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12-29-2010 @ 4:01PM
I realize that you wouldn't have the statistics on hand for this question, but at some point in the future could you provide us with the expected value of this card? I'm not a scribe, but I'd be interested to know what the "break-even" price would be. I could snatch them up if somebody starts undervaluing them.
12-29-2010 @ 6:01PM
If the house advantage is 98% and we are still talking 20g per card, then the expected value is 2% of 20g or 40s.My experience with half a dozen or so for the novelty of it and from AH scans of flipped cards people are trying to sell show it to be a little more than that, around 60s. Then again, that's just a showing of those trying to sell flipped cards, not those who vendor them.Another website did a sample of 402 and came with an estimated 1g20s92cSadly, if all the various fortunes were of equal weight, given that there are 58 possible fortunes, then it would be 109g66d55c..These are not hard statistics and should not be taken as fact. These are very much napkin math statistics off the top of my head and based on this article and wowhead. It seems to me that everything I've read shows it to be around 1g. Since the parchment costs half that and I doubt the ink will ever drop to 50s ea, I doubt you will ever see them sell so low.
12-30-2010 @ 11:19AM
Did you click through the link I posted to the raw data? 1500 cards turned, expected value is under 2g.
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