Gold Capped: Buy low, sell long
Every week, WoW Insider brings you Gold Capped, in which Basil "Euripides" Berntsen aims to show you how to make money on the auction house. Email Basil with your questions, comments, or hate mail!
I've often downplayed the "buy low, sell high" aspect of the money-making game, instead focusing on using trade skills to create value and profits. There is, however, a lot to be said for brokerage. It can be much riskier but has a very good profit per hour when you win your bets. Unlike a game of cards, though, the odds are not stacked against you.
There's one key fact that can stack the odds of brokerage in your favor: People charge less for items in a trade window than others would pay on the auction house. The best strategy to take advantage of this is to buy low and sell long. Why long instead of high? They actually amount to the same thing, but the key here is that instead of immediately trying to find some buyer who will put more money into a trade window than you, you list the product on the auction house.
The auction house is the great differentiator between people looking to make a quick sale and those willing to wait for a high margin. If you see someone selling something in trade chat, chances are that no matter how much they're asking for, they're expecting a low-ball offer and are willing to sell somewhere in the middle. So what is it about the AH that makes stuff sell for more?
The long sale
More people will see an auction than a trade ad, which means you're exposed to a lot more potential buyers. The longer your auction stays up, the more people it's seen by. Trade ads suffer from a long list of factors that make them less likely to reach your intended audience, including the fact that buyers have to be in a city reading trade chat exactly when you happen to be advertising your item.
Auctions suffer from the fact that people have to search for them to see them, but you can add a bit of trade barking about the existence of your auction if you want to increase the number of people seeing your auction.
The more people who see your auction, the more likely one of them is to buy it, assuming the price is reasonable in the eye of the buyer. This means:
I've been making upwards of 30% profit flipping the quest reward items from the Shadowmourne quests. It's not quick money, but I am willing to keep my money tied up for months, so my exposure to potential buyers is much higher. I've bought at a good discount from someone in trade willing to let a higher price pass by in order to get his money immediately, and I am waiting out the market for the right people to search my auctions and decide to splurge.
Buying off trade and selling in the AH is a tactic that works for a lot of types of items, especially things with low and fixed supply. Things that aren't easily farmable, specifically -- for example, the Shadowmourne vanity items, Books of Glyph Mastery, and mats for BOA enchants from old content. These items all retain their demand well over time, and the more time you spend listing an auction, the higher you can sell it for.
Time-bomb deals
What about items with an expiration date? Trying to sell valor point bracers for too much, for example, can be like playing hot potato with a hand grenade. Hold them too long (for whatever reason) and you'll lose. The reason is that the number of people willing to pay, for example, 20k for bracers the first week is quite low, and they probably all get them from the first few VP farmers. Every week that passes leads to more people willing to sell their VP, which means that the prices plummet sharply.
If you were holding onto a pair of bracers from week 1 of a new patch, hoping for that extra 2000g profit, you can instead end up costing yourself 2000g or more by not finding a buyer in time for the VP cap reset every Tuesday.
So, how can you make money with time bomb goods? The main method is to limit your exposure to the market to items where you can get an extra good deal on the buy side, and simply sell for a normal price and move it quickly. Also, if the item is rare, try to bark in trade about it. Don't spam, as you'll annoy people who otherwise might have considered buying, but linking your item and its price in trade can be a good way to increase the number of people checking it out. I'll often offer a 5% discount to people who give me time to cancel the auction and trade it to them manually, saving the AH cut.
If the deadline for the next batch of items comes up and you're worried that the price will go below what you paid for it, consider a fire sale and offer it at or near what you paid for it. Just so long as you profit from more time bomb flips than you lose, you'll end up ahead.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped as well as the author's Call to Auction podcast. Do you have questions about selling, reselling and building your financial empire on the auction house? Basil is taking your questions at basil@wowinsider.com.
I've often downplayed the "buy low, sell high" aspect of the money-making game, instead focusing on using trade skills to create value and profits. There is, however, a lot to be said for brokerage. It can be much riskier but has a very good profit per hour when you win your bets. Unlike a game of cards, though, the odds are not stacked against you.
There's one key fact that can stack the odds of brokerage in your favor: People charge less for items in a trade window than others would pay on the auction house. The best strategy to take advantage of this is to buy low and sell long. Why long instead of high? They actually amount to the same thing, but the key here is that instead of immediately trying to find some buyer who will put more money into a trade window than you, you list the product on the auction house.
The auction house is the great differentiator between people looking to make a quick sale and those willing to wait for a high margin. If you see someone selling something in trade chat, chances are that no matter how much they're asking for, they're expecting a low-ball offer and are willing to sell somewhere in the middle. So what is it about the AH that makes stuff sell for more?
The long sale
More people will see an auction than a trade ad, which means you're exposed to a lot more potential buyers. The longer your auction stays up, the more people it's seen by. Trade ads suffer from a long list of factors that make them less likely to reach your intended audience, including the fact that buyers have to be in a city reading trade chat exactly when you happen to be advertising your item.
Auctions suffer from the fact that people have to search for them to see them, but you can add a bit of trade barking about the existence of your auction if you want to increase the number of people seeing your auction.
The more people who see your auction, the more likely one of them is to buy it, assuming the price is reasonable in the eye of the buyer. This means:
- There are no other cheaper auctions.
- They have seen the item assigned a value in the same ballpark as you're charging.
I've been making upwards of 30% profit flipping the quest reward items from the Shadowmourne quests. It's not quick money, but I am willing to keep my money tied up for months, so my exposure to potential buyers is much higher. I've bought at a good discount from someone in trade willing to let a higher price pass by in order to get his money immediately, and I am waiting out the market for the right people to search my auctions and decide to splurge.
Buying off trade and selling in the AH is a tactic that works for a lot of types of items, especially things with low and fixed supply. Things that aren't easily farmable, specifically -- for example, the Shadowmourne vanity items, Books of Glyph Mastery, and mats for BOA enchants from old content. These items all retain their demand well over time, and the more time you spend listing an auction, the higher you can sell it for.
Time-bomb deals
What about items with an expiration date? Trying to sell valor point bracers for too much, for example, can be like playing hot potato with a hand grenade. Hold them too long (for whatever reason) and you'll lose. The reason is that the number of people willing to pay, for example, 20k for bracers the first week is quite low, and they probably all get them from the first few VP farmers. Every week that passes leads to more people willing to sell their VP, which means that the prices plummet sharply.
If you were holding onto a pair of bracers from week 1 of a new patch, hoping for that extra 2000g profit, you can instead end up costing yourself 2000g or more by not finding a buyer in time for the VP cap reset every Tuesday.
So, how can you make money with time bomb goods? The main method is to limit your exposure to the market to items where you can get an extra good deal on the buy side, and simply sell for a normal price and move it quickly. Also, if the item is rare, try to bark in trade about it. Don't spam, as you'll annoy people who otherwise might have considered buying, but linking your item and its price in trade can be a good way to increase the number of people checking it out. I'll often offer a 5% discount to people who give me time to cancel the auction and trade it to them manually, saving the AH cut.
If the deadline for the next batch of items comes up and you're worried that the price will go below what you paid for it, consider a fire sale and offer it at or near what you paid for it. Just so long as you profit from more time bomb flips than you lose, you'll end up ahead.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped







Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
gobuywow Jul 28th 2011 8:05PM
Sell long? How long should be ok? 48 hours or 1-2 weeks?
restodr00d Jul 28th 2011 8:15PM
good question indeed!
Jack Spicer Jul 28th 2011 8:31PM
It depends!
gewalt Jul 28th 2011 9:10PM
months is fine actually. you can sell as long as you have patience for it. just keep in mind with every investment that your liquid asset (cash) is being frozen for an indeterminate amount of time. You still have an asset, and it holds its value, its just not readily spendable. Invest heavily in good deals that hold that value, dont invest in anything that depreciates rapidly.
Revynn Jul 28th 2011 9:17PM
Its basically up to you. How long are you willing to wait for the extra profit?
Basil Berntsen Jul 28th 2011 11:13PM
Jack, gewalt, and Revynn have the best answer for you. The longer you're willing to wait, the more likely you are to sell something at a higher price. Still, if there's always someone selling cheaper than you, no amount of time will help.
Cyno01 Jul 29th 2011 12:13AM
I craft the alliance enchanting pets (lamp) and trade them 1:1 in horde /2 for the lanterns, then sell the lanterns on the alliance AH. Its a very nice profit considering the mats cost me nothing nowadays from running heroics, but i only sell one every week or two, so i dont do a ton at a time. 5 will usually last me 2 months. Its a long term strategy, not steady income though.
Also buying pyrite ore whenever it drops below 5g ea and hoarding tokens on my JC. Well see how that works out in a patch or two...
JohnMcClane Jul 28th 2011 9:41PM
A while back I had an interesting event similar to what you're discussing in this article.
I'm on an extremely low-pop server and have relatively low competition on the cut and uncut gem market, other than a single other player. We competed quite strongly, driving the prices down to near our profit margins but never to the point of underselling our stock. We also competed for the raw materials we used, waiting for stock to come available at a low price and seeing who could ninja it before the other.
Needless to say, it was quite fun and occasionally infuriating.
About a month back, however, my competitor messaged me in-game and told me that he was leaving the server for greener pastures elsewhere, and offered to sell me his entire stock of gems before he left. My funds at the time were pretty low, only 15K gold, and he was getting offers of more than 20K from others trying to buy into the market.
We dickered for about an hour over prices and amounts and such, until I got extremely tired of the whole process and suggested an alternative.
I would give him my 15K gold as seed money (i was anticipating plenty more incoming from the auctions I had posted at the time) on the proviso that he take his entire supply of gems with him to his new server.
Obviously, he agreed to these terms, and offered to RealId each other so we could keep in contact when he changed servers.
I've had people tell me that this was a foolish move, but I believe my logic and my subsequent success to be unassailable.
In taking his gems and raw mats with him when he switched servers, he left a sizeable hole in the market, a hole I was ready and able to fill with my extensive stock of both gems and ore, as a result prices on all gems rose by about 40%, increasing my profits around 110% across the board. With my main competition gone, I've been vigilant in my control of the ore market, and maintained a deathgrip on the gem market as a whole. Profits have never been higher. Following my 15K outlay, I've made more than 80K actual profit in just under a month.
gewalt Jul 28th 2011 9:58PM
I spend about 8k every single day buying ore. I cant even imagine just how low pop your server is if 15k in assets is considered a big deal.
Basil Berntsen Jul 28th 2011 11:12PM
I think that auctioneers tend to personalize the AH too much. You're not competing with a competitor, you're competing with the hole in the market they work in. At best, you bought yourself as much time as it takes for someone else to fill the hole. I don't bother tracking my competitors, I track supply and demand, and follow the gaps.
I certainly like talking shop with other auctioneers, but never get upset when a friend undercuts me. I don't see their names when I post my stock either ;)
quickshiv Jul 29th 2011 10:37AM
I dominate the glyph market my server which is a low pop, so I know where you are coming from. I think Basil has a valid point to some extent. You definitely want to be as fluid as you can but crafting addons like TSM basically do that for you in a market like cut gems and glyphs. I use a 0 sum inventory system which means I craft the same amount of items as my post cap. I craft glyphs about four times a week but I craft ink once a week. I have enough ink on hand for the entire week but since I don't stockpile glyphs I'm only crafting the ones that sell. In this way I am filling gaps.
The point where I think Basil is wrong is not knowing your competitors. On a high pop server it is probably impossible to know all your competition but on a low pop server where there are only 2-3 major players it makes sense to know your competition.
Once again on my low pop server there are 3 people that are somewhat serious glyph posters. They don't post all of the glyphs but they all post daily. All people have play schedules and humans are creatures of habit. If you don't believe me go to the undermine journal and look yourself up. Look at the heat map and you will find a pattern in your AH activity. This is what you should be doing to your competition. My main completion posts at 9pm every night so I post at 9:30. I have a person that posts at 7 am but I have found that even if I post right after that person I don't get many sales until 4:00 so I don't bother re-posting in the morning. My 3rd competition posts at 11:00 am so if I am home I will post after 11:00 but usually I just wait until I get home from work.
The point is I know when my competition posts and i know when the majority of purchasing is going on. I make sure my items are the lowest when it matters.
Elwoods Jul 29th 2011 6:29AM
My own recent example of buy low/sell long happened with Truegold.
Well before 4.2 I stated to use my transmute CD every day on truegold amassing around 3 stacks before 4.2.
When the patch hit Truegold didnt go up as people were thinking and a lot of people started to dump their stacks, prices went from 500g down to around 325g on my server.
Here I started buying up stacks of the stuff at around this price and kept until the first Blacksmiths unlocked the new weapons.
In the first 2 days after this I have sold out my stocks at 650g+ making in the region of 150k in profit.
My only wish is I had bought more!!
Basil Berntsen Jul 29th 2011 8:38AM
Undercutting by more than a copper is what turns the competition from who can be logged in the most to who has the best cost. I undercut as much as I need to to make my sale in the timeframe I've targeted.
Zamboni Jul 29th 2011 12:41PM
A one-copper undercut merely hands the market over to the other guy after he cancels and relists. I'll start with a small undercut, but my undercut gets larger with each round. Camping my auctions means the price drops like a rock. A few days or weeks with the market sitting down at vendor prices will usually get even the cockiest goblin to back off.
It's called "learning to share".
spamofchaz Jul 29th 2011 2:46PM
While I do keep an eye on trade sales, I get most of my 'buy lows' from the AH itself. I have my snatch list set to most trade goods (the leathers, dusts, essences, cloths, etc.) at ~50% the 'normal' price (the100% price according to auctioneer). I get a consistent supply of goods that I can repost at the higher price. Doing this gives me a steady income and keeps the prices stable.
Even better, this helps me take advantage of extreme price drops (typically caused by bots). This lets me stock up on various products and sell them back over time.
Kaylin Jul 29th 2011 2:58PM
Please continue doing this and encourage others to as well. You provide a valuable service to the community by keeping commodities available in times of scarcity for those willing to pay the price.
Kaylin Jul 29th 2011 2:57PM
This is an amazing article. In addition to to vanity items, try it with engineering materials if you're an engineer. (actually, very cheap raw materials works well, buy in bulk sell at a premium) The materials for the pets and mounts, while fairly cheap, are not worth farming and certainly not available in reasonable quantities. Buy buying very cheap materials when they're available, even if you don't need them yet, you'll be able to sell engineering crafts when the others have run out of their stock, and sell them for big money.
Hell, if it fails, you can always resell the materials for more than what you bought them for. I recently purchased 600 fel iron ore for 16g/stack. If I don't use it all in flying machines, I can just post it for 80g/stack in smaller chunks so I don't flood the market.
gewalt Jul 29th 2011 4:20PM
I have never, and will never buy an item that is only 1c less than another. I will always buy the one that is 1c more. why? because a 1c undercut is an insult.
sr.mckay Jul 29th 2011 7:07PM
Well said, Quickshiv, and thanks for the tip about using the Undermine Journal to find the posting habits of your competition, the thought hadn't occurred to me.
In the past I just kept track of how many sales I would get posting at particular times and used that to find a sweet spot.
Lohr Jul 29th 2011 9:18PM
This article is incredibly off base, because you are ignoring the effects of TIME in your return calculation. Getting 30% in three months, is far inferior to getting 5% weekly. (To your point, buying from people barking in trade, and flipping on the AH is a good way to make money, the LONG SALE aspect of it is 100% wrong.)
You are asking people to tie up significant portions of your capital in low return investments (aka, the ICC vanity items) which could instead be applied to investments that RETURN less, but YIELD more, and all anyone should care about is yield.
Never confuse return for yield, and it appears you have done so.
For the non-math inclined, picture this. You buy a classic car today for 50,000, and in twenty years sell it for 100,000. You are doubling your money, but it took twenty years to do it. This is what the author of the article is recommending. Buying something with a BIG return, that takes a long time to flip. (Bear this in mind, now. Invested 50k, sold for 100k in 20 years...profit 50k)
Or each year, you could instead buy 50 items worth 1,000, and sell them all for 1,100. You're only making a modest 10% profit on the items, as opposed to doubling them, but if you do it consistently over the same 20 year timespan, your profits more than double. (100g profit x 50 = 5500/year x 20 years = 110,000 profit.
P.S. I am completely ignoring the compounding effect, because at the end of Week 1, you actually have 55,000. So next week, you'd be buying 55 items worth 1,000, to flip for 1,100. And the next week, so on. Meanwhile, your ICC vanity item collects dust. It is the difference between a stock that pays dividends, and one that does not. If I were to add compounding to the calculations, I blow the 'Long Sale' out of the water by an even bigger margin than I just did.