Gold Capped: Will epic gems be prospectable from Pyrite Ore?
by Basil Berntsen 
Apr 25th 2011 at 2:00PM
So far in Cataclysm, the best gems we can cut for gear are blue quality. They give 40 core stats, depending on the cut, and are obtained from prospecting Cataclysm level ores. Blizzard will, of course, eventually release epic gems. The question is when and how.
How ...
We've actually had a convenient preview of epic gems. Take a look at this Brilliant Blazejewel that was added to the PTR -- like the Stormjewels in Wrath of the Lich King, it's unique equip. We don't know where it comes from, but my money's on Blizzard's repeating what it did in Wrath and rewarding these from fishing. You'll note that epic gems in Cataclysm appear to have 50 stats, 10 more than the blue-quality gems. Last expansion, we went from 16 stats on a blue to 20 on an epic. It's not just the economy that's inflated this expansion, I suppose.
While these Blazejewels are unique, eventually there will come a time when we can obtain epic gems that we can use in as many sockets as we can afford. The question is how will these be made available? At the end of Wrath, there were a myriad of ways to obtain epic gems:
- Prospecting Titanium Ore
- Creating them with a daily alchemy transmute
- Buying them with honor
- Buying them with Emblems of Heroism
When ...
The Wrath fishing Stormjewels were added in patch 3.1, and here, we see these Blazejewels datamined from the patch 4.1 client. Does this represent the beginning of a whole expansion of copy-and-pasted trade skill design from Wrath? If so, we can expect epic gems to appear in patch 4.2 and be obtainable from very similar sources, as they were in Wrath. Pyrite Ore is the Cataclysm equivalent of Titanium Ore, and right now it prospects into green gems, blue gems, and Volatile Earth. If Blizzard simply adds a chance to get epic gems to the drop table, that will increase the value of Pyrite considerably.
People have been talking about this since the launch of Cataclysm, and it seems that most have elected to stockpile Pyrite just in case. I've stated before that "I am not nearly comfortable enough forecasting Blizzard's trade skill development decisions based on past behavior to risk any serious amount of money on bets one way or another" -- but honestly, all the datamining seems to be indicating that profession design really is being done by simply reusing and renaming systems created in Wrath.
There's been speculation that instead of epic gems coming from Pyrite (which, unlike Titanium, is already relatively valuable because of the Volatile Earths you prospect from it), they may come from a new type of ore. This is possible, of course, but it doesn't feel likely. It would prevent people from feeling as if they're playing the same content again, but we already have three ores. Adding another one would be a serious investment in design time.
Bottom line
I now believe that Blizzard is most likely to make epic gems prospectable from Pyrite. Unless it reduces the drop rate of something else that we can currently prospect from Pyrite, this means that all the people who are stockpiling Pyrite will suddenly see the value of their investments increase -- possibly drastically, depending on how hard it is to get epic gems from the other sources. We'll probably be able to buy them with either justice/honor points (or maybe conquest/valor points), and the price will be the determining factor in the new price for Pyrite Ore.
As for targets, I'm unlucky enough to be on a realm where Pyrite is rarely available for less than 150g per stack. Friends of mine tell me that on other servers, it's as low as 60g a stack some days. Regardless, assuming you don't buy so much ore that you flood the epic gem market out of profitability when you prospect it, you'll be safe buying at almost any price if epics do become prospectable.
Volatile Earth
All this stockpiling has certainly had an effect on the economy that will only get more significant as we approach patch 4.2, whether it brings epic gems or not. Every five ore in a bank somewhere represents one to three Volatile Earth locked away from the open market. You might be able to profit while everyone sits on their stock by prospecting Pyrite now and selling the volatiles when their prices spike. The recent change to the vendor value of green-quality gems won't hurt Pyrite as much as it does the other ores. That said, don't get caught with tons of Volatile Earth (or products made from it) in patch 4.2, as it'll probably get mass-posted on the AH as people start to prospect for epics.
The current balance between supply and demand for Volatile Earth is a little skewed on most realms because of all the stockpilers. Once this stockpile has burned out and the flood of volatiles produced as a byproduct have been absorbed, the eventual price should balance out to slightly less than it is now. Basically, once epics gems are prospectable from pyrite, people will prospect their ore immediately instead of holding it. This will mean a long-term supply increase, but the demand is constant and the long-term supply increase will not match the supply in the first few weeks after people start prospecting their stockpiles.
Betting against gamblers
If epics don't become prospectable from Pyrite at all, the volatiles will not bottom out as low because some of the stockpiles will certainly be smelted and used for Pyrium Bars. Regardless, at some point, all this Pyrite Ore being held in everyone's banks will need to get processed somehow, and that is likely to involve an unsustainable dump of earths onto the AH. This is a prediction that I am certainly willing to bet on, so as soon as I see the lowest buyout for earths hit 20% of what they are now, I'm planning on buying everything I can afford and letting them trickle back out when all the stocked pyrite dries up.
Even if you don't have the risk tolerance to stock pyrite (or someone else is doing a better job at buying than you are), you can profit when epic gems are released by betting against the stockpilers.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped as well as the author's Call to Auction podcast. Do you have questions about selling, reselling and building your financial empire on the auction house? Basil is taking your questions at basil@wowinsider.com.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Daniel Apr 25th 2011 2:18PM
I'd love to see them only drop from the raid instance in 4.2 like back in BT. It's been awhile so I totally can't remember if you were able to prospect also back then and get them but it'd be interesting to see if they would give everyone the run around and just do it that way
Mackenzie Apr 25th 2011 3:44PM
I'm in favor of this but add to them being purchasable with that tier level tokenage...since it'll appease the casuals.
Homeschool Apr 25th 2011 4:31PM
At this stage, given that there are no epic gems available, I'm crossing my fingers for a new JC recipe, either something where jewelcrafters "shatter" a Chaos Orb (like prospecting), or a Prism-type recipe formed of combining rare gems.
Prospecting will just lead to a crash in the Obsidium and Elementium prices as people flood the market with leftovers from Pyrite epic farming.
Argumentativeweasel Apr 25th 2011 2:20PM
Great right up. I'm on the fence about stockpiling these ores. Blizzard could easily throw in a curveball, leaving a lot of people out A LOT of gold.
Argumentativeweasel Apr 25th 2011 2:22PM
Wow.. I hate not being able to edit...
Am I... WRITE?
worgynfreeman Apr 25th 2011 3:06PM
Blizz developers are nothing if not a) overworked and b) prone to duplicate content. I have 3 tabs of pyrite ore right now. I've been buying it for months. Now that it's starting to show up under 100g/stack I'm getting deeper into the market. Prospecting high level ore for gems is simply too elegant a solution for Blizz to ignore based on the relatively few number of gold goblins hoarding it right now.
Once the gems are released, I expect to make back my initial 25K - 50K initial ore investment in the first couple of weeks with everything else being gravy. I have two JC's which have been doing the dailies (and stockpiling the tokens) so that once the gems and epic cuts drop, I will be in place to have every cut ready to be sold.
And if it doesn't pan out the way I hope, oh well, back to grinding Blackened Deviate Delight recipes :)
wutsconflag Apr 25th 2011 3:00PM
"Blackened Deviate Delight recipes"? O.o
seanaperkins Apr 25th 2011 3:04PM
Savory Deviate Delight...was typing fast
DBNM Apr 25th 2011 4:32PM
@ worgynfreeman (nice name btw)
I sure hope you are not on my realm because I have been doing the same thing with my JCs. I would hate to have some strong competition when the market opens up :P
Methuus Apr 25th 2011 7:11PM
However, it's not unheard of for Blizzard to change the way mats are acquired.
For example, Engineers had become accustomed to the floating clouds in Outland and Northrend that they could "mine" to get more elemental mats. But Bliz broke that pattern in Cataclysm and had the extra Engineering elemental mats come from gathering professions (screwing all the Engineers who had a crafting second profession).
Now, I do think that prospecting pyrite will probably be the source of epic gems. But Blizzard's past behavior indicates that it's not a sure thing.
Ravenlock Apr 25th 2011 2:55PM
"You'll note that epic gems in Cataclysm appear to have 50 stats, 10 more than the blue-quality gems. Last expansion, we went from 16 stats on a blue to 20 on an epic. It's not just the economy that's inflated this expansion, I suppose."
The WOTLK epic gems were 25 percent better than their rare counterparts. The Cataclysm epic gems look like they are going to be 25 percent better than their rare counterparts.
How is that inflation?
Pyromelter Apr 25th 2011 3:32PM
See my comment below - 25% inflation is still inflation. The comparison to the previous expansion is a bit dubious, since the rate of inflation is the same. But it's still inflation (just not a rise in the rate of inflation as basil seems to indicate with that statement).
ravenlock.wow Apr 25th 2011 4:19PM
"See my comment below - 25% inflation is still inflation. The comparison to the previous expansion is a bit dubious, since the rate of inflation is the same. But it's still inflation (just not a rise in the rate of inflation as basil seems to indicate with that statement)."
You seem to have a strange definition of inflation that is totally different to anything I've come across.
Epic gems, naturally, provide more benefit than the rare gems from the same expansion. You call that inflation. That's a strange tag to apply to natural progression of the game mechanics. I mean, would you also say that tier sets are inflationary? I know that I and most other people wouldn't.
The difference in percentage terms between epic gems in this expansion is no greater than it was in the last one. That's not inflation, that's maintaining the status quo.
The way in which Basil used the term was poor enough. The way that you're using it is just weird.
Pyromelter Apr 25th 2011 4:29PM
Raven, let's try a thought experiment, and we'll use fictional numbers for simplicity.
Lets say it's the year 2000. A gallon of milk costs 1 dollar. (Hypothetical here people, bear with me.)
Over the course of the year 2000, economic inflation is 10%. At the end of the year, milk costs $1.10.
So now that gallon of milk at the beginning of 2001 is $1.10. Still with me?
Now, let's suppose that in 2001, economic inflation was also 10%. At the end of 2001, that same gallon of milk is $1.21.
You are therefore paying more for that gallon of milk due to inflation. The inflation is still there, the difference is the RATE of inflation is the same.
And if you are still confused by that thought experiment, I suggest you search inflation on wikipedia. It is pretty good at describing it.
DBNM Apr 25th 2011 4:39PM
I think what Pyro is getting at is that even though the difference between epic gems and rare gems is 25% of raw stats for both wotlk and cata gems, the numeric difference for cata gems is 10 stat points between epics and rares instead of wrath's 4 stat point difference. That is an increase of 250% of the former numeric value. So even though the ratios between the two are the same, the absolute values tell a very different story.
Homeschool Apr 25th 2011 4:53PM
The inflation is not in the difference between rare and epic, but in the difference from last expansion to this.
In the last two expansions, stats roughly doubled. According to the pattern, we should have expected rare gems to provide 32 points and epics to provide 40.
The issue came because of Wrath gear escalation. With each tier of raiding having (at least) two gear levels (10 and 25), stats increased more rapidly than they had previously, with item levels skyrocketing. That left them with stats that were so high, that their previous pattern (going double the stats of the gear from the corresponding tier of the previous expansion) would have left Cataclysm gear as weak (or weaker) than heroic ICC25 gear.
TL,DR: 40-to-50 is not the inflation; 16-to-40 / 20-to-50 is the inflation. We're 150% higher instead of 100% like we would have expected.
Basil Berntsen Apr 25th 2011 10:04PM
Sorry I wasn't here to respond to this while you guys were still arguing, but yeah, what Homeschool said :)
Avan Apr 25th 2011 2:55PM
I've suspected that Pyrite is going to prospect into epic gems, simply because otherwise Blizzard would have to introduce a new ore and then have recipes that use that ore. It would be a bit of a mess having to juggle Elementium, Hardened Elementium, Pyrium, and Truegold on top of the hypothetical ore. And then the ore would have to require 525 (or maybe even 530, requiring miners to carry around gloves with +5 mining), and we already have an ore that requires 525.
I've been stocking up on Pyrite ore expecting them to be prospectable into epic gems. I'm currently sitting on 37 stacks of the stuff. (Also known as far too many hours doing mining runs through TH.)
That said, this part of the article bothers me:
"You'll note that epic gems in Cataclysm appear to have 50 stats, 10 more than the blue-quality gems. Last expansion, we went from 16 stats on a blue to 20 on an epic. It's not just the economy that's inflated this expansion, I suppose."
40 to 50 is a 25% increase. 16 to 20 is a 25% increase. There is no inflation of stats here.
Pyromelter Apr 25th 2011 3:29PM
25% increase is inflation by 25%.
so you, and the above commenter... you're saying something factually wrong. The stats are still being inflated. They just aren't being inflated at a higher rate than before. This is equivalent inflation. You can also have high inflation (like, say the stats were boosted from 40 to 60, that would be increased inflation), or you can have disinflation, where there is inflation but at a lower ran than before (like if the stats went from 40 to 45).
It's still all inflation however. I do agree that the premise of what basil was saying wasn't right, because he was making it seem like the inflation was higher, when in reality, it's equivalent inflation.
Goodk4t Apr 25th 2011 4:56PM
"It's not just the economy that's inflated this expansion, I suppose."
This clearly states that according to the author, not only the economy inflated but the stats in this expasion inflated as well. That's why people pointed out that regardless the fact the cataclysm epic gems have 150% higher stats than the Wrath gems, technically, it's not inflation since it's a 25% gain from the rare gems, same as Wrath.
Yes, your comment about "25% increase is inflation by 25%". But in this context, that's not what inflation mean, which turns both your comments complete garbage. To read words and to comprehend a text is not the same. You obviously only read words...