Gold Capped: WoW Prospector and mailbag
by Basil Berntsen 
Jul 28th 2010 at 9:00AM
I got an email from the creator of WoW Prospector asking me to cover it. After he assured me that his servers are housed in a fire proof room lined with asbestos and at least 300 meters from any residential zones, I agreed, mainly because it's an incredibly useful tool that has saved me a bunch of spreadsheet time. Essentially, the tool will tell you how much money you stand to make prospecting various ores, given the price of ore and what you can sell the raw gems for.
Here's a screenshot of it in action:
All the prospectable ores are listed. The example prices I put in up here are simple guesses, so do your own research. Anyone can search for their own market prices via the mobile auction house in the armory for free, and if you're lucky enough to have The Undermine Journal covering your realm and faction, that will let you get a historical perspective on these prices. Go reread the prospecting section I put into my Jewelcrafting guide. Then go melt some unsuspecting servers over at WoW Prospector!
Mailbag this week
I got a metric buttload of email since I did my last mailbag, and some of them were pretty good questions. Will wrote:
Sorry to say this, Will, but Auctioneer is built from the ground up assuming you will always bid the minimum amount. I don't know of any addons that would let you bid higher than that en masse, however I'll bet there's a way to do it with a macro. Unfortunately, I can't write it. That said, try to time it so you can drop in and check on these just before they're due to sell, and try and pick them up that way. I've long held that the AH could use some major changes to the buying interface, and grouping all similar sized stacks would be a step in the right direction.
Sometimes some jerk posts a hundred single-count infinite dust auctions for a single copper each. We all know they are worth much more and will eventually sell for much more. What is the quickest way to bid 90s on each of them? The way I've been taught to use Auctioneer (thank you!) would have me bid on each by the smallest possible increment, thus filling my mailbox repeatedly. I'd like to skip that part and get to a reasonably low yet real price ASAP.
Simon writes:
I suspect that the new supply is "organic" player farmed stock. A lot of the people I used to buy from have come out of the woodwork of late and are back farming. That said, I'm still in liquidation mode for Cataclysm. I'll buy farmed goods that I feel will retain their value in the expansion; mostly items that are used to level tradeskills.I too noticed when the herb supply dried up, and I instantly assumed there had been a drop in the number of botters, as I would regularly see giant batches of herbs, competing against each other. Then suddenly I'd see a total of 2 stacks of Lich Bloom, for 2 days!
I've seen a few start up again, one at a time, dumping enormous amouts of herbs at cut rates. Should I be buying these up still? Or leave them be? I normally wouldn't have thought twice, but your comments about the current market disappearing with the next expansion are haunting me.
John writes:
First off, I'd recommend that you evaluate your logic about whether this is one person. Put all the suspected alts on your friends list and really watch to see if only one of them are ever on, and whether they're really camping, or just logging in every hour. Secondly, AH grinding undercutters are a very hard problem to deal with, no matter whether it's one person, a group or, much less likely, a bot. The way I see it, you have three options: attack their supply, undercut deeply or try to beat them at their game.Recently I have run into a frustrating problem on my server. I have made a good amount of gold with my blacksmithing until recently another player has been undercutting all my blacksmithing auctions by 10 silver. This particular player is constantly online 20 or more hours a day on his numerous level 1 characters. He/She/It quickly undercuts any blacksmithing item within 5 minutes of posting. I have complained to Blizzard and due to privacy reasons they could only tell me that they will investigate. Well that was about 2 weeks ago and still the same things.
How do you deal with people like this who basically monopolize a whole trade skill market? I even purchased the remote auction house to keep tabs on my auctions no one but him can keep the lowest buyout at anytime of the day for any longer than maybe an hour.
If you attack their supply, bear in mind that you're going to raise your own cost at the same time as theirs. In order for your buying to have any effect on their cost, you need their direct sale farmers learn that they can get a better price on the open market than they can from your competitor. This is a very risky, very expensive, and usually unprofitable plan. A much less risky, but less effective plan would be to sell your items at or close to your cost for a few weeks, or until this person gets tired of watching a screen for 12 hours a day to break even. Lastly, if you try to beat them at their own game by logging in every hour to undercut them, you need to know their schedule. If they always log in at the same interval, you'll get a good market coverage by logging in almost as frequently, but just after they log off. This can't be maintained by any reasonable person for too long, though.
Sogo writes:
My question is, do you think the Christmas pets are going to be valuable in Cataclysm? I had a run where I set the price at 50G a piece and people kept undercutting me, so I just bought all the competition that was listed, I now have close to a hundred of each of the four Christmas pets, I really didn't think there would be that many out there when I started buying them up, considering they are only available once a year and this was in may. What's my best bet for unloading them? Or would you just wait? I'm a little nervous that Cataclysm may not be out before Christmas, and I'll end up losing out.This is the problem with trying to monopolize a market. You can contribute to demand and try to be a long term market-maker, but you can't force the natural balance of supply and demand in the direction you want. The classic monopoly scheme is to buy everything under a certain cost, and ensure that you're always the cheapest option. The two problems with doing this are:
- If you're selling the product for more than the old price, there'll be less demand. Especially on vanity items.
- As the raw producers of your goods discover that you're paying a premium and buying out all stock at the old price, the supply goes up. If it's easily farmable, they'll farm more, and if it's not (like in your situation), they'll still tell their friends and guildies, who will list their items if they have them.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped, plus the author's Call to Auction podcast. Do you have questions about selling, reselling and building your financial empire on the auction house? Basil is now taking questions for a special series, "Ask an auctioneer," at basil@wow.com. Filed under: Gold Capped
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Heilig Jul 28th 2010 9:18AM
Holiday item are almost never a good buy. MANY players have been getting these rewards for 5 years and have no need of them, so tehy dump them every year. Christmas pets especially are risky since they require a snowball to even be able to summon.
photofire1969 Jul 28th 2010 10:49AM
The snowball issue is irrelevant anymore. They are plentiful from the Storm peaks daily. I had soo soo many before I finally got my Polar Bear.
Axolotl Jul 28th 2010 9:19AM
Most of the Goldmakers have been doing this WOWprospector thing with spreadsheets or even on a piece of paper. This is a better looking interface though.
Axolotl Jul 28th 2010 9:20AM
That's why we sell snowballs in July
ducss750 Jul 28th 2010 9:28AM
he insured me "...assured" ?
Aside from being a grammar nazi this looks promising. Anything that can help a semi-casual player like me make money is a valuable asset.
I am curious, though; the author states " WowProspector is less accurate with fewer stacks prospected but becomes more and more accurate the more stacks prospected."
Any idea how it samples and corrects data? He states he uses the Wowhead drop tables
but since it does not access any of your personal prospecting results I assume it relies on updated Wowhead data as it becomes available?
Bernie Roscoe Jul 28th 2010 9:56AM
Statistics 101 over time and with enough trials, the average becomes more apparent.
Blackdemon Jul 28th 2010 10:08AM
I suspect the accuracy mentioned is due to the random amounts that can be prospected from a single prospecting operation.
E.g. from one prospect of titanium ore, you may get a cardinal ruby, from the next you may get a shadow crystal.
So the first prospect would make you more profit, while the second would be less.
These will tend towards the averages for the more stack prospected.
Wellsee Jul 28th 2010 9:30AM
Now if wow prospector had the option to pull from the undermine journal automagically...!
Pikuin Jul 28th 2010 11:46AM
Haha, my exact thoughts when I visited the site. Had to ctrl tab back and forth between the two sites.
matt Jul 28th 2010 9:30AM
Attempts to control a market are almost always ill-advised. My experience is that people who are new to the AH suppose that all of the players on their realm are idiots, which leads them to make these silly market control moves. Never assume you have more gold than your competitors and never assume you are the smartest person on your realm. You are probably not rich enough to corner a market.
Also, don't compete with AH campers, they want it more than you just find another market to work. Whenever I dream up a new business venture, I search the AH for a few days, friend all of the big players and watch for a week or so to make sure that I am not going to be competing with somebody that is on 15+ hours a day.
Thestreal Jul 28th 2010 9:55AM
There will always be someone undercutting your prices. I always seem to have someone undercutting my 2 stacks of an item w/ 10 or more of their own. I just wait it out, eventually mine sell. If the AH isn't working for you, just sit in a city and offer your items for sale there. Just don't spam, that's never a good idea.
Pled Jul 28th 2010 9:59AM
In response to Simon and the herb market:
On one of the realms I play on it seems like herbs are simply not in high supply um...ever. Especially Lichbloom, but really all of them. The same goes with various potions (Runic Mana/Health, Speed, and Wild Magic usually have 1-2 potions a piece until I post a bunch).
For example, I spent yesterday questing in Sholazar Basin, and posted ~700g worth of herbs that I had farmed just yesterday. Woke up this morning, and they were all sold. It's like i'm the only one doing it. Sure, there are rare times (usually tuesday nights) when all the herbalists unload their stocks of important herbs (lichbloom & icethorn) because they know they'll sell to people stocking up on flasks, but I can still just undercut them and sell 300 herbs within an hour. Does anyone else experience this?
I don't know why the people buy my herbs, and I honestly don't care, but I could totally see someone buying all mine and marking them up a little and reselling, and still selling them all.
ducss750 Jul 28th 2010 10:11AM
LOL :)
I do have a grasp of statistics and applications, I was just curious if he loaded his data in any other way.
It reads almost as though the more data YOU acquire (re:prospect) the more accurate the sampling and the reporting of results. My misinterpretation, for which I apologize.
I believe mode is the term you refer to as it defines the point of data that occurs most often in the defined data set.
V Magius Jul 28th 2010 10:31AM
To buy mass amounts of single items cheap, you can use AuctionLite. It allows you to Shift-click or Control-click and buy out multiple auctions at once. Great for that jerk who posts three pages of a single item.
It'll sort it by price for you and since you aren't putting in any values yourself, you don't have to worry about setting too much up.
Rob Jul 28th 2010 1:18PM
Also check out auctionator, it has similiar functions; it combines all same priced stuff into one list, so you can buy out 200 stacks of herbs at 20g each or whatever.
Pyromelter Jul 28th 2010 2:38PM
The problem was that the person was putting auctions up starting at 1c, but not putting a buyout. Auctionator is set up only to buyout, not to bid (or at least that's how the default is, I've not looked at it any deeper).
icepyro Jul 28th 2010 5:58PM
Yeah, on my realm also people have recently started putting bid at 1c and if there is a buyout, it's not worth it. Auctioneer can do bids at minimum, but as the question said, this just means a full mailbox in minutes after everyone else notices the good bid price. So the question is not about buying en masse, but bidding at a bid other than the minimum... en masse.
Honestly, it's better to fill your mailbox than to skip ahead and bid higher. This isn't ebay; your competition has less than 48 hours max to outbid. Convenience always costs. Just wait until it's "short" time remaining to begin the war and good luck. I've bought plenty of stuff at like 1g/stack because of time restraints on bidding wars.
Jay Jul 28th 2010 10:44AM
"I have complained to Blizzard"
Seriously?
I will bet dollars that you live in America, the most capitalistic nation on this planet, and yet you complain that someone is better than you?
Sheesh.
Post for 1s less than him for 12h. Do it again and again and again. You will drive him out of the market.
Drakkenfyre Jul 28th 2010 12:30PM
Until the posting fee on all your items cost more than just letting him sell his slightly lower.
Tofino Jul 29th 2010 1:56PM
My thoughts exactly. Someone is undercutting you, so you report him? Hilarious!
The AH game is cut-throat. I know of one AH player who works from home and keeps a separate computer logged in to WoW the majority of the day, just to cancel-repost. The solution to this is up to you, but it's certainly not "omg Blizz, plz ban this guy for undercutting me."