Gold Capped: The effect of mega-blogs on your business

I've been called a lot of things by a lot of people. The reality is that every time I write about a specific business or tip for making gold, hundreds of people will end up trying it out, and if I write something about one of your favorite (or most profitable) businesses, you may find some of these people competing with you.
The number of people participating in any specific market is going to fluctuate over time naturally, but as I've said before, the people who have the most success are the ones who hang in for the long run. That said, these people tend to have a strange relationship with each other. They're competitors and will undercut vigorously, but they tend to spend less effort on their tenacious competition than one would expect.
Competition takes effort
It takes time and sometimes money to effectively compete with someone. Generally, auction house PvP consists of making the other guy lose money or profits while trying to get your own profits as high as possible. It's a trade-off. If you flood the market with low-priced goods, you can increase the overall demand, which may outweigh the lower profit margins -- but there's going to be a much higher time cost, as you have to craft all these extra goods. If, instead of heavy undercutting, you elect to stalk your competitor and ensure you undercut by a small amount as often as possible, increasing the likeliness that you'll get a sale, you're playing a game of chicken that will end up with one person winning the larger slice of pie at the expense of their time. If both players play this game, the more time they spend canceling and relisting, the less they will both make per hour.
When you have the harsh reality of competition glaring at you through your auction UI, you have to make a decision. Do you compete or move on? My answer depends on who I'm fighting.
Fight or flight?
If I'm going up against a new entrant to the market, I might come out of the gates strong, using every dirty trick I can think of to convince them that the market is not worth the trouble. My reasoning is that while nature abhors a vacuum and another person will eventually show up, it takes time for the hydra to spawn another head. So long as the extra-easy profits I make while I'm between serious competitors is more than I spend fighting (in terms of gold lost per hour of fighting, as well as just flat-out lost), it's worth it. It's hard to calculate accurately, so if it seems really close, I make my call based on how much I've been itching to throw my weight around.
Often, however, I concede that the time I would spend fighting off a new entrant is not worth the opportunity cost of all the other markets I never seem to have time to get involved in. Agility is as huge an advantage in the in-game economy as in the real-world economy. I'll turn around on a dime, leave a landmine or two if I can think of anything, keep all my production capacity in place, and go work on something else more profitable. I'll check back in once in a while to see whether it's worth making a comeback. This is almost as much fun as trying to push someone's nose back in, as it forces me to do more research and gives me a nice change in what can become a pretty simple (and boring) routine.
There is one type of person who doesn't get either of these treatments: my long-term competitor. If there's someone else in the market who hasn't gotten aggressive with me and posts just as frequently as I do so that I haven't noticed spikes of unsold product, I'll tend to enter into a completely different mode. This is where we probably never talk yet have the in-game version of a non-aggression treaty in place.
Typically, this type of competitor is content to live with the easiest of profits and relies on addons like Auction Profit Master to post once or twice a day, often without even bothering to see who his competition is. This means that aside from setting up the prices in the addon and creating the production chain, there's basically no extra work involved. The profits per hour can be extremely nice when it takes 3 minutes to repost per day and 5 minutes of crafting a week. If we both do this, we'll split the market based on how much product we're willing to make and how we configure our addons.
Put that pitchfork down!
Everything changes when one of the mega-blogs posts a gold-making method that gets popular. All of a sudden, your sleepy little corner of the auction house has 15 new spittin' mad monopolists, each with more time than the last. There's a finite amount of potential profit in a market, and every person you add to it will reduce your share of it, as well as potentially reduce the overall size by undercutting down to cost and mass producing to try and drive you out.
I'd say I'm sorry, but I'm not. I write about the markets I am involved in, and I go through the same fight you do every time one of my posts is on the main page. There's no magic solution to this; you simply have to be agile and tenacious. Swap to another market until the hype dies down.
If you are really creative, you'll be able to find ways to profit from these influxes. Every market is based on a transformation, and if you can provide one part of that, you can at least get your licks in before you head off into the sunset. So if you see the front page of a mega-blog is all about the money you can make by, for example, smelting old world ore, and you happen to have a bunch of ore stockpiled, post it all on the AH for triple what it was worth in bars and see how much of it you can sell while you're off making bags or something.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
ispy Jan 14th 2011 2:14PM
This just happened to me. I saw the same person was buying all of one particular type of cut rare gem I posted. I was selling at 59g and he started reposting at 75g. Since I had over 200 uncut in my bank, I kept posting 10-20 at a time at 59g. After he had bought about 100 of them I waited an hour and saw he had reposted them all at 75g. Almost 100 gems for a "very long" time period. I cut another 50, listed them at 70g for "very long" and sold about half in 24 hours. Today I log on and notice due to undercuts, all the gems he bought from me are now listed at 55g. I just listed another 50 at 54g and I will continue to undercut him. I'm glad he bought all those gems, but I get more satisfaction in seeing him loose money that I do in making myself money. :D
Pyromelter Jan 14th 2011 2:28PM
I still think that there are time-tested ways to make good gold with more stable but less talked about methods. Tailoring and leatherworking pants enchantments are two ways that you can usually make a solid profit, but you don't see that talked about too much. Selling specialty tailoring cloth (instead of finished products) will also lead you to healthy returns.
I think because tailoring and leatherworking aren't sexy, the gold bloggers don't really touch them all that much.
emberdione Jan 14th 2011 2:52PM
That worked for previous expansions, but in Cata the specialty cloth is currently soulbound, much to our dismay.
And it has a 7 day cooldown. And it takes one of those to make the leg enchants (400g on my server). 4 of those makes a 7k+ belt.
Which one do you think most tailors make?
Lux Jan 14th 2011 5:24PM
On my server those leg enchants are around 1000g due to the fact that is about how much your paying in mat costs. Since the cloth is soul bound and costs so much to make there is not a huge market and the margins are thin. In general their is little profit to be made from leather working, tailoring, or blacksmithing on a large mass market scale due to material requirements.
Sparks Jan 14th 2011 2:28PM
The best thing to do is to see what opportunities open up. If one blog says farm something for super profits, liquidate before the price drop. Then go to one of your standby sales items, let the market flood with the flavor of the week, buy it up at reduced prices while selling items not being farmed by the herd.
It's all cyclical, just learn where in cycle you are and what's coming up.
Junionn Jan 14th 2011 2:32PM
Ah, I remember the good ol' days of farming Mote of Shadow in Oshu Gun in Nagrand, in about an hour I had 20 Primal Shadows and made solid cash from them.
Those were the days... decked out in PvP gear, couldn't obtain PvE gear, so I settled to farming gold :)
Appolus Jan 14th 2011 2:31PM
people are always jumping on the "new big thing" in the JC market on my server. I have diversified my cuts to make sure that I can take advantage of the slowest color of cut on the AH at any given time. I prefer selling 10-20 gems for obscene profit everyday over selling hundreds at small margins. It works out, I post once a day and have about 2k in profit per day for 5 minutes of work.
zed Jan 14th 2011 2:38PM
I really do enjoy these articles. While I have never been rich in WoW gold I have learned a few things, like proper undercutting and how to feel out a market, that has helped me make what I need to keep my characters gemmed and enchanted without worry.
People will eventually go to markets other than what you post. Please keep these up!
Baba Jan 14th 2011 2:57PM
When the saronite shuffle first got circulated.. That was a good time to have a nice big stockpile of ore :D
I often respond pro-actively to these blog posts, rather than getting out of the way when I'm targetted, I specifically move into the areas of the market concerned with supplying the latest money-making craze. You often sell huge amounts of stock at a big mark-up to people looking to strike it rich with the miracle technique
Trilynne Jan 14th 2011 3:06PM
Honest question, Mr. Basil: do you do anything in WoW besides play the AH? Do you PvP, raid, level alts? Just curious, not interesting in bashing you at all. :P
Mordinal Jan 14th 2011 4:34PM
Basil is also a very acomplished hunter ... check out OutDPS if you want to see the hunter side of him :-)
Basil Berntsen Jan 14th 2011 5:51PM
I have a family, a full time job, I run a guild, we raid, I pvp (somewhat badly), and I have two podcasts and a hunter site. I wish I had more time to play the AH, actually.
Trilynne Jan 14th 2011 6:00PM
0.0 Wow! You're a busy dude! xP
Basil Berntsen Jan 14th 2011 6:02PM
Busy doesn't cut it- insane might be a little more accurate. Lucky my wife is very tolerant? Anyways, now you know why I always say I never farm. I simply can't ;)
HerriPaul Jan 14th 2011 3:06PM
I miss The Undermine Journal
QQ
Basil Berntsen Jan 14th 2011 5:56PM
Me too, buddy. Me too.
Ian Jan 14th 2011 3:08PM
Read that as "mega-blocks". Side effect of having 3 young nephews I guess.
Bynes Jan 14th 2011 3:09PM
Please don't take this as an insult Basil, but I love this column in spite of the fact that I've never actually learned anything new from it. I always expect to read some new "trick" and I'm always treated to just plain old common sense. Nothing in this column has ever been truly revealing about any market. And that's why I love it (i think). People crying about trade secrets being given away are just silly. Every week you give valuable info, and if more folks used this common sense approach, we'd see much more market stability. I'd love to see the day when people realize you shouldn't routinely sell items for less than the cost of the mats. Big tip right there! ;)
Fade2gray Jan 14th 2011 5:56PM
lol. Once I figured out that last point I sudenly started making Gold off the AH. Who'da thunk it! Only wish I'd come to that realization before Cata... I might have been able to afford that chopper I always drooled over.
Basil Berntsen Jan 14th 2011 5:55PM
I don't take it as an insult, but you're right about the content. This is really all common sense, but there are a lot of people who don't think in economic terms who will change their behavior based on common sense advice.
I try to avoid "zomg, do [x] for leet gold", because it's short sighted, and won't really work for anyone for long because of the medium it's being broadcast on. I try to teach people to fish instead of throwing fish at them.