World of Warcraft dips to a mere 11.4 million subscribers
by Alex Ziebart 
May 9th 2011 at 7:00PM
During the call, CEO of Blizzard Entertainment Mike Morhaime pointed out that World of Warcraft had fallen again to pre-Cataclysm subscriber levels -- 11.4 million subscribers at the end of March, down from its peak of 12 million. Subscriber levels do not decline linearly, he pointed out, stating that they fluctuate based on how quickly players consume and complete content. Players are consuming Cataclysm's content faster than any expansion before it, so subscriber levels started to drop off more quickly than they have previously.
11.4 million subscribers still puts World of Warcraft quite far above and beyond any of its competition, and it should be noted that the numbers stated in the call came during a slow point in the expansion -- Cataclysm launched in early December, putting the end of March a good four months out. You can only expect players to consume the same content for so long, and four months is a pretty long time. If this were a single-player game and not an MMO, no developer could reasonably expect a player to consume the same content for four months. That's one-third of a year with no additions to the game, and we've only just received a content patch at the end of April. It's actually surprising to me personally that four months is faster than previous expansions.
The month of March may also have just been a bad month to poll, as competition such as RIFT launched that month. Even if the majority of the players that left World of Warcraft for RIFT eventually find their way back, the damage has been done for the month of March.
Though subscribers numbers have fallen back down to 11.4 million, overall profit has risen so far this year -- the details of which you can find in the official press release.
Filed under: News items
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 12)
Abbadon May 9th 2011 7:03PM
Of course the profit levels have risen... I'm sure Blizz is swimming in it from all the micro-transactions, especially race changing to Goblin and Worgen.
Omacron May 9th 2011 7:10PM
Probably also has something to do with being relaunched in China
Elmouth May 10th 2011 12:43AM
It's not just about content, it's about how they handled the expansino changes to healing and heroics, they made the game less accessible so big surprise, there's less people interested.
Me May 10th 2011 1:34AM
A 5% decrease after years of double digit increases would not worry me. Now if a quarterly downward trend continues, then it will become an issue. That being said, I'm sure blizzard has been putting a lot of cash in their mattress for when they need it.
Boz May 10th 2011 10:27AM
Race changing goblin to worgen? That's the least of it: Faction changes, server transfers, the remote auction house/guild chat, star ponies, mini pets... Blizzard has done an excellent job of offering ancillary services to increase revenues. Profit has certainly not been a problem, especially on a per account basis. Even if per account profit is up, Blizzard needs subscribers to be able to take advantage of those services.
The problem is that a 5% decline on a subscription base of its size is worrisome considering our proximity to the latest expansion. Subscription numbers peaked at the END of Wrath of the Lich King. If anything a new expansion with tons of content, revamped zones, upcoming raids, and new races should have increased the subscriber base; instead we've seen the opposite effect.
There are any number of possible reasons; longer queue times, more difficult content (dungeons requiring intelligent crowd control), repetitive content (instead of making a +10 gem I make a +30 gem: Woo-hoo!), class changes that have upset players, unbalanced PvP, or any combination of the aforementioned or things I haven't considered. Heck, it's the first time subscriber levels have fallen: It could even be a statistical outlier! Finding out the real reason, though, should be of top priority to Blizzard.
Personally I'm on break from the game itself right now as I focus on my family, job, and school (though I like to keep up on developments, hence, here I am). As the current subscriber base ages I've noted that many of my peers fall into a similar category.
Nathanael May 10th 2011 3:01PM
Also, there's the possibility that Cataclysm was not a well thought out expansion. Several factors which created the surge in Wrath were disregarded in favor of trying something new.
A lot of people INSIST that Cata is the most wonderful thing since sliced bread, almost because if it's not then their source of happy-time will crumble. It's not.
I lived for Wrath - loved it - right through to the end. Bringing in a whole continent with its own personality and feel was brilliant and felt very new and refreshing. But Cata: Tweaking old content and mixing the zones in with old zones needed to be done, but as an expansion it failed. Launch sales numbers do not equal a successful expansion. It left the player base feeling aimless and starved. 11.4 represents a lot of accounts left subbed, but not active, and endgame grinders.
Let's call a spade a spade. You get no bonus points for gushing all over them.
wutsconflag May 9th 2011 7:04PM
OH NOEZ!!! THE END IS NIGH!!! WOW IS DYING!!!
*cough*
Riiiight...
;)
Pumabackup May 10th 2011 12:04AM
haha, ya. some people i work with have decided to play rift, one of whom especially hates wow for some reason. every couple of weeks he'll brag to me about how "wow's numbers are falling" and "wow's going to die soon just like everquest and final fantasy." but really, a dip from 12m to 11.4m??? while it is still a rather significant revenue loss for blizz, it's still way and beyond the level of subscribers for any other game out there. i don't see blizz giving up their crown to anyone for many years to come.
CrimsonKing May 10th 2011 2:04AM
@Pumabackup: Your coworker has a highly misguided view on things that are dying. Everquest and Final Fantasy are still running. Heck even Ultima Online all the way from 1997 is still chugging along. I don't think WoW will be going anywhere for a long time.
BB Crisp May 9th 2011 7:05PM
12 million to 11.4 million is still a 5% drop in paid subscriptions. That's by no means a death knell and is more than likely a statistical outlier for the reasons you mentioned, but it's still a large enough chunk that investors will be annoyed by the news.
Sarama May 9th 2011 7:21PM
It's also a big enough drop where Blizzard is trying to do something about it...
http://bashmyfacein.com/2011/05/06/free-game-time/
Kunikenwad! May 9th 2011 7:43PM
You're right; in the real world a 5% drop in paid subs for a 6 year old game doesn't sound like much to us, but in the business world, a 5% drop in userbase that could possibly affect up to $9mil of revenue per month is a very big deal (that's assuming everyone pays $15/mo, which is almost a statistical impossibility). So, that could be up to $9 million per month at risk and it may be trending downward (or upward) ... we don't really know. And to an investor, nothing is worse than *not knowing.* So yeah, this is a pretty big deal for the business folks, but Blizzard can point to new revenue streams in pets, mounts, race- and faction-changes to cushion the blow.
But for the rest of us, it's business as usual. Well, if you're not totally fascinated by financial analysis.
Glaras May 9th 2011 7:52PM
I work for a SaaS-model application provider in the healthcare industry. If we saw a 5% drop in our customer base, we would be *damned worried*.
Blacksen May 9th 2011 8:53PM
Just to take a quick look here:
Heroic Instances at launch:
BC - 15
WotlK - 11
Cata - 9
Raid bosses at launch:
BC - 24
WotLK - 18
Cata - 14
It seems that as Blizzard gets more and more subscribers, they release less and less content. How long did they seriously think this would keep up?
Cataclysm shortchanges you on content. What are we really getting in return for $15 (or more) every month?
Wulfkin May 9th 2011 9:14PM
Blacksen, do the same math with number of quests added per expansion; or indeed use any other measure of actual *content* added, rather than mere dungeons. You will find that you are talking out of your arse.
KG May 9th 2011 9:17PM
I also got a free week of game time. Even the incentives to Tank Heroics aren't enough for me to use the LFD Random Heroic feature. I am on my third day and already ready finding the game tedious.
I my wait for Firelands, the armor looks cool.
FlameFlash May 9th 2011 9:38PM
@Wolfkin
The thing is, how many players, at 85, are going back and doing all those quests?
I'm not.
Almost all the toons I'll ever play alliance side are above 40. That's a big chunk of quests I'll never see unless I'm as crazy as Sacco and roll up dozens of the same class... and I just don't see a lot of people out there doing that.
Luftwaffles May 9th 2011 9:31PM
@Blacksen
Yes but the quality of the zones has gone up drastically, as have the dungeons themselves. Blizz made new zones for leveling, redid ALL of the vanilla content as well, and your going to bitch because they didn't crank out 15 sub-par dungeons instead of 9 good ones? Someones lost their grip on reality...
Avan May 9th 2011 9:33PM
@Wulfkin:
It can be assumed that it's safe to say that most people just care about end game content. The sheer number of quests added in Cata are mostly from the revamp of the classic content, which is not going to be interesting to most people. Not unless someone is leveling an alt, anyways; Even then, it's highly likely they're only going to see a fraction of that content as they just level through dungeons, questing during the queue times.
All that to say, "he isn't really talking out of his ass."
jfofla May 9th 2011 10:30PM
That 5% is Larger than the entire player base of RIFT