Scattered Shots: Marksmanship hunter scaling

WoW is a game with a lot of different moving parts that is deliberately designed so that different classes and different specs benefit differently from various stats and spells. One complex side effect of this is that different classes and specs can actually scale differently, growing in power at different rates even with the same gear increases.
For example, compare death knights and hunters from tier 11 to tier 12. A death knight going up an entire tier of gear is still ugly as sin and gained only the tiniest amount of good looks from the upgrades; meanwhile, hunters are exponentially more attractive (and hunters were pretty amazingly good-looking to start with).
Within the hunter class, scaling is most often cited with respect to the marksmanship hunter spec. MM hunters get far more benefit from their ranged weapon DPS than other hunter specs, and the complaint goes that MM will continue to grow further and further ahead of the other specs' DPS as gear progresses because of this scaling discrepancy.
Join me after the cut today as we tackle the issue of MM scaling and examine the theory and then see what's really happening as we improve our gear.
MM scaling theory
The ranged DPS that hunters get from our weapons brings a massive contribution to our overall DPS -- more, in fact, than any other stat. One ranged DPS is much better than even 1 agility. But MM hunters get more benefit still from their ranged weapon DPS than other specs because of the way MM's shots work.
Most hunter spec-specific special shots are not helped by ranged weapon DPS (most importantly, Explosive Shot and Kill Command). They have a ranged attack power coefficient but no contribution from the base DPS of our ranged weapons.
Marksman, on the other hand, does use its ranged DPS for its spec-specific shots, Chimera Shot and Aimed Shot. That's two powerhouses that are benefiting both from ranged attack power and ranged weapon DPS. But MM has more than that; the specialization Artisan Quiver boosts the damage of their Auto-Shot, which of course is based on their ranged DPS. Furthermore, the MM mastery Wild Quiver allows them to launch free Auto-Shots, which again benefit from ranged DPS.
The logic that you'll hear echoed all over hunter scaling discussions is that this huge boost that MM gets from ranged DPS -- far more than any other hunter spec -- causes them to scale far better than the other specs, who don't have all those extra shots benefiting from ranged DPS. Thus, as we get better and better gear through higher and higher tiers and get ranged weapons with more and more DPS, MM hunters' damage will increase more than any other spec's damage. So while SV's DPS might jump 10% from tier to tier, MM's would go up 15% or even more.
And this is rough, because MM is already on top of the damage output ... and they're just going to widen that gap.
Why the theory smells stinky
Right off the bat, the MM scaling theory smells a bit off. While all the logic is absolutely true and MM undeniably benefits from ranged DPS more than the other specs ... that's still only one stat. WoW has a lot of moving parts, remember, and we can't look at just one of them in a vacuum. This doesn't mean that the MM scaling theory is wrong -- but talking about only ranged DPS isn't very convincing. In fact, it leaves most of the variables out of the equation.
After all, SV hunters have the Into the Wilderness specialization that boosts agility by a whopping 10%. That's a very substantial benefit to a huge stat that affects every single shot. Certainly SV scales better with agility than any other spec, doesn't it? Then the SV mastery Essence of the Viper combos with that agility boost by boosting that boosted damage yet further for all magic-damaging attacks. So why don't we think SV has a scaling problem?
And of course, BM has its own benefits that scale differently from different stats. And these are just broad overviews -- the specs also have all different talents, and all of those talents affect scaling of the spec's damage output differently. SV's Toxicology and BM's Killing Streak give them more benefit from crit rating, for example. And these scaling differences for all stats are peppered throughout all three trees.
To actually predict scaling issues, you would need an incredibly sophisticated mathematical model of hunter DPS that took not just gear but literally every talent, glyph and pet optimization, raid buffs -- all of it -- into account. Fortunately, thanks to Zeherah, we have that. So let's take a look.
Hunter scaling in Cataclysm
For this test, I've plugged in something close to a best-in-slot gear list to Female Dwarf, with typical BM, MM, and SV raid specs with appropriate optimization for each spec. I checked gear at tier 11 normal, tier 11 heroic, tier 12 normal, and tier 12 heroic gear levels. This gives us four distinct, real-world gear levels that are each very substantial improvements upon the last.
If theory holds correct, then we should see MM's DPS growing at a consistently faster rate than any other spec. Let's take a look at the percentage of change we're seeing in each spec as they progress in gear.
| Tier 11 Normal | Tier 11 Heroic | Tier 12 Normal | Tier 12 Heroic | |
| Beast Mastery | base | 8.98% | 6.03% | 11.80% |
| Marksmanship | base | 11.90% | 8.09% | 12.39% |
| Survival | base | 7.98% | 8.88% | 12.2% |
Not quite what we'd expect under the MM scaling theory, is it?
We certainly see here different specs scaling at different rates from tier to tier -- but nothing consistent. Going from T11 normal to heroic was a nice jump for MM (and perhaps the source of the initial scaling speculation), but then SV scaled faster going to T12 and just about the same going to T12 heroic. BM appears to be a bit behind, on average, though the difference is neither huge nor that great.
The difference in DPS scaling between specs, however, is much smaller than the DPS loss or gain from the various balancing tweaks Blizzard makes in patches. After all, we're looking at a few percentage points here. And I'm pretty certain we'll see some more minor tweaks as patch 4.3 is tested.
I can't speak to how hunter scaling compares to other classes, largely because most classes don't have the awesome modeling tools available to hunters but also because I don't pay much attention to the support classes. But within the hunter class, the scaling of the different hunter specs is pretty darned close and about what you'd expect to see: Sometimes one spec does a bit better, sometimes another one does.
At best, what we can say is that BM needs not just a little DPS buff, but also a wee scaling buff. Not a big one, but something to gain it just a percent or two. Perhaps boost the BM mastery so it's not as clearly behind the other secondary stats?
But as for MM drastically outscaling the other hunter specs? Myth busted.
Filed under: Hunter, (Hunter) Scattered Shots






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
SymbolSix Aug 11th 2011 1:39PM
Frosty, it's columns like these that make me happy & proud to be a hunter.
jason_1975 Aug 11th 2011 2:40PM
Frost,
Thanks for digging into this. Can you explain your table a little better? I'm not sure if the percentages given are the scaling above the base, or above the previous tier of gear.
For instance, if it's a base scaling % you're giving, then are you saying going from T11 heroic to T12 normal gear is a DPS loss (MM 11.09% in T11 Heroic to 8.09% in T12 normal)?
It seems like you're giving the % increase from the previous tier, but it would be nice if you could call that out on the table.
Matt Aug 11th 2011 3:53PM
Also, the formatting on the table made it a little confusing to read at first. The top columns but right up against each other. A little more spacing between column headers would help clean it up a little =)
Frostheim Aug 11th 2011 6:48PM
The percentages show scaling above the previous tier. Thus each step shows the percentage that the spec scaled in that tier of gear.
Prezzolato Aug 11th 2011 3:20PM
I don't do much hardcore number crunching, so most of my theorycrafting comes from a lot of time on the test dummies practicing Survival and MM rotations without a pet and without using Rapid Fire. Both builds/rotations seemed to be about even for me although I did do just a smidge more DPS with MM. So I tend to believe the reason MM will generally do more DPS in a boss fight really comes down to the fact that they have access to Rapid Fire far more often than Survival during a boss fight. Getting 4 Rapid Fires in a boss fight compared to 2 can create a pretty big gap in DPS I would think. Your thoughts Frosty?
Matt Aug 11th 2011 3:57PM
And, perhaps more to the point: Rapid Fire actively combos with a lot of what MM does (especially in the careful aim range), in addition to the fact that MM has an additional cooldown it can pop (readiness) to farther increase that advantage; meanwhile, SV gets one cooldown (the base cooldown for all hunters) which has almost no real synergy with SV's talents or rotation. The DPS increase from Rapid Fire for SV is essentially equivalent to the number of extra Arcane Shots it buys you - which isn't that much.
Rovdyr Aug 11th 2011 6:43PM
I see one flaw in your logic:
You are forgetting that the base for dps in not the same for the three specs. We all know that MM is doing a bit better single target dps when the rotation is played correctly.
Let's assume that the start dps with T11N is 14000dps for BM, 18000 for MM and 16000dps for SV (just an example, please bear with me).
So, lets see what the scaling with better equipment means for the dps:
T11N DPS T11H DPS T12N DPS T12H DPS
Beast Mastery base 14000 9% 15260 6% 16176 12% 18117
Marksmanship base 18000 12% 20160 8% 21773 12% 24386
Survival base 16000 8% 17280 9% 18835 12% 21095
Now the dps difference that was 2000 in T11N has grown to 3291dps in T12H. Now, that's some difference. Let's assume that the trend continues and with every new Tier we get the same 12% scaling boost for all specs. Lets see how the dps would look then:
T13N T13H T14N T14H
Beast Mastery 20291 22726 25453 28507
Marksmanship 27312 30589 34260 38371
Survival 23627 26462 29638 33194
As you can see, the dps difference is steadily rising between the MM and SV from 2000dps in T11N to 5177dps in T14.
I'd say this is an issue since in the late game content, you would really loose a significant portion of damage if you choose other spec than MM, although the scaling ratio is the same for all the specs.
king heart Aug 11th 2011 6:47PM
Your lovely math aside, the article is on scaling and doesn't address dps disparity.
Frostheim Aug 11th 2011 6:47PM
I agree that MM does more dps, and that's a problem. Both other specs need a dps boost, and BM a bit more.
But the issue is whether MM scale's far better, and there's no indication of that. MM might scale a bit better, or it might be scaling close to the same as SV (keep in mind that a few percent in a theoretical model is easily lost in reality).
I do agree that SV and BM need a dps boost to bring all three on par, but the scaling looks pretty okay, or at worst is a minor problem for BM.
merlinsbeard Aug 11th 2011 7:15PM
But isn't this the point? At the current tier, I can still say "What the heck, I'm gonna be SV which I like better since 2000dps or so isn't gonna make a real difference whether we get the kill or not". But when we get to T14, I would no longer be able to ignore the significant loss of dps.
When I think of scaling problems, I might not care that mathematically the scaling is OK when I am forced in the next patch to choose MM or get singled out of the raid group.
Necromann Aug 11th 2011 7:12PM
For tier 12 gear, priests scaled down by a lot. I don't want to wear a toilet!
/cries in the corner
ZZnodis Aug 11th 2011 8:52PM
I am unconvinced by your data (not that I doubt Blizz is working on keeping all specs balanced). Using your data, I calculated increase from base for each spec and found:
BM 100 108.98 115.55 129.18
MM 100 111.9 120.95 135.94
SV 100 107.98 117.57 131.91
While the increase each individual ilvl may not be consistent, the over all effect is that MM _is_ scaling better than the other 2 specs at each tier. You data does show that the world isn't ending for SV and BM hunters though, all 3 specs are scaling well at least.
Frostheim Aug 12th 2011 9:17AM
"MM _is_ scaling better than the other 2 specs at each tier"
That is simply not true. If you look at the entire gain since t11 normal, MM is scaling around 4% better than SV. But each tier? MM only scaled measurably better from t11 to heroic t11 (that's where they got that 4% gain). The next tier MM scaled worse than SV. Then MM scaled about the same.
We do see that BM is scaling more poorly, but again all the differences we see here are relatively minor -- certainly smaller than the dps tweaks we get with each content patch.
TBaccus Aug 11th 2011 11:41PM
So the more appropriate point to make is that, because their 'primary' stat (forgive a possibly inappropriate use of the term) comes only from their weapon and no other piece of gear, MM hunters are going to see a major jump in DPS when they upgrade their weapon, much larger than the other two specs (who will also see a good jump, just not as critical). Not a massive problem, but Blizz could potentially take a look to see if they can find a way to balance this, or you could see MM hunters demanding priority for weapon drops over their just-as-good-looking brethren.
Would be interesting to do a similar comparison as above but only upgrading weapon drops from the previous tier. But I'm not going to do it, as I'm at work
DeathPaladin Aug 12th 2011 12:00AM
That Death Knight slam was uncalled for. Sure, all of the Death Knight tiers after 10 have been ugly, but there's one thing that we can all take solace in.
At least it's not druid armor.
tibbelkrunk Aug 15th 2011 9:41AM
It wasn't about the armor :P
Brock Aug 12th 2011 12:40AM
Have you considered that the DPS disparity is a result of MM scaling better?
Thiron Aug 12th 2011 2:45AM
For some reason I thought BM to be the best scaling spec from gear, while MM being most weapon-dependent
Teaspoon Aug 12th 2011 3:34AM
Wow, I hadn't heard the theory about MM scaling better because it's the only one that scales with weapon damage per shot (much like an Arms Warrior, which is interesting because I've always described MM Hunters as Arms-but-ranged)...
... but it's an entirely silly theory. Every spec gets their unique abilities tuned to make up for these disparities. In spite of the number of complaints on the internet, at least some of the developers at Blizzard do have a reasonable idea of how their game works. As mentioned in the article, Survival gets bonus agility for free. They also use an almost entirely separate set of core rotation abilities to MM (Steady, Aimed and Chimera vs Cobra, Black Arrow and Explosive) which get their own AP coefficients. They also have talents that change the coefficients on the abilities that they do share with other specs, so the scaling of each spec is based off entirely different statistics to the other specs. I'm nowhere near interested enough to run the numbers, but I'll bet Survival getts a bigger %DPS boost than MM out of upgrading any item OTHER THAN the ranged weapon, with the big boost to DPShot from the ranged weapon upgrade pushing MM back ahead for the rest of the tier once the weapon's dropped.
Luotian Aug 12th 2011 10:13AM
Not that anyone is asking, but Tia thinks all you doom sayers are silly. Blizzard has been working very hard to keep all three specs of every class viable for raiding, and I have to say that Hunters look good. If one gets out of control, I highly doubt they'll just leave it. These guys aren't stupid, and if you look at the amount of blue posts any given week they don't just patch and see what happens until the next one. It is a constantly evolving and changing game.
Treating everything like it is in a vacuum when the whole is so very complex seems silly to me. The numbers generated aren't 'real' because you're never gonna get an ideal play situation, and unless the gap is huge it is probably even more insignificant than it looks. Anyone that is asking you to change your spec now is being ridiculous, and I think Blizzard intends to keep it that way as long as they possibly can.