Gold Capped: When glyph prices hit the wall
Every week, Gold Capped brings you tips on how to make money on the auction house. This article from inscription specialist Steve Zamboni has been brought to you by Seed, the Aol guest writer program that brings your words to WoW.com.
Imagine a typical glyph market on a busy realm: dozens of goblins sitting hunched over their steam calculators surrounding the trading pit, each figuring their costs and profits down to the last copper trying to gain an advantage over the others. Thousands of glyphs are posted every hour, most to be canceled and reposted an hour later at even lower prices. Eventually, one of the goblins has a flash of brilliance (or cracks under the strain; the records aren't clear) and posts all of his glyphs at a loss. The calculation engines grind to a stop, leaving the goblins to stare up at the big board in silence, then at each other. "Now what?"
The low wall
The basic wall is quite simple: Pick a price just above the cost of the ink and post a few bazillion glyphs at that price. Other scribes will be forced to choose between selling below you at a loss and not selling at all. In theory, this locks the other scribes out of the market and eventually forces them to go find new professions. Once they're gone, you can raise prices and rake in the gold. Simple, right?
While this sounds easy in practice, there are a few complications. First, you're not making any gold while this is going on, so you'll be forced to live off your other profession until this battle is over. (You do have another profession, don't you?) Second, you're going to need a lot of ink if you're going to take all of the sales on the server, and any interruption in your herb supply will cause the wall to come tumbling down and all your work to be lost. Last, scribes are a notoriously stubborn lot, and you're probably not the only one building a wall. While you are waiting for the other guy to give up and quit, he's waiting for you to give up and quit. You could both be waiting for a while.
The high wall
A refinement of the endless crafting and undercutting to maintain the wall, the high wall is not designed to have the cheapest glyphs but to have the least cheapest glyphs. (This makes perfect sense to a goblin.) Your prices are still low, but you've left just enough room under your prices for the other wall-builders to carry on crafting and selling their zero-profit glyphs. Your second wall is there to prevent prices from rising. Your plan isn't to sell your glyphs, but to keep relisting the same set of glyphs every two days to force the competition to continue crafting their thousands of glyphs with no hope of actually making any gold at it. (In fact, sold glyphs become an annoyance, as they have to be replaced.)
This arrangement leads to an interesting collaboration between you and your competitor. He's trying to burn you out by taking all of the sales. You're trying to burn him out by giving him all of the sales. The battle becomes a staring contest between the low wall scribes (working feverishly in the sun stacking bricks) and the high wall scribes (sipping piña coladas on the veranda watching them work).
The fallback wall
If you're on a server where you're up against multiple wall-building scribes, there may be little point in adding your own glyphs to the battle. Stacking bricks in the sun doesn't sound like much fun, and you're really not in the mood for more piña coladas. (OK, maybe just one.)
Over the course of the day, buyers are constantly buying random glyphs. Occasionally, a cluster of buyers will all buy the same glyph, punching a hole in both walls. When this happens, the next buyer is stuck paying the next highest price, and opportunity knocks for whichever scribe has that listing.
One way to take advantage of this is what we call the fallback wall. Essentially, you post one of each glyph at 40g and wait. If there's a hole in the wall, you make a quick 40g from the next sale. You may even get multiple sales at that price, until one of the builders wakes up and patches the hole. Despite the comparatively low number of sales, each fallback glyph that does sell will equal the profits from several dozen wall-price sales (without the need for several dozen bottles of ink).
On some servers, you may see multiple fallback walls, each higher than the last. This seemingly irrational behavior is from scribes betting that the hole will be big enough to remove not only the cheap wall glyphs, but also competitors' fallback listings. Glyph prices can soar to extremely high prices on occasion, and there's nothing like a 129g sale to brighten your day (or ruin someone else's).
The high-low strategy
Almost all scribes use addons to automate their auctions (Auctioneer, Quick Auctions, etc.). Posting, canceling and reposting thousands of glyphs is a Herculean task to do manually, and identifying and plugging holes in the wall would requires hours of wading through your inventory and finding which one is running low. The reliance on automated posting means that most players don't even see their listings ... or yours.
High-low was originally designed to break overconfident Auctioneer users, although it can have some success against Quick Auctions users. The first step is identifying your target competitor's thresholds and fallbacks. Using high-low postings, you would post two glyphs, the first just under his threshold to block him from posting (or force him up to his fallbacks), and one just under his fallback to steal the next sale from the hole. Against an Auctioneer user tied to market price listings, this can play merry havoc with his postings.
The wide price range of your postings also poisons his Auctioneer database with worthless information. A combination of 4g and 50g auctions may combine to create an item with a "market value" of 27g, a purely imaginary number. A competitor's Auctioneer may refuse to post any auctions at all if your first listing is too far below this market value, locking him out of the market even though the glyphs are selling well at high prices.
The Prisoner's Dilemma
Once a glyph market matures into wide scale wall-building -- or degenerates to that point, depending on which side of the wall you're standing on -- it rapidly becomes a twisted version of the classic Prisoner's Dilemma. Scribes have the choice of posting at low prices, cutting their own profits as well as their opponent's, or posting at high prices to increase their profits but allowing their opponents to do the same. Given the aggressive and competitive nature of many World of Warcraft players, many will choose the option that causes the most harm to their competitor, even if that option brings harm to themselves. This is an option missing from the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, creating a new puzzle: Goblin's Dilemma.
Read more in this special Gold Capped series on glyphs:
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped, and watch for more articles to come in this special mini-series on inscription. Regular Gold Capped author Basil "Euripides" Berntsen is now taking questions for a special series, "Ask an auctioneer" at basil@wow.com.
Imagine a typical glyph market on a busy realm: dozens of goblins sitting hunched over their steam calculators surrounding the trading pit, each figuring their costs and profits down to the last copper trying to gain an advantage over the others. Thousands of glyphs are posted every hour, most to be canceled and reposted an hour later at even lower prices. Eventually, one of the goblins has a flash of brilliance (or cracks under the strain; the records aren't clear) and posts all of his glyphs at a loss. The calculation engines grind to a stop, leaving the goblins to stare up at the big board in silence, then at each other. "Now what?"
We call it the wall. One scribe picks a price and tries to hold the entire market to that price. If it holds, the market stops at the wall, and everyone on the other side watches helplessly as sales drop to zero. Sometimes it's done to drive off competitors; sometimes it's done to dissuade new competitors from entering the market, or just to burn up excess ink supplies ... or even just out of boredom to cause pointless drama, goblin style.
Like all good goblin inventions, the wall appears simple on the outside, but remains complicated (and somewhat explosive) when put into practice. One complication is that there is more actually more than one type of wall.
The low wall
The basic wall is quite simple: Pick a price just above the cost of the ink and post a few bazillion glyphs at that price. Other scribes will be forced to choose between selling below you at a loss and not selling at all. In theory, this locks the other scribes out of the market and eventually forces them to go find new professions. Once they're gone, you can raise prices and rake in the gold. Simple, right?
While this sounds easy in practice, there are a few complications. First, you're not making any gold while this is going on, so you'll be forced to live off your other profession until this battle is over. (You do have another profession, don't you?) Second, you're going to need a lot of ink if you're going to take all of the sales on the server, and any interruption in your herb supply will cause the wall to come tumbling down and all your work to be lost. Last, scribes are a notoriously stubborn lot, and you're probably not the only one building a wall. While you are waiting for the other guy to give up and quit, he's waiting for you to give up and quit. You could both be waiting for a while.
The high wall
A refinement of the endless crafting and undercutting to maintain the wall, the high wall is not designed to have the cheapest glyphs but to have the least cheapest glyphs. (This makes perfect sense to a goblin.) Your prices are still low, but you've left just enough room under your prices for the other wall-builders to carry on crafting and selling their zero-profit glyphs. Your second wall is there to prevent prices from rising. Your plan isn't to sell your glyphs, but to keep relisting the same set of glyphs every two days to force the competition to continue crafting their thousands of glyphs with no hope of actually making any gold at it. (In fact, sold glyphs become an annoyance, as they have to be replaced.)
This arrangement leads to an interesting collaboration between you and your competitor. He's trying to burn you out by taking all of the sales. You're trying to burn him out by giving him all of the sales. The battle becomes a staring contest between the low wall scribes (working feverishly in the sun stacking bricks) and the high wall scribes (sipping piña coladas on the veranda watching them work).

If you're on a server where you're up against multiple wall-building scribes, there may be little point in adding your own glyphs to the battle. Stacking bricks in the sun doesn't sound like much fun, and you're really not in the mood for more piña coladas. (OK, maybe just one.)
Over the course of the day, buyers are constantly buying random glyphs. Occasionally, a cluster of buyers will all buy the same glyph, punching a hole in both walls. When this happens, the next buyer is stuck paying the next highest price, and opportunity knocks for whichever scribe has that listing.
One way to take advantage of this is what we call the fallback wall. Essentially, you post one of each glyph at 40g and wait. If there's a hole in the wall, you make a quick 40g from the next sale. You may even get multiple sales at that price, until one of the builders wakes up and patches the hole. Despite the comparatively low number of sales, each fallback glyph that does sell will equal the profits from several dozen wall-price sales (without the need for several dozen bottles of ink).
On some servers, you may see multiple fallback walls, each higher than the last. This seemingly irrational behavior is from scribes betting that the hole will be big enough to remove not only the cheap wall glyphs, but also competitors' fallback listings. Glyph prices can soar to extremely high prices on occasion, and there's nothing like a 129g sale to brighten your day (or ruin someone else's).
The high-low strategy
Almost all scribes use addons to automate their auctions (Auctioneer, Quick Auctions, etc.). Posting, canceling and reposting thousands of glyphs is a Herculean task to do manually, and identifying and plugging holes in the wall would requires hours of wading through your inventory and finding which one is running low. The reliance on automated posting means that most players don't even see their listings ... or yours.
High-low was originally designed to break overconfident Auctioneer users, although it can have some success against Quick Auctions users. The first step is identifying your target competitor's thresholds and fallbacks. Using high-low postings, you would post two glyphs, the first just under his threshold to block him from posting (or force him up to his fallbacks), and one just under his fallback to steal the next sale from the hole. Against an Auctioneer user tied to market price listings, this can play merry havoc with his postings.
The wide price range of your postings also poisons his Auctioneer database with worthless information. A combination of 4g and 50g auctions may combine to create an item with a "market value" of 27g, a purely imaginary number. A competitor's Auctioneer may refuse to post any auctions at all if your first listing is too far below this market value, locking him out of the market even though the glyphs are selling well at high prices.
The Prisoner's Dilemma
Once a glyph market matures into wide scale wall-building -- or degenerates to that point, depending on which side of the wall you're standing on -- it rapidly becomes a twisted version of the classic Prisoner's Dilemma. Scribes have the choice of posting at low prices, cutting their own profits as well as their opponent's, or posting at high prices to increase their profits but allowing their opponents to do the same. Given the aggressive and competitive nature of many World of Warcraft players, many will choose the option that causes the most harm to their competitor, even if that option brings harm to themselves. This is an option missing from the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, creating a new puzzle: Goblin's Dilemma.
Read more in this special Gold Capped series on glyphs:
Filed under: Economy, Guest Posts, Gold Capped







Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
cmsonfire Aug 2nd 2010 9:25PM
This is the one article that ALWAYS flies right over my head.
No matter how many times i read about funny, pina-colada sipping goblins.
xenothaulus Aug 1st 2010 2:19PM
The wall has been constructed on my server in the past week or two. Every. Single. Glyph. is posted at 3g50s. Ink of the Sea is usually 3-5g, and not one herb sells for less than 20g/stack. I want to know where the wallbuilder is getting their mats, because s/he is posting 5-10 of each, Every Day. I've logged in at all kinds of idiotic hours, looking for supplies or his/her downtime to slip some in, and s/he is Always Logged In. 8am, noon, 5.43pm, THREE O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING, doesn't matter.
I suspect botting. Or a devil sent to annoy the hell out of me by a bemused god.
Xsinthis Aug 1st 2010 2:21PM
sounds like s/he is doing his/her job well then. I'm just glad something like this hasn't happened yet on my server, the economy is crap as it is already
No Name Aug 1st 2010 2:25PM
Try buying them all, just to lower their stock, and when they crack post them all.
Rob Aug 1st 2010 3:36PM
Buy out a bunch of them. When cata hits every single glyph is going to be selling, and people are going to stop farming. Herbs will be very scarce, while glyphs (even bad glyphs) will sell like crazy.
Zaros Aug 1st 2010 3:37PM
agreed with no name. a similar thing happened to me on my server and i had about 20000 gold left so i bought ALL of the underpriced glyphs and sold them at the "fallback" wall level ( or just above his old prices [which was 30g])
I ended up making around 6 times the amount i had before. (WOOT 120000 GOLD!)
he was awake at 3AM?????!!?!?!?!?!!?
AltairAntares Aug 1st 2010 3:43PM
Sounds like a good way to blow a ton of money...
Heilig Aug 1st 2010 6:48PM
You guys are writing off the possibility that this is in fact a chinese gold-selling operation that has multiple people constantly farming herbs, other people frequently milling and crafting, and a third TEAM of people actually camping the auction house on a single toon.
This may seem far-fetched, but it is actually happening on many servers and is self sustaining by being the only option for glyphs. When the seller's investment is time from other people and that is all, they stand to make 50,000+ gold per week.
We can't do that because we have to factor in our time consumption, but imagine if you had someone that you could pay a few dollars a week to spend all their waking time farming you herbs and milling ink for you. You would be able to dominate the market too.
This is a frequent occurence on high-pop servers.
Nick S Aug 1st 2010 8:36PM
Botting is in no way necessary to achieve this, just a few hours every couple of days.
Roboticus Aug 2nd 2010 10:28AM
Heilig is right and it is happening on my server. I have befriended a couple of the Chinese farmers (mostly to practice my Chinese) and though they wouldn't talk to me at first for fear I was a GM, they eventually warmed up to me and let me in on the whole process. AH botting is the new thrust of Gold Selling companies, though they use it to augment their traditional botting techniques. They own the gem, glyph, and enchant scrolls market with 100% uptime, and with their goods representing over 65% of those categories' postings. The real hard thing is they understand all the "goblin" tactics quite well and know how to respond. They are mostly impervious to the Wall, as their costs are far lower than a non-farmer and so they can remain profitable far below our breaking point. The only wall that can beat them is the irrationally low, profit losing wall, but I guarantee they have more capital ready to win a price war and they will just wait for the profit-loser to lose.
Chmmr Aug 2nd 2010 2:59PM
This article missed a key strategy, which is to know how to avoid provoking other sellers into cracking, and building a wall at all.
My server has a tenuous relationship between the most active of sellers. Most seem to know when to back down, and just log off. The most experienced glyph sellers are filthy rich already. If you're in the mood to camp the AH, do it for one or two days in a row maximum. But then, relist with longer gaps in between each cycle. If you let your competitors make a bit of profit, everyone ends up with some tidy profits, and the chance for a wall is less. Note that the wall is most often built from SPITE. Don't be so greedy that others feel you are being a jerk. The wall is less likely to appear, and everyone will sell their glyphs at higher prices for a large portion of the popular glyphs.
Even though you think you should be able to buy a 25000g Blood Queen's Crimson Choker at the drop of a hat-- you don't. Try to recall that being worth over 25000g on a server puts you ahead of the VAST majority of players. Give competitors a day in the sun every week, and everyone gets rich.
Zuka Aug 2nd 2010 6:04PM
I had this happen on my server, recently, except that the seller posted about 20 of every glyph at 1 gold or less. Never seen anything like this before. In one day he obliterated the glyph market. I'm still not sure what this guy's goal was, or where/how he got the mats to make and sell all those glyphs at such a loss.
Up until this point there were 3 of us that were regular sellers and we battled to be just slightly less than the others, but we never went below a certain point. Without talking to each other we just knew once it hit a low point that we didn't want to go under we would let the glyphs sell out then start over again at a much higher pricepoint. This slow grind down in price followed by a high spike would be repeated over and over again. Before this market crash if a new or casual seller would vastly undercut us, one of us would just buy them out.
The glyph market is so messed up now I don't even bother with it anymore. Luckily I have maxed out every profession so I have other markets that I can turn to for now.
Sintraedrien Aug 1st 2010 2:23PM
Heh- of course, in a few discrete instances, the purchaser can find a way to build his own wall. If he is hunting say Zandalar rep and is buying all bijous (which must be used in certain combinations), he can set his own imaginary point (I chose a mid-point of 50 silver per bijou) and buy everything up to that limit, but nothing over. Inevitably, some sellers will attempt to force his price higher, while eventually Auctioneers will see whats going on and drop their price below the limit. By keeping the limit arbitrary, (and secret), the price will usually drop enough to get what you want over a period of time, due to the averages asymtotically approaching your limit.
I got exalted with Zandalar, and started a bijou market (which probably dried up shortly after I stopped buying) on my own terms.
:)
Sintra E'Drien of the Ebon Blade, né Sindorei (now Worgen-curious)
Will Aug 1st 2010 2:24PM
Ah, the good old days of fighting your enemies to keep prices high, fighting with your customers to buy your product, and fighting with yourself to not inflate your prices for quick profit (while ruining long-term success).
If WoW ever taught me anything about business, it was how hard it can be to maintain a balance between price and profit.
wutsconflag Aug 1st 2010 2:25PM
I wonder...
Are the majority of your gold-capped posts about Inscription because that's what you do, or is it that that's the "major" gold-making profession at the moment?
As for myself, I tend to make more gold off of my daily epic transmutes than I do from glyphs, due to several glyph makers trying to "own" the market. I've decided, rather than try to beat them (and sell at a loss), I'm just going to repost all my glyphs at cost (including the 1s posting fee), with fallback a couple of gold higher. If I can't make any gold due to the guy camping the AH 23 hours a day (literally, and yes, I know what literally means), then neither will he. At first, he just bought me out. I combated this by making more glyphs (went from 4 to 10). Now, he either auto-fallbacks, or posts at a loss. Considering the time it takes me to gather all my glyphs from the mail and repost (under thirty minutes, every 2 days), I'm okay with either. I still make a couple hundred gold a day (not from glyphs themselves), on average*, but I know he's losing gold. And in the end, that warms my heart more than the meager amount of gold I make.
(*NOTE: Except for the days - randomly - when he's offline for more than a few hours. Those days tend to make up for the rest of the week.)
JKWood Aug 1st 2010 3:35PM
This one wasn't written by Basil.
Personally, I think he's overlooking a very, VERY simple tactic for taking care of a wall: buy them out, then relist. It works well on my server.
Tyr Aug 1st 2010 3:35PM
"Are the majority of your gold-capped posts about Inscription because that's what you do, or is it that that's the "major" gold-making profession at the moment?'"
It's probably the most complex market out there atm and if you wanna make cash from it, you need more help than with other professions. Although I admit there have been a bit too many inscription articles lately. Stop educating my competition!
Zamboni Aug 1st 2010 4:08PM
There's only so much you can write about Blacksmithing and Eternal Belt Buckle posting strategies. Most of the other professions can be summed up in a couple of paragraphs, and will never need to be revisited again. Inscription has been out for almost two years, and we're still arguing about even which herbs to mill.
You can also expect that your Blacksmith competitor is a rational, profit-driven businessman. You can also assume that your Scrivener competition is none of these. A battle to the death against irrational, self-destructive opponents can be more entertaining than just another day posting the same old gems at the same old prices. (And yes, the gold helps.)
In a few months, Cataclysm will rewrite the entire way we make and sell glyphs, and all this will start over again from scratch. (Then again, we are in the business of selling paper.)
uncaringbear Aug 1st 2010 10:25PM
@wutsconflag
So you're upset at the other seller because he puts more time into the AH game than you, and out of spite, you're going to destabilize the prices?
Sintraedrien Aug 1st 2010 2:26PM
This market lock brought to you courtesy of the remote Auction House, please login to your Blizzard account to begin your own subscription.
Thank you,
:)
Sintra E'Drien of the Ebon Blade, né Sindorei (now Worgen-curious)
Ps. It's not me, I don't have the time, energy or money to use the Remote AH. And don't tell people which realm either. ;)