Gold Capped: Ask an auctioneer -- time is money
This week's Gold Capped (from Basil "Euripides" Berntsen) is brought to you by the letter "s." Shortly followed by the letters "t," "e," "a" and "k." I'm in Texas on day job business, and nobody -- I'll tell you what, nobody -- does steak as well as Texas. The barbeque here is also pretty darn good. Mmm, meat. Oh yeah, and it's like a bajillion degrees out all the time. It's so hot that the wind doesn't cool you down; it makes you hotter! Want to make money on the auction house? For the inside line on crafting for disenchanting, transmutation, cross-faction arbitrage and more, check in every Wednesday. Also, feel free to email Basil any comments, questions or hate mail!
I swear on everything that's good and just in the world that I will eventually dig myself out from under these emails. If you ever stop sending them, that is. So if I don't get back to you in a few weeks or so, try emailing me on my podcast email and see if you have better luck there.
Luca asks:
Luca, I have two pieces of advice for you. First, learn how and when to use automation. Auctioneer's Snatch tool can be a huge source of lost profits and wasted time if you use it incorrectly or don't keep it up to date. This is true of any automation, but especially true when it comes to buying. Selling has an undo button of sorts, as you can cancel an auction. Buying is a one-way ticket. Still, so long as you make more good moves than bad with automation, you're hopefully still in the black. Keep your snatch prices up to date and always think before clicking "buy" when it makes a suggestion.
Secondly, you have two options for your unwanted and overpriced bars. You can either undercut and sell them fast, liberating money you can use to make profits elsewhere, or if time rather than investment capital is your limiting factor, you can "overcut" and wait for someone to buy out all the reasonably priced bronze. The overcutting method will take longer and has an inherently higher risk of returned auctions but can potentially get you your money back. Check the Undermine Journal (or Market Watcher, if the Undermine Journal isn't yet available for your realm) to see when the demand is typically highest, and limit your auctions for those times.
Speaking of limiting factors, I would suggest that taking a good look at your business and determine what it is. Money, time, profession availability and inventory space are all common ones. My business is limited mostly by time but also by inventory space and professions. I don't have the time to do everything I'm capable of, I take more time crafting than I would if I had less inventory (longer AFK stretches means more efficient crafting), and I don't have the time to level another character to get the last two maxed-out profession slots I want. I know my limitations and work around them.
My old pal Kheldul writes:
Bill asks:
It's helpful to understand what you're really doing when you try to flip for a profit like this: You're basically acting as a market maker or broker. You assume the risk of unsold inventory in exchange for the potential of a profit without a large time investment. It's similar to ticket scalpers outside hockey games. The key difference is that while the NHL tries to prevent scalpers because there are a fixed number of seats for sale, your suppliers won't even notice what you're doing and will simply manufacture more next week to meet the "increased demand." The process of flipping has a net effect of depressing prices.
Still, there's money to be made if you can stomach the risk and occasional losses. It's a real thrill when it works! Still, don't put all your eggs in this basket. You should always try to have a couple of reliable markets that you can count on to keep you afloat when you make a bad move, so level that profession!
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped, plus the author's Call to Auction podcast. Do you have questions about selling, reselling and building your financial empire on the auction house? Basil is now taking questions for a special series, "Ask an auctioneer," at basil@wow.com.
I swear on everything that's good and just in the world that I will eventually dig myself out from under these emails. If you ever stop sending them, that is. So if I don't get back to you in a few weeks or so, try emailing me on my podcast email and see if you have better luck there.
Luca asks:
Thanks to a misapplication of the snatch tool, I recently found myself the unhappy owner of a ridiculously large stock of bronze bars, purchased at around 100 percent of their regular value (which seems only ever to go down since). I'd like to try to recover my profits as best I can, having learned my lesson -- any ideas? Should I simply wait it out and leak them back into the economy slowly or try something more daring?
Luca, I have two pieces of advice for you. First, learn how and when to use automation. Auctioneer's Snatch tool can be a huge source of lost profits and wasted time if you use it incorrectly or don't keep it up to date. This is true of any automation, but especially true when it comes to buying. Selling has an undo button of sorts, as you can cancel an auction. Buying is a one-way ticket. Still, so long as you make more good moves than bad with automation, you're hopefully still in the black. Keep your snatch prices up to date and always think before clicking "buy" when it makes a suggestion.
Secondly, you have two options for your unwanted and overpriced bars. You can either undercut and sell them fast, liberating money you can use to make profits elsewhere, or if time rather than investment capital is your limiting factor, you can "overcut" and wait for someone to buy out all the reasonably priced bronze. The overcutting method will take longer and has an inherently higher risk of returned auctions but can potentially get you your money back. Check the Undermine Journal (or Market Watcher, if the Undermine Journal isn't yet available for your realm) to see when the demand is typically highest, and limit your auctions for those times.
Speaking of limiting factors, I would suggest that taking a good look at your business and determine what it is. Money, time, profession availability and inventory space are all common ones. My business is limited mostly by time but also by inventory space and professions. I don't have the time to do everything I'm capable of, I take more time crafting than I would if I had less inventory (longer AFK stretches means more efficient crafting), and I don't have the time to level another character to get the last two maxed-out profession slots I want. I know my limitations and work around them.
My old pal Kheldul writes:
I'm betting that the inflation will be about as much as we saw in the last expansion launch. You asked the right question about dailies; the majority of money coming into the economy is from quest rewards and monster loot, and the only place money leaves the economy is gold sinks. I am fairly certain that quests will reward more money and that more loot will drop, and I haven't heard of any significant increases to the gold sinks. Still, 70k will be out of reach of almost the same percent of players as it is now. The difference will be that your buyers have more money, so you'll find it easier to make gold on the AH.I had been making fairly decent gold "creating value" on the AH. I'm up to about 70k gold. I'm wondering what kind of inflation or deflation may occur due to the influx of players leveling up to 85 will be. Will people land at 85 with gold or without? Will dailies earn 1000g/hour? Will my 70k of gold be able to buy my main a couple epic BoEs, or will it get me a cheeseburger and small Coke?
Bill asks:
It's not a waste, but it's still a risk. When it works, it's like printing money, but when it doesn't work, you've put hours of effort and work into earning negative profits. That's a hard pill to swallow, and some people can't take the risk. The upside is that you can scale this business very easily; the more money you have, the more profits you can make, until you reach an equilibrium where you have evened out the supply across the week.One thing I'd like to know is if there's real money to be made in reselling for profit. Gold Capped has covered market swings and I get that, but is it worth my time to be buying cheap raid supplies on Saturdays and reselling them on Tuesdays? Are there specific methods aside from manually tracking the swing on specific items each week for predicting profit? Is buying items shown to be at a lower percentage in Auctioneer a real noob maneuver?
I really appreciate your help. If I'm wasting my time trying to take advantage of market swings and reselling and I'd be better off just leveling a profession and trying to corner a market, let me know.
It's helpful to understand what you're really doing when you try to flip for a profit like this: You're basically acting as a market maker or broker. You assume the risk of unsold inventory in exchange for the potential of a profit without a large time investment. It's similar to ticket scalpers outside hockey games. The key difference is that while the NHL tries to prevent scalpers because there are a fixed number of seats for sale, your suppliers won't even notice what you're doing and will simply manufacture more next week to meet the "increased demand." The process of flipping has a net effect of depressing prices.
Still, there's money to be made if you can stomach the risk and occasional losses. It's a real thrill when it works! Still, don't put all your eggs in this basket. You should always try to have a couple of reliable markets that you can count on to keep you afloat when you make a bad move, so level that profession!
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
Hëx Aug 26th 2010 2:36PM
I'm up to about 150K gold selling glyphs, you just need to properly set up Quick Auctions 3 and Auctioneer, plus be on a server that supports a good glyph market!
Ominous Aug 26th 2010 4:38AM
"nobody -- does steak as well as Texas"
Get a passport. Several nations do it better.
"the snatch tool"
There is no "the" snatch tool. This guy can't seem to go one post, without confirming Auctioneer as his pimp.
Stop entirely. You don't need to use that piece of bloat. There are several other smaller, more efficient, addons.
Spend some time in the Auction sections of curse and wowinterface.
"One thing I'd like to know is if there's real money to be made in reselling for profit."
Two words: School holidays. There is a lot less reselling profit to be made, during this time.
Children frequently get auctioneering blood-lust, going as far as to undercut vendor prices for items, just to "get auctions sold."
That might sound like a resale opportunity, until another one does the same, ad nauseum.
During this time, the auction house is an excellent way to equip yourself - if needs be - but rarely more.
A lot of people don't understand what's happened recently. Where have your usual profits gone? School holidays.
Wait until they are over, and the markets stabilise again, to get back to reselling.
If you've got the cash and space, you can take this period to stock up - for future reselling.
If you're dealing in stacks, put in 5-10 at an absurdly low price. Often, they'll be bought. Just as often, they'll be beaten. Purchase those.
In North America (Canada and the US) and the UK, school holidays generally end after the first weekend in September.
Stilhelm Aug 26th 2010 10:03AM
I'd noticed recently the oddity of auctions being listed under vendor price again. School just started again, so more than likely, as you mention, that was kids trying to get their auctions sold before school starts.
I have to admit, pricing something absurdly low just to induce others to beat your price in this kind of market never occurred to me, largely because I couldn't figure out why someone would list things for under vendor price to begin with. I think I may try this just for kicks sometime.
Basil Berntsen Aug 26th 2010 10:52AM
I write about what I (and all the other successful auctioneers I talk to) use. If you have something else, feel free to mention it. Don't just call me out for using a tool you don't, though. Especially without giving people some evident that shows that your way is better than mine. Which it probably isn't.
Bronwyn Aug 26th 2010 1:15PM
I love that whenever someone complains that Basil uses Auctioneer, they merely say things like "Spend some time in the Auction sections of curse and wowinterface." but never give any solid examples of what works better. I'm sure Basil is as open as I am to different addons- but I've yet to find one that offers me what I want in an easy-to-use package. If you have suggestions, I'd be happy to try them out as well, but don't just tell me to "spend time looking" because, frankly, I don't like spending my auctioning time testing new addons to see if they work when I could be getting what I need to be doing done with Auctioneer.
Urgata Aug 26th 2010 9:20AM
How long does it take Auctioneer's market prices to catch up to changes in market conditions?
E.g. for a long time Auctioneer was telling me dream shards were worth almost 10g, when the auction house was overflowing with shards for 4g and less. (Of course, now Auctioneer is looking pretty smart, because prices have come back up.) Or the few weeks when the herb farmers disappeared and any Northrend herbs were selling for 2-3g instead of .7 or less.
Does it use a lifetime average? An average only over the last X days/weeks? One weighted more toward recent prices?
Another question about estimated "market prices". Often I will be looking at this new green armor piece I picked up and see Auctioneer says "Market price: 100g". Then I look at the next line and see "Number seen: 0". Oh. Click *Disenchant*. Even if there are just a few historical prices, that just means someone decided to list a "Happy Fun Rock" for 200g just for giggles. How many price samples do you want Auctioneer to have before you have any confidence that the estimated "market price" has any validity?
Puntable Aug 26th 2010 10:26AM
Enchanting mats have no deposit. A player can be way overpriced and list them week after week for no loss. You have to remember that Auctioneer can tell you what the average ASKING price is, but cannot tell you if it ever actually SOLD at that price. Try wowecon.com for actual selling prices.
Basil Berntsen Aug 26th 2010 10:52AM
@puntable they do now :) The minimum deposit is 1s.
peter Aug 27th 2010 1:00PM
Money is ridiculously easy to make using the AH. Raid supplies, scrolls, glyphs, gems (cut&uncut), epic craftables, fish (cooked&uncooked), dailies, boes, disenchant supplies, there's literally a million ways.
the key is the DIVERSIFY and buy LOW sell HIGH at the RIGHT TIME.
e.g. buy enough flask supplies for raids on SAT/SUN when the prices are rock bottom from the botters/casuals and resell TUES/WEDS/THURS during guild raid nights. Hell I even had a contract with guilds to supply them with say, 100 flasks per week.
My lv1 bank alt is pimped out with his own guild, the 5000g guild bank slot, the 2000g vanity ring and I want for nothing in wow.
my main piece of advice? invest in a pencil and a notepad, calculate the cost of making EVERYTHING, did you know it costs 500g these days with the removal of smelting cooldowns to make a epic craftable and people are STILL buying them for 2000g??? That was the easiest 20-40k i ever made.
woo @ archimonde/us
Bronwyn Aug 26th 2010 1:25PM
I have to agree with this. Diversify- One thing I do myself (among many others, but this is just the example) is transmute epic gems every week, and even if they are the same color of gems I don't just cut them all into the same thing- for example if I'm doing Kings Ambers I will cut some Quick, some Brilliant, maybe a hit rating one in there if I got lucky procs and feel like I'd be listing too many of one kind. Same with meta gems- I spent some time watching prices and seeing which ones sold at all for a decent profit, and I just cut a few of those and auction them and when they're gone I cut a few more- I never list more than 5 at a time (this number is going to vary on your server depending on how populous it is), and mostly I don't get too many back.
In addition to diversifying, it really pays to spend some time getting to know the markets. Don't just buy a whole crapload of Cardinal Rubies with your honor because you know that's the most popular/most expensive color; look around, watch the market. Are there regularly a ton of unsold gems of that color because there's so much competition? I mean, on my server, something like a purified dreadstone that is needed by a LOT of casters to activate their meta gem is down to like, 80 gold at times. I avoid that cut like the plague as a result.
Getting to know the market also really helps because you'll be able to tell when a price is really much lower than it should be- and what the high threshold would be. Plus, continuing to watch it will help you know when it's time to stop buying low/selling high because the price isn't going that high anymore. I was making quite a bit buying ebonweave cheap and selling it high for a while, but now the price has stabilized more in the 30g a pop stage (I was buying around 20 selling at 50g per), so I don't bother. Which brings me to another point- get to know the prices so you know what is a very low price and what isn't; Set your thresholds and stick to them. It helps.
neogramps Aug 27th 2010 7:42AM
hehe - for some lower risk/high profit BS, go for the rod market- people buy fel iron, adamantine and eternium rods for silly money - 75-90 for 10Gs worth of mats, or several hundred G for a 10 minute lap of terrokar forest in the morning - easy money
spamofchaz Aug 26th 2010 3:30PM
I resell on a regular (and profitable) basis. I don't use the resell tab, though. Instead, I have my snatch function set up to search for the items I'm interested in (mostly crafting mats, they're always in demand) that are selling for roughly 50% of what I'd sell them for (give or take a few %). For example, I'll buy up any Bronze Bars that are selling for less than 50s each and then I'll repost them for 95s each I'm continually amazed at how much.
So basically, it's set up to scan for items in the 'blue' price range (less than 50% of normal) and sell them at or near 100% their value.
I get a steady supply of mats to purchase and I sell most of my stuff on their auction. Also, the significant spread I insist on protects me from buying huge quantities of any one item (unless there's been a hacked account out there farming, in which case, I take the opportunity to stock up and sell slowly back).
I think the key is that while everyone wants a bargain, they're willing to pay full price for something they need *now* for their profession/pot/enchant/armor. The fact that I don't gouge anyone and keep my prices at 100% (according to auctioneer) makes them seem normal and acceptable. Which, of course they are. I'm charging the 'normal' price. I just happened to get my supply at a steep bargain!