Gold Capped: How the heck do you price a Chaos Orb?

Every week, WoW Insider brings you Gold Capped, in which Fox Van Allen and Basil "Euripides" Berntsen aim to show you how to make money on the auction house. Feed Fox's ego by emailing him or tweeting him at @foxvanallen.
We're eight months deep into the current expansion, and still, Chaos Orbs remain bind on pickup items available only by running dailies. You can't buy them with valor points. You can't buy them on the auction house. You can't hand them from one player to another.
That creates a challenge for someone who's using a trade skill to make an epic piece of gear for someone else. There's no quick and simple way to find the value of a Chaos Orb, but for sure, they do have a definite value. And to get the most money out of your profession, you need to know exactly what that value is.
Rule #1: Chaos Orbs are not created equal
We've all seen the question roll across trade chat at one point or another: "What's a Chaos Orb worth?" It'll probably get a few people offering pricing advice, but the question is deceptive. There's no one value of a Chaos Orb. The value of a Chaos Orb depends on what profession you're going to use it in.
Counterintuitive? Maybe. But it's absolutely true.
Consider, for a moment, how the Chaos Orb market would work if they were liquid assets -- that is, if they weren't bind on pickup. A tailor who wins a Chaos Orb in a heroic now has two options: He can either use that Orb (plus four others) to create Dreamcloth via Dream of Destruction, or he can just head to the auction house and sell it to someone else. It becomes a simple economic decision; tailors generally don't put much value on Chaos Orbs because they can make Dreamcloth via other routes, so most would sell it to a leatherworker, blacksmith, or engineer, who have no other option but to use Chaos Orbs to create epics. The market would quickly establish a price for Chaos Orbs. It'd become uniform across all professions.
But that's not how the Chaos Orb market works. A leatherworker who has a Chaos Orb can't sell it to a blacksmith or engineer. He has to use it for his own recipes. There's absolutely no competition between professions for these (save, of course, the need roll in heroics!); the only pricing competition is between a particular leatherworker and every other leatherworker of the same faction. There will be a different level of supply for that particular profession, and thus, a different price.
Until Chaos Orbs become unbound, there are four distinct types: the tailor's Chaos Orb, the leatherworker's Chaos Orb, the blacksmith's Chaos Orb, and the engineer's Chaos Orb. Each will have its own distinct value on your server.
Obviously, the value of a Chaos Orb is going to differ from server to server. That being said, the relative values are usually the same across all servers: Chaos Orbs are generally worth the most to a blacksmiths and leatherworkers; they're worth less to engineers; and they're worth the least to tailors. (After all, for tailors, five Chaos Orbs have pretty much the same value as 30 lousy Volatile Life.)
Calculating the value
Let's consider a new scenario now. You're a blacksmith, and someone's come up to you and asked you to make Lightforged Elementium Hammer. He already has the eight pieces of Truegold and the 30 Volatile Water; you have the five necessary Chaos Orbs on hand. How do you come up with a fee for making the Hammer that's acceptable for both parties?Solving this mystery isn't rocket science. It's algebra. Literally. See, we have a basic equation:
8 Truegold + 30 Volatile Water + 5 Chaos Orbs = 1 Lightforged Elementium Hammer
We can easily figure out the value of the eight Truegold, 30 Volatile Water, and Hammer by heading to The Undermine Journal (or for you folks on EU servers, by heading to the auction house). We need only search for the Lightforged Elementium Hammer, scroll down to the Component Parts section, and see what the non-Orb materials are worth. As of yesterday (July 31, 2011), the Hammer was selling for 12,500g; the non-Orb materials were selling for about 5,363g.
Calculating the value of the Chaos Orbs is then simple math -- 12,500g minus 5,363g equals 7,137g. That's pretty spectacular -- win a roll at the end of a heroic, and you've just scored a 1,427g item.
Before you go selling those orbs for 7,137 gold, though, do a quick check of the other blacksmithing items that require Chaos Orbs and make sure that value isn't out of line. Check how much the five Chaos Orbs are worth if you're making a Masterwork Elementium Spellblade. See how much they're worth if you're making Pyrium Spellward. Check i359 items, i365 items, and i378 items. And this is the most important point of all -- if your second profession on that character is another crafting profession that uses Chaos Orbs, see what they're worth for that profession. You don't want to sell a Chaos Orb for 500g if you can sell it for 1,000g crafting something else.
From there, it's all about haggling. I recommend trying to sell those Orbs a little higher than their actual value if you can, but ultimately, you should be comfortable selling the Orbs at a slight discount. Remember, if you were selling that Lightforged Elementium Hammer for 12,500g on the auction house, the AH would get a 625g commission. If you wind up negotiating a price of 7,000 gold for the five, you both win.
Should you sell Chaos Orbs?
Any time you start talking about crafting items over trade, you'll run into some controversy from the gold-making set. "Don't do it," they cry!
"They're taking advantage of you for a lousy tip!"
"You have to factor in all the work you put in to grind Molten Front dailies to get those blacksmithing plans!"
Don't listen to them. It's all nonsense.
When you're offering your services over trade chat, you've got the power to negotiate a fair price for your effort. Consider how much you could make crafting that particular item and selling it on the auction house, and then price your efforts based on the profit margin. Remember, the auction house is, for the most part, efficient -- it already prices in the fact that the seller had to grind dailies or pay for the necessary plans/pattern.
If Chaos Orbs are worth 1,000 gold each by crafting gear and selling it on the auction house, then there's no reason why you should turn down the opportunity to sell them for a similar price over trade.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Philster043 Aug 1st 2011 7:09PM
Very interesting!.
My two "mains" are a tailor/enchanter and a skinner/leatherworker. I wasn't sure what to make of the Chaos Orbs but now I know. Thanks!
Samuel Aug 1st 2011 7:10PM
An orb is worth more in the hands of a BS who grinded the Molten dailies than one in the hands of one too lazy to do so. So, you shouldn't compare the value of 359 items.
Monion Aug 1st 2011 7:32PM
Wait, have you been spying on my raid, Fox? I was asking about exactly that hammer and we were discussing precisely that situation around Chaos Orbs!
- Your Former Ulduar/ToC Paladin Healer Raid Leader
emberdione Aug 1st 2011 7:47PM
Not only are the chaos orbs on my server about 250g, but also the weapons are selling only at much lower cost than what they are on your server. There have been some instances of the crafted weapon selling lower than the cost of mats, without the orbs.
Why? Because of the ilevel. It's nice if you don't raid, but likely to get replaced fairly quickly, so on my server, no one's buying.
gewalt Aug 1st 2011 10:34PM
you should link your server when making such statements so we can check undermine journal to see if you are talking nonsense or not.
DonNochay Aug 1st 2011 10:46PM
@gewalt
Why? So you can get some sort of douchey elitist satisfaction out of it?
Grow up.
Thomas Higgins Aug 2nd 2011 1:53AM
I am not shy about my server. The Sha'tar. Europe. RP. I am however, ashamed of it. Its economy is run in the auction house by folks who could give Donald Trump lessons in how to REALLY suck at business instead of just merely sucking. (just look up "Trump" and "Chapter 11 bankruptcy" as a keyword search on Google)
If there is a way to try and gouge thousands out of gold from people on an item that isn't even Firelands loot or crafted from Firelands patterns, recipes and plans, then that way will be found.
Calicia Aug 2nd 2011 7:10AM
As a LW, I've never been able to command more than 500g per orb and 250g is more common.
With everyone grinding heroics again, crafters are all sitting on tons of orbs (I've got 30 in my bags ATM). On the other hand, until the prices of the epic recipes and the living embers settle, I think many crafters are sitting on the sidelines so not all of those orbs are in circulation.
Makes it hard to figure the market.
While everyone is getting valor gear, I'm focusing on leg armor kits and bags until things shake out.
gewalt Aug 2nd 2011 9:20AM
@troll
No, because the statement made is "my server is a special snowflake not like every other server" and you know what happens when such statements are researched? they are found to be incorrect.
You don't get "douchey elitism" for fact checking.
krisiteenie56 Aug 1st 2011 7:57PM
People on my server tend to sell orbs for a flat 200g no matter what its crafting. I never considered thinking of it the way the article says but it does make sense.
On a side note, does anyone know if/when they are actually planning to make them BOE?
Fox Van Allen Aug 1st 2011 10:12PM
Probably on or before the release of 4.3. So ... you've still got a few months.
vocenoctum Aug 1st 2011 11:12PM
Orbs on my server are no where near that equation. If an item goes for X and the mats go for Y, that doesn't mean you can charge X-Y to craft it and expect to get it. They do have some value obviously, but calculating based on mats doesn't seem to apply in any transaction I've seen/ heard of.
Jabadabadana Aug 2nd 2011 2:07AM
I'm on a server (maybe the same?) that also tends to just charge 200g per orb, flat rate. In fact, anytime I've tried even charging 250, it gets ignored. People have just decided that 200g is fair price, and that's that. (been lucky a couple times with people who are looking in trade for your profession, rather than me advertising, so I would suggest that method if people are in a similar situation on their server.)
Also, am I crazy to feel like orbs should be worth more, the more of them are needed for a pattern? The amount of time it takes for me to get 5, becomes more than the time it takes to get 3 or 1, because chain running 10-15 heroics isn't going to happen in a day or two on average.
Snuzzle Aug 2nd 2011 11:25AM
I want to be on your server. On mine, before the patch orbs were commonly going for 40g to 50g per. Rarely you'd get someone trying to scalp 75g. Now, good luck finding someone who'll take a copper under 500g. Someone yesterday tried to charge my buddy 1,000g/orb.
I won't pay such a ridiculous amount. I was lucky and got my polearm crafted day one while people were still trying to figure out what to charge (250g/orb... but I didn't tip :P) If you're raiding, they're alt pieces. Even the pvp stuff is better. So they're only really good for people who don't raid, don't ever pvp, and don't have enough gold/gear for FL trash boes (I'm just unlucky in my trash runs :()
Darias.Perenolde Aug 1st 2011 8:02PM
Would be great for an enterprising addon writer to use Auctioneer/Auctionator data and calculate Orb prices. Have an updated list of tailor, LW, BS, and eng recpies using them, and parse out the calcs for you.
If only I still had a brain for programming (or a brain for that matter). Stupid culinary school.
gewalt Aug 1st 2011 10:50PM
I use a google docs spreadsheet for all my crafts. K.I.S.S.
Jonathan Choy Aug 2nd 2011 5:07PM
Hell with the addon. Web App / iOS App using the AH API.
Jeff Aug 1st 2011 8:32PM
Meh. It's just a game. 500g or 1,000 g, I really don't care much as it's not real money anyhow. Oh wait, it may be soon. Diablo 3 real money AH, discuss.
Fox Van Allen Aug 1st 2011 10:10PM
TODAY, ON DIABLO3INSIDER.COM
Bregtannn Aug 1st 2011 9:56PM
Wouldn't the correct price of Chaos Orbs be equal to the cost of aquiring them?
The only way to aquire them is by farming heroics. The alternative cost of famring heroics for orbs is then compared to the profitability of other possible activities (such as farming herbs, doing dailies etc).
If doing a heroic takes you say 30 minues, and the chance of winning an Orb in a heroic is deemed, say 33% on average, then the time required to farm an orb is 90 minutes on average.
However, the Orb is not the only output from those 90 minutes. You get trash loot, vendor (or disenchanted) blues/epics etc, plus the final random daily reward. Minus repair costs. Just sum this up and say you find that 90 minutes of heroics farming netx you say 100g in "other profits".
Then figure out how much other activities such as heroing, mining, doing dailies etc give you per 90 minutes.
Voila:
[Correct Value of Orb] = [Potential income from other farming for 90 minutes] minus [Other income from 90 minutes heroics]