The OverAchiever: Pimp thy ride, part 2

I have yet to see one of these babies flying around my own server, so I've borrowed a picture from Wowhead. The Onyxian drake is a very rare drop off the updated version of Onyxia that went live with patch 3.2.2, and it puts me in mind of what Onyxia might have looked like if you'd caught her in Dragon High School.
Back when the fifth anniversary patch went live, the mount was ninja'd so frequently that we couldn't go a day without having a complaint about it land in our inbox. That resulted in a remarkably forthright Breakfast Topic -- Would you ninja the Onyxia mount? -- and it turns out that, yes, lots of players will steal a drop if it's cool, rare and they don't think they'll ever get a shot at it again.
That said, it's been a while since I last heard any complaints about this -- I can only assume because Onyxia is pugged less frequently these days compared to Icecrown Citadel and Halion -- and it does make you wonder whether the would-be ninjas would have the same opinion today. Today's must-have, cool drop is tomorrow's outdated content.

As much as I like the frostwyrms and their art is really neat, they reuse the same tired drake animations that have been in the game since day one, so it's hard to get as excited about them as the proto-drakes. There's a grisly story attached to the ICC frostwyrms, as this is the letter you'll receive upon completing the requisite achievement:
<name>,
As the Lich King's influence wanes, some of his more powerful minions have wrested free from his grasp.
This frost wyrm drake my men captured is a prime example. She has a will of her own and then some.
One of my men lost an arm breaking her in, but now she takes to riders fairly well -- provided they themselves are skilled and strong willed.
Please accept this magnificent beast as a gift from the Knights of the Ebon Blade. It was an honor to fight along your side in the greatest of batles.
With honor,
Darion Mograine
Not quite as pleasant as the letter we got from Brann Bronzebeard. I've always hoped that the unfortunate guy in question was someone among the Ebon Blade or Forsaken who could have an already-dead arm reattached without too much fuss. The alternative is somewhat freaksome, but the Ebon Blade isn't the sort of faction likely to dwell on the particulars.

From a distance, you can't tell the difference between this and the 10-man version, but up close you'll see it's much lighter-colored -- almost as if someone had decided to wash the dragon's bones before assembling the skeleton for reanimation. At least, that's the only plausible explanation I can offer, which makes me wonder which poor soul among the Scourge was that obsessive-compulsive.
Lore-wise, there's something slightly tone-deaf about riding around Azeroth on a giant dead dragon salvaged from the bowels of Icecrown, which is something that occurred to me on the beta while running around Tirisfal and the former Plaguelands. We just spent an entire expansion ridding the world of the undead threat, and now we're riding their pet necromantic horrors because ... uh ... they're cool. Talk to a few Forsaken NPCs while perched atop this living embodiment of their unnatural hell, and you'll think: Is there any form of transportation in the game more ironic and insulting than this? We're probably safe on that count until Blizzard programs a reputation vendor offering flying wood-choppers outside the port to Darnassus.

The heroic Lich King encounter is a thoroughly murderous fight from start to end, and I honestly don't know that it's going to be all that much easier in Cataclysm. However, Invincible's going the way of Mimiron's Head in the next expansion -- expect to see it as a rare drop rather than the 100 percent drop it is now, which should keep the poor horse about as infrequent a sight as it is now.
I adore Invincible's design. I'll grant that the floppy hooves animation while it's idling in midair or flying around are a little on the comical side, but if I recall correctly, the horse was put down by Arthas after its legs were broken, so that's not a real surprise. As with Mimiron's Head and the Ashes of Al'ar, be prepared to roll against everyone in the raid if you're ever around to see it drop.
Wrathful Gladiator's Frostwyrm
No player actually has this mount yet, as it'll be rewarded for reaching the Gladiator rank in 3v3 or 5v5 arena at the end of season eight. If you're on track for this, your 310 percent mount needs should be met, but obviously it's not the sort of thing you should bank on at this point.

Damn right this thing's a 310 percent mount; no one would put more than a year's worth of blood, sweat and tears into it if it weren't. It's actually for that reason that I've always felt the Red Proto-Drake (the reward for Glory of the Hero) should have been a 310 percent mount as well, because the meta requires so much work even today. But the purple version's an acceptable substitute.
Any player can get a violet proto-drake if they put the time and effort into the game's eight major holidays over the course of a year. It's not fast and it's often not pretty (e.g., School of Hard Knocks, Sinister Calling), but as one of our commenters here once observed, there are only two ways to get the really good stuff in WoW: fast and difficult, or slow and relatively easy.
OverAchiever's covered each of Azeroth's holidays, so if you ever find yourself hurting for information on a specific achievement or meta, here are the 2009/2010 guides:
- Lunar Festival
- Fool For Love
- Noblegarden
- Children's Week
- Midsummer Fire Festival
- Brewfest
- Hallow's End
- Winter Veil
Working on achievements? The Overachiever is here to help! We cover everything from Glory of the Hero and Insane in the Membrane to Master of Alterac Valley and Lil' Game Hunter, and you can count on us to guide you through Azeroth's holidays and special events. Filed under: Achievements, The Overachiever






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 5)
Ad134 Sep 2nd 2010 4:12PM
I finally got my violet proto-drake recently...
On a character I hardly use.
FML
puppybrother Sep 2nd 2010 4:20PM
Heh, oops.
In about a month and a half I'll have my third violet proto Drake. After that, I'm done.
Skarn Sep 2nd 2010 10:12PM
I got my Violet proto-drake at Brewfest last year. I was pretty excited. Then I opened my Oracle's egg from that day and got a green one too. I finally got the green proto-drake, when I would never ride it anyway.
Yeesh.
SunGod228 Sep 3rd 2010 7:56AM
That's actually why I'm really excited about the ability for all fliers to go 310% finally can pull out some of the other flying mounts again.
dodgeballer2005 Sep 4th 2010 1:17AM
@Ad134 That's what I said on my DK, but he became my Main from it. I'll copy/paste the blog I made.
"Today, I got the Reins for Rivendare's Deathcharger... on my DK alt. I was kinda bummed, because I spent a year trying to get that for my warrior and on my second run, this guy gets it. Perhaps it was meant to be. I looked up more info on Death Knights (since Rivendare is one as well) and got into the lore pretty hard."
Today, I got a rare mount... on my NEW main. MLIA.
Ad134 Sep 4th 2010 4:02AM
I got it on the character that USED TO BE my main. I got tired of playing a hunter. Two more level 80s later, I get the mount on the character that it would least affect. Typical.
aqgamer7643 Sep 2nd 2010 4:17PM
I'm happy that they are adding 310 training however im uncertain how it works. Does it make all my flyers operate at 310? I really hope so because the only flyer I use is my Time-Lost Proto Drake a mount that i still don't quite understand not being 310. The thing is dreadfully awful to camp as it patrols and shares spawns and multiple patrol routes. Not to mention the spawn is like 16 hours+
Kunikenwad! Sep 2nd 2010 5:24PM
I believe that all mounts will scale to your fastest speed, including ground mounts (the ground mount part is speculation, the flyers are all but confirmed).
http://www.wow.com/2010/04/16/twitter-developer-chat-for-april-16th-2010-organized-by-catego/
The part you're interested in:
Q: Do you intend to have all 280% flying mounts scale to 310% when a 310% mount is earned, or will only purchased mounts do so?
A: Our current plan, is that in Cataclysm, you can learn a new rank of flying that lets all flying mounts move at 310% (even current 280% mounts). That will probably be as fast as mounts will ever get. We don't like it that when you get a 310% mount that you stop using your old ones.
I hope the slower ground mounts scale upwards; the epic wolf has always looked inferior to the regular wolf mount, imo.
BillDoor Sep 2nd 2010 8:26PM
Having tested it on beta, after you learn the highest riding skill, either by paying another 5000g or by having a 310% mount already, this is what happens:
All of your ground mounts (with the exception of the turtles) move at 100% on the ground.
All of your flying mounts move at 310% in the air, and 100% on the ground.
Artificial Sep 2nd 2010 4:20PM
"The drop rate for the ashes is thought to be around 1 percent, and Tempest Keep is still on a weekly raid lockout, so you'll probably be farming Kael for a long time before you see one."
Right. Also, if you're going in a group of ten, that's 0.1% chance per run of getting one. At 52 attempts per year, your odds of getting one in a year of attempts is 5%.
Realistically speaking, the odds are against you ever getting one. They'll be turning off the WoW servers long before your odds rise above 50/50.
Hih Sep 2nd 2010 4:36PM
Which is why you make a pug reserving the mount for yourself but offering 10k gold to the winner of the roll if it does drop.
Kunikenwad! Sep 2nd 2010 5:25PM
Not how statistics works, really. Your chance is still 1% no matter what, but in layman's terms, yeah, it's hard to get :D
Dazaras Sep 2nd 2010 9:45PM
Yes, actually, that is how statistics work. In 52 tries with a 0.1% chance of success each time you have a 5.07% chance of success overall. You are referring to the fact that each individual attempt has a 0.1% chance of success regardless of the number of previous failed attempts, which was not disputed. Please actually learn statistics before you argue with people about statistics, people say that a lot and it really annoys me.
In 693 tries you have a 50% chance of getting the mount.
elphie Sep 3rd 2010 3:20AM
Actually, if the chance of it dropping is 1% for arguements sake, then if you run it five times or one hundred times or one million times it is still only ever a 1% chance that the mount will ever drop. Following your logic, if one was to run it for over twenty years you would be guaranteed to see it, which you are not. Maybe you need to learn about statistics too ;)
Matt Sep 3rd 2010 4:42AM
What elphie wrote is incorrect, as would be obvious to anyone who has taken a serious course in statistics. Artificial and Dazarus are correct, but they haven't supplied their math, which may be the cause for dispute.
First off, the assumptions: 52 raid lockouts per year, .1% chance you'll get the drop on any given run. This .1% is converted to a .001 for use in calculations, as something with a probability of 1 is statistically a guaranteed, or 100%, outcome, and .001 is 1% of 1.
Next, the method. Often in statistics, it is convenient to determine the likelihood of some event occurring within some number of attempts by first determining the likelihood that said event does NOT occur during the attempts, then subtracting that number from 1 (or 100%). Since there are only two possible outcomes here (either the Ashes drop or they don't), we can deduce the probability of an UNsuccessful attempt to be .999 (1 - .001 = .999). From there, we must determine the probability of having 52 successive unsuccessful attempts. This seems to be the area most people have trouble with, so I'll start with only two successive attempts to illustrate the logic behind the math. For each individual attempt, there is a 99.9% chance you will not get the mount. However, over two attempts, there is a .999 * .999 = .998 chance you will not get the mount, or a 1 - .999 * .999 = .002 chance you will. What confuses people is that this does NOT mean that, having failed to get the mount in the first lockout, your odds of getting the mount in your second lockout increase to .002. What it DOES mean is that if you go for two lockouts, you have a .2% chance of getting the mount in that period of time. So next, we'll do the math for 52 lockouts: .999^52 = .9493, and 1 - .9493 = .0507, which translates to 5.07%, exactly as Artificial and Lazaro said. (For those interested in how this works, look up Bernoulli Trials)
For those out there who still doubt the math, I will also demonstrate how this behaves at the extremes for the possible number of trials, zero and infinity.
Chance of getting a drop after zero attempts: 1 - .999^0 = 1 - 1 = 0
Chance of getting a drop after an infinite number of trials: A little more complicated than an equation, as writing some number to the power of infinity is bad mathematics. What this boils down to is a converging series in the form of r^n, where r is a constant less than 1 (say, .999) and n is the number of trials. As n approaches infinity, r^n gets closer and closer to 0. (You can see this for yourself on a calculator, just pick a number between 1 and 0, multiply it with itself, then multiply this solution by the original number, then multiply THAT solution with the original number, etc. it will eventually decay to near zero). Therefore, the probability here roughly equates to 1 - .999^infinity = 1 - 0 = 1.
The fact that the numbers perform so beautifully at the extremes lends credence to the methodology as well, as formulas that don't hold up in extreme cases are usually dismissed as incorrect in mathematics. (Yes, the numbers say doing this raid an infinite number of times is the only way to guarantee yourself a phoenix, but this is clearly is an impossible feat. Them's the breaks.)
elphie Sep 4th 2010 5:27AM
I understand that you are saying that by running it more then you have increased your chances oif seeing it drop but I am saying that the actual drop rate of the mount never changes, so if it was run three hundred times with the mount being a one per cent drop rate, then the chance of seeing it drop out of all runs is three per cent, but the actual drop rate is still one per cent. I obviously didn't explain what I meant very clearly but you could run a million times and the mount will only drop at a one per cent rate each time. The simplified form of 3 out of 300 being one out of 100. And I did not do a serious course in Maths, but the maths teacher sitting next to me did severeal years ago :). So to summarise, yes if it was a one per cent drop and you ran it 500 times you would have increased your chance of seeing it, but it is always going to drop at the same rate every time....one per cent.
feniks9174 Sep 2nd 2010 4:30PM
It bugs me that the Dragonhawk mount, the reward for getting 100 mounts, is only a 280 since chances are that you have at least one 310 mount by the time you reach 100.
If I set aside the time I could probably get my Ironbound in a couple weeks, I just hate pugs . . .
Aldarion Sep 2nd 2010 4:57PM
Hm...
My first 310% mount (the Plagued Proto-Drake of old) was my 110th mount if I recall correctly... Believe, you really don't need them... But you DO need a lot of luck with other drops.
CagedKnight Sep 2nd 2010 5:33PM
Actually, the Albino drake, which is the reward for the 50 mounts achievement, is a 310% speed flyer, iirc.
With Crusader Aura on, I go +356% speed, which is what i get on my Violet Proto-Drake too.
Kuro Sep 2nd 2010 5:46PM
Albino is 280%
http://www.wowhead.com/item=44178/reins-of-the-albino-drake
I lurve my Protos, but I never ride them.... the two-seater is just too tempting... and scalable..
When caty makes em all scalable, I'll go back to my my big blue proto.