Gold Capped: The first player to have a new trade skill

Everyone is going wild about the new meta gems and bracer enchants. They're all clearly better than what people are currently using, and logically, since the demand for these will be high, the recipes (which are completely random world drops) should be very valuable. The question is how valuable.
First off, I would like to say that if something is not going to be widely available, the only way to make it fairly available to tradespeople is to have it randomly drop, and let them pay whoever lucks out for it. It'd be a different story if Blizzard decided to put this on the trainer and let everyone compete, but this method spreads the wealth a little more.
Carpet bomb!
If you're the first person to get one of these very desirable recipes on your realm, you've got the potential to make a lot of money with no competition. There are two general ways to get this money:
- sell a few at a very high profit margin
- sell a lot at a lower profit margin
The reality is that the demand, while strong, is always flexible. People know that it'll just be a couple of days until the AH is flooded with these gems and scrolls, and unless their guild (or arena team or whatever) is so important that they're willing to spend more than they feel it's worth, they can hold out. Most players have an inherent sense of what they're willing to pay for something, based strongly on what they perceive as its value to them and the mats. Also, even if they have the money and a really strong desire to spend it on something that would make them perform better, they have to compare the boost they'll get from this to the boost they'd get from buying a BoE or epic enchant.
In my opinion, the least risky option here is to sell as many of these as you can get your hands on the mats for at just a low enough price that you sell out. The only risk for this scenario is if you set the price too low and sell out, losing potential profits. The risk with selling high is that you might not move enough inventory to make back your investment.
The other benefit to carpet bombing is that you're gobbling up as much of the initial demand surge as you can before you have a lot of competition. This will have the effect of leaving less initial demand for the next person who gets a recipe. This will reduce their profitability per item they sell, as well as ensure that there is a lower total number of items being sold than would have if you hadn't carpet bombed.
So who would pay 30,000g for a recipe?
There is a very simple way to determine the profitability from your your purchase of a (probably very expensive) recipe. Compare the profits you've made over a period of time to the extra money you spent to buy that recipe as early as you did. Here's a basic example:
- You bought the recipe for 30,000 gold.
- You are making an average of 200g profit per (for example) meta gem and have sold 100 of them in the last week.
- At the end of your week, you could have bought the recipe for 12,000g.
If you are considering the much more expensive bracer enchants, you have to remember the mats. All the new recipes require 2 Maelstrom Crystals, which will limit the number of scrolls you can make. Unlike raw meta gems, which can be transmuted all day if you're willing to keep prospecting ore, Maelstrom Crystals are tied to people disenchanting crafted Chaos Orb-based epics or disenchanting unwanted raid drops.
Mmm ... pie
The total market is going to be divided up among all the people capable of selling these rare recipe items. We've discussed the relative merits of increasing the size of the pie while you are one of a small number of people able to produce the items. That said, the demand for the first few weeks is a one-time initial surge in which everyone who has an inferior enchant or meta will want to acquire the new one. Once most people who need them have their first one, the market will level out and be based on the number of helm and bracer upgrades being earned by the endgame population.
This doesn't mean that the market will be small, though. If you want to get an idea of a similar market to compare demand on your realm, check out Ebonsteel Belt Buckles and Dragonscale Leg Armor. This type of market tends to run deep, and the people who keep a market presence for months are the ones who make the largest final profits. In fact, even though the demand and profit are insane for these new recipes now, it's going to be a drop in the bucket compared to the total amount of money made by the end of this expansion. Being the first crafter able to make something and being able to point at a relatively large profit if you succeed in marketing your wares is good for bragging, but it's not really relevant if all you care about is making money (once you factor in the risk).
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Amy Schley Feb 17th 2011 2:38PM
Woot! That's my screenshot. :D
Basil Berntsen Feb 17th 2011 2:54PM
It's the best one I could find :) I wanted something that reflected the racing motif of people vying for the initial demand surge for these products.
Paulio Feb 17th 2011 3:39PM
R.I.P. Mirage Raceway. I miss your dusty expanse.
Drakkenfyre Feb 18th 2011 12:59AM
It's funny that that place is under water now. Lots and lots of water.
Funny in an ironic, sad way. I miss Mirage Raceway, too.
Chokaa Feb 17th 2011 2:44PM
Luckily I obtained oen of the new meta gems through some daily questing. Made me a very happy person, and I'm incredibly glad I didn't just sell the recipe off for 30k. The first day of the patch (the day I got the reverb recipe) I sold about 10 gems for 2k each, and about 50 more for 1k each. Yes, thats 70k in one day from people who are CRAZY!!!
rniemritz Feb 17th 2011 4:23PM
My hats off to you making some serious gold. I still have not got the strength gem cut or any other cut. I know 2 peeps on my server that have the cuts and they are selling the gems for 1k each. The price is starting to come down as not many people are willing to pay that much. I am waiting until I either pick up the recipe or the cost of the cut gem comes down to about 400g.
Mister Bunny Feb 17th 2011 3:06PM
I got the agility metagem recipe as a drop last week. I'm a JC'er but I sold the thing for 35K. It will come down in price and when it does, I'll buy it.
So ty person who paid 35K to be the first one on the block to have this. Me? I'm ok with waiting.
rniemritz Feb 17th 2011 3:52PM
I have the strength enchant recipe and wont make one gold with it. The crystals go for over 3000g on my server...who in the hell is going to pay over 6000g for a +50 strength???
Forreststump Feb 17th 2011 9:01PM
You'd be surprised how many OCD min/maxers are out there...
danawhitaker Feb 17th 2011 4:34PM
I have all three of the enchants and two of the meta-gem designs. Of the enchants, I've had to pay between 300-5000g (300, 1000, and 5000 respectively). I think people were underestimating their value. In the case of the 300g one, I felt so squeamish I tipped the guy selling an extra 700g. The JC ones, since that's my primary profession on my main, I was willing to pay more for, and have picked up two in the 10k range (each). But i have to admit, people don't seem terribly interested in buying them, even when it's free with their mats. In fact, I see very few people looking for anything on trade these days...the joys of a low population server. I don't regret my investment at all, as I'm a recipe completionist, but I miss the days of the more active trade markets on our small server.
I'm assuming that, in the case of my server, demand will actually increase as time goes on, as more people get geared up to be wanting the higher-end enchants and gems.
Abbadon Feb 17th 2011 5:15PM
I have all 6 meta patterns and bracer enchants on my favorite alt (that has both professions). I acquired them within the first few days as I found the patterns on the AH. I watched the AHs of both factions and paid 10-15k for each pattern.
The bracer enchants aren't honestly worth it - not from a profit viewpoint at least. Requiring 2 maelstroms is ridiculous. There's no way you can sell these on the AH at a profit. And even if you advertise in trade, I wouldn't expect a very big tip. I primarily jumped on these so that they would be available to my guild as we're starting to shard more loot these days and maelstroms are starting to roll in for guild enchants.
The money is definitely in the metas. Unfortunately, these patterns dropped way quicker than I would have liked on my server. There were several sellers of each by the 2nd day... Luckily, my competition for Agiles knows how to keep the prices up, and we are still selling those for 1k, but the others that have the Reverb and Burning patterns pushed the price in the ground immediately. Those only go for 300-400. /sigh
Oh well... It's still profit, and I've more than made back the money I spent.
Eric S Feb 17th 2011 6:41PM
I've picked up two of the enchants and one of the meta gem cuts, simply because the only people on my server with the missing recipes don't get the economics of it, and see the recipes as an instant fortune. I kid you not, we've had the same three (now four) AGI enchant recipes in our AH for almost a week, with the prices dropping by about 1K a day. Never mind the fact that the prices are still three times what ANY of the new enchants are going for, they're so focused on undercutting each other by small amounts that they haven't noticed that no one has actually sold the new recipes for what they're asking.
The same is true for the meta gem cuts. Despite the fact that there's enough competition for all three cuts in the AH to drive the prices down to about 500-600G over the cost of the uncut metagem, these people still think that we're going to be able to pay 30K gold now and make a profit out of it. The recipe drops for someone new, and they post it just slightly below what's already there, not realizing that what's there has been there for days and isn't going anywhere at that price.
Eleph Feb 17th 2011 8:41PM
One of my friends had a Cata meta-gem recipe drop for him very early on after Cataclysm dropped. Within the first few days for sure.
He successfully auctioned off that recipe for a cool 50,000g.
Something to think about.
Terraxx Feb 17th 2011 9:20PM
I found the agi meta cut on the AH the first day for 250g. Mass producing and selling at 500g a pop, I've made an easy 60-70k. Poor guy who didn't know what he found.
Peebers Feb 18th 2011 9:09AM
Sad truth, the agi to bracers chant dropped for my lvl81 enchanter. I learned it immediatly cuz I didn't know it was new. Wish I'd sold it cuz I still can't make it at lvl83
andrea Feb 17th 2011 10:20PM
Selling these recipes for large massive amounts is not effective if several people are already posting the cuts. And anyone who buys one for over 15k, when there are already people with it is also silly. This is only OMGAWESOME, when you are the very first few.
On most servers, most of these cut metas have been undercut down to the same price others were selling. You're only advantage then, is less competetion for a bit -- but you certainly will not make 30k back from it anytime soon.
Also, the awesomeness of these cuts are very overstated. For the average player, they'll buy a chaotic for 200g over a burning for 500g. Only a min-maxer would pay more than that, so if you hope to make a fortune, hope you're on a raider heavy server.
The only thing this is "great" for, is someone selling the recipe.
Sally Bowls Feb 18th 2011 2:17AM
I think this article is late unless you are on a tiny server.
Tuesday I was able to buy some burning cut on AH for under 200g and several for 150g from trade. I just checked and the price has risen a bit to 224. TUJ shows any server bigger than mine at or below that price. By now, you certainly won't be making 100g per cut. But if you sell 300 of them over the next month at 50g profit, then perhaps 10k for the pattern is not unreasonable. Now if a couple of dozen people think they are each going to sell hundreds, then the 50g won't hold.
Once you buy the pattern, that is sunk cost so 20g per gem is better than 0g
Your "5000g" feels about right for me.
Another assumption is your time horizon. I.e., will there be a new must get meta in 4.1? Can you still sell any of these in May?
Rajah Feb 18th 2011 2:19AM
"It'd be a different story if Blizzard decided to put this on the trainer and let everyone compete, but this method spreads the wealth a little more."
Your reasoning here is a little fawlty, Basil. Having recipes be rare world drops rather than purchasable from trainers for a nominal fee by every tradesperson above a certain skill level most decidedly does not spread the wealth more, not even by a small amount. Quite the opposite, it concentrates the wealth among the few. Or perhaps you are espousing some kind of trickle-down voodoo economics?
Basil Berntsen Feb 18th 2011 8:08AM
I see what you did thar.
And no, my statement was that the way it is (where random people get a very valuable recpie) spreads the wealth. The recipes are unfarmable, and are more likely to drop for a player of average means than someone who really wants the first recipe and knows how to take advantage of a monopoly.
Dr. Nothing Feb 18th 2011 5:30AM
Picked up the new strength enchant recipe for 3k this morning, really happy I got such a bargain considering what I've heard of some servers prices ^^