price?
- Sell your mats! Ideally to a competitor for the new inflated price.
- Buy your competitors' stock when they list it below cost.
Remember that it's just a matter of time until the only demand for Northrend goods will be from people leveling crafting skills. Any finished goods you hold when the new expansion drops is pretty much lost money. Also, demand will dwindle as we get closer to that date and people stop raiding and PvPing.
Filed under: Wrath of the Lich King, Cataclysm, Gold Capped
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Reader Comments (Page 3 of 4)
uncaringbear Jul 7th 2010 8:48PM
@Michael
And we will continue to report people who bot.
MisterRik Jul 7th 2010 4:41PM
My main used to be a miner, and while she didn't farm huge quantities of ore, she had a small, comfortable income selling a few stacks of saronite ore every day for 20g-25g/stack. There were actually several people on my server like that, and the price was stable. Then, out of nowhere, there were suddenly a new handful of sellers who were each posting 30 to 50 stacks of saronite at a time, for stupid low prices (often less than 12g50s/stack - less than they'd get by smelting the ore and vendoring the bars). And these people were posting in those quantities, at those prices, day after day after day after day. The fact that they kept it up day after day tells me they weren't just selling old stockpiles - it had to be botters.
They completely destroyed the market, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the old, legit farmers just gave up and switched professions like I did. It just wasn't worth my time any more. Now the botters have been banned and a new crop of legit farmers hasn't arisen yet.
Meg Jul 7th 2010 6:11PM
If the ore was under 12.5 you could have bought it all, smelted it with your miner, and vendored it.
MisterRik Jul 7th 2010 6:57PM
What, and give these people my money?
Meg Jul 7th 2010 11:34PM
You're complaining about the market being "ruined" when, with mining, you could have turned a profit. Seems silly to me.
MisterRik Jul 7th 2010 11:55PM
Eh, it was the principle of the thing to me. Buying their ore myself would have been like a small businessman complaining about a Wal-Mart opening up and undercutting local businesses, and then shopping at Wal-Mart himself.
In any case, they weren't /always/ selling it lower than 12.5. Usually it was just a bit above that, so that it was actually more "profitable" for me to smelt and vendor /my own/ ore than to try to undercut them. I don't remember the actual numbers, but there was a certain price point where these sellers could sell for just above 12.5 so that it wasn't profitable for others to buy/smelt/vendor the stuff, but they were still essentially taking a loss (vs. vendoring bars themselves) once the AH "cut" was subtracted from their proceeds. That prevented anybody from trying to undercut them. And thanks to the sheer volume these guys were posting, you couldn't even do the "buy their low-priced stuff and repost it higher" thing - they'd just come back the next day with 30 more stacks of dirt-cheap ore and all the stuff you bought and reposted would just get returned to you unsold.
The end result was that smelting and vendoring my own bars became the only "profitable" thing to do, but it meant a return of only 1/2 of what I'd been getting previously for the same time/effort. So it just wasn't worth my time.
MisterRik Jul 8th 2010 12:00AM
Also, and directly to the point of the article, buying and smelting the ore and vendoring the bars takes the mats completely out of circulation, still leaving crafters with no mats to buy. It's not like the crafters can go to the vendor and purchase the bars I sold.
Utakata Jul 7th 2010 5:38PM
"Where have all the farmers gone?"
...eventually to take up a more lucrative career in name farming.
Prances in Underpantss Jul 7th 2010 6:28PM
"This post is best read while imagining me singing the title to the tune of "Where have all the cowboys gone" by Paula Cole."
Can we get an audio clip of that?
Basil Berntsen Jul 7th 2010 6:32PM
I'd have to lose a pretty serious bet.
Blunderwear Jul 7th 2010 7:08PM
For you alchemists out there, I think this is the song that best fits...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QZq-wKaBWc
Rob Jul 7th 2010 6:44PM
I cry myself to sleep knowing that my current server has nowhere near this availability of raw materials, even before 3.3.5. I saw two bouts of bottings wherein suddenly 200 stacks of herbs were dumped on the market.
But the typical day is 1-2 stacks on the AH at any given time, of any NR raw material. So...yeah, infinite raw materials is not my problem.
uncaringbear Jul 7th 2010 8:42PM
Basil, I enjoy reading your column even though I have a love/hate relationship with it. However, I have to agree with one of the previous commenters, that you do sometimes come across as looking down the nose at farmers. By your standard of success (gold/hour), people who farmed for raw materials were seen as inefficient. I would be dishonest if I didn't chuckle (in a good way, and not vindictively!) at this column because:
1. It vindicates the people who were willing to put in the time to farm. Farming may have a lower gold/hour rate if only looked at the short term, but if you're playing for the long term, it's a different story.
2. It pretty much confirms that there were a lot of high volume sellers who were directly benefiting from people running bots.
I won't be a hypocrite, though. I know some of the herbs I bought came from botters, but the vast majority of my herbs were farmed by myself. But here's the thing - I knew from the get-go that farming would be an essential component of my AH business, and I never let myself get lazy when it came to farming. When Blizzard did its recent wave of bot bans, I wasn't one of those high volume sellers who suddenly disappeared.
My advice for would-be moguls is this: Always allocate a small amount of time to farm regularly, regardless of whether or not you need the mats. It's NOT an inefficient waste of time. Are you waiting for your raid or random dungeon to start? Go hit the basin while you wait. All those mats that you have built up in your bank will pay off in the future.
Basil Berntsen Jul 8th 2010 10:42AM
Go and read my response to them. If farming is the best use of your time, then do it. I plan on farming during cataclysm's first few weeks. Every market needs a balance between crafters and farmers, and if all the farmers were to switch to crafting, the most gold per hour would be made by farming.
Mal Jul 7th 2010 11:08PM
Um, isn't it all because gold farmers have turned from, you know farming, to stealing accounts instead?
damay Jul 8th 2010 4:24AM
No. You've gone and fallen for the Blizz-Bullshit-Machine there.
Hackers and Botters are two VERY different communities, with two VERY different aims and goals.
Botters - there a numerous bots out there all working and all keeping your accounts quite safe - spend their time flying around, gathering, then selling to you on the AH for cheap prices. Then, when they've made a shit ton of gold, sell it on to either a website (who will sell to you) or direct to you.
Hackers - these are usually talentless script kiddies (mostly located in the *shock* USA). Yes, they'll steal your accounts if your retarded enough to click a link in an email, or download addon_name.exe and run it. To be honest, if you get your account stolen by something like this, you almost deserve it.
Also, whilst I'm on the subject - Most public bots are actually created and hosted in the USA or Europe. There are private bots from Asia, but not nearly as many as Blizzard will have you think.
Hard Dominator Jul 8th 2010 2:01AM
why didn't you just let the herb seller mail you all the herbs? that's what i do. Got a farmer working for me that provides a steady amount of herbs at request whenever you need em.
damay Jul 8th 2010 4:19AM
Has it occurred to you yet, that the reason the bots aren't selling as many mats now, is because there will be a MAJOR rush for them when Cataclysm is released? I'm running 4 bots nearly 24/7 - they're all still here, NO-ONE got banned because of the 'updated' not 'new' warden released in 3.3.5 - there was NO ban wave and you're all a bunch of tards for thinking otherwise.
Luftwaffles Jul 8th 2010 1:24PM
That makes no sense. The value of Northrend mats will drop like a brick when Cata comes out. Nobody will need them anymore except for temporary leveling.
eMaRDi Jul 8th 2010 5:13AM
I think Goldfarming companies simply overdid it. Blizzard "accepted" them for some years, because they were no real threat. Recently with Level 1 chars flooding channels, informing about free mounts on dubios websites etc. I believe Blizzard decided to take some (costly) action, maybe even lockout certain IP address-spaces.
To be honest, I think nowadays "goldfarmer" are more into hacking account. My guild suffered from recent attacks - even with raises security possibilities by Blizzard.
Even with bot level up a toons to a level required for farming Sholazaar there is a margin where profit begins. If your toons is erased before reaching that level, it doesn't make sense after a time.
Personally I appriciate that Blizzard finally took some steps. Farming Sholazaar was simply a annoyance lately.
About prices: Thanks to Auctioneer's tools like Resale search, I get a quite good impression what is the economical situation on our server. Prices are fluctuating in almost every item.
If you're selling large quantities of one item, you can expect the whole faction AH flooded by that item some days later... no coincidence in some cases if you ask me.
Other way around you can profit from such situations as flooded AHs tend to undercut heavily.
I specialize in Eternals and believe me, the drop and rise in price like the tide. You just have to wait...
However, herbs and ore seem to be a different matter. They used to be fluctuating, but currently they are usually low our not selling well.
On one hand, changing markets are interesting, on the other side it is sometimes sad that some interesting items never sell at all...