Certain mounts and items no longer available in patch 4.0.3

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

10-15-2010 @ 1:50AM

Henry said...

The Zulian Tiger has a 0.8% chance to drop (on wowhead) and the Raptor a 0.9%. Let's be generous and assume they're 1%. There are 8 raid lockout periods between now and December 7th. So the chance that you'll get either a particular one of those is

1-(0.99)^8 = 0.07725 or 7.7%

at best. Consider, though, that 4.0.3 will come out before Dec. 7th and so a couple of those raid lockouts won't be available to farm the mounts.

Have fun!

10-15-2010 @ 2:23AM

Trenan said...

Actually there are 18 more lockouts as ZG's reset is only 3 days so the chances of getting one are 16.5%.

10-15-2010 @ 2:25AM

Ilmyrn said...

Except, of course, that ZG is on a three day lockout.

10-15-2010 @ 3:36AM

Valekai said...

and then there's also the fact that your chance doesn't go up the more you run it, you still only have a 1%(rounding up) chance of getting it, no matter how much math you would like to throw at it.

10-15-2010 @ 3:49AM

Hanak said...

No one said the drop-chance would go up. But over X amount of tries, there's a greater chance that one of them will be lucky than if you just try once. That's NOT the same thing as saying attempt no 5 has a greater chance that attempt no 1, which it obviously don't have.

10-15-2010 @ 7:51AM

Eudeyrn said...

@Valekai: Elementary statistics, my dear Watson.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

10-15-2010 @ 12:42PM

Valekai said...

"so the chances of getting one are 16.5%."

That is like saying you're guaranteed the mount if you run it 100 times.
No matter what your chance to get it it 1%.

10-15-2010 @ 5:19PM

tobinu2 said...

Stop being stubborn and read the Wiki page linked above. Then you will understand...hopefully.

(Geez, schools should require statistics)

10-15-2010 @ 5:21PM

Henry said...

I believe we have a math troll.

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