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All of the latest Mists of Pandaria newsGuardian Cub taking a bite out of third-party gold sales
by Fox Van Allen 
Nov 3rd 2011 at 2:00PM
The price of the Guardian Cub varies wildly by server -- a function of supply and demand. An impromptu Twitter survey suggests that the pet is currently selling for between 6,000 gold and 40,000 gold in game, depending on server size, competition, and a number of other factors. Most realms are currently seeing prices just north of 10,000 gold.
Certainly, the final page of the Guardian Cub saga has yet to be written, and prices will be extraordinarily volatile in the next few days, weeks, and months. Still, even at a conservative exchange rate of $10 for a 10,000-gold pet, players can get a far better (and safer!) deal buying gold through Blizzard via the Guardian Cub than dealing with a gold seller. The difference is stark -- the same amount of gold may cost you $20 or $30 through a third-party site. And even then, you have no guarantee of getting your gold, no guarantee that your account won't be compromised, and no guarantee that your purchase isn't supporting forced labor and account theft.
Will the Guardian Cub kill off third-party gold sales? Probably not, at least on its own. Interest in this new pet simply cannot be sustained long term. But if the last 24 hours of trading on the in-game Auction House are any indication, Blizzard just fired a shot into a multi-billion-dollar gray market.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped. Do you have questions about selling, reselling, and building your financial empire on the auction house? Fox and Basil are taking your questions at fox@wowinsider.com and basil@wowinsider.com.
Filed under: News items, Economy
Reader Comments (Page 3 of 5)
Amaxe Nov 3rd 2011 6:32PM
"In the long run, you're right -- this pet *alone* won't put a sizable dent in third-party gold sellers. But if we get a new tradeable pet/mount every four months or so ... that's a lot of dents, and a lot of pressure on the bad guys' bottom line."
That's also a disturbing trend for RMT with WoW. I wonder just how much they'll have to concede to compete with the gold sellers.
Will they eventually have to cross the epics for sale boundary? I hope not, but I really don't think I can say "never" or "impossible" any more.
Sarducci Nov 3rd 2011 2:25PM
they should use the solution pioneered by the Kingdom of Loathing. A new vanity item, mount or pet every month...that is ONLY available for that month. That way there is something new each month, old things may appreciate in value (like trading card items) and people will be able to converge on the fair price for one of the current month's purchasable vanity item.
snarkygoldfish Nov 3rd 2011 2:50PM
Kingdom of Loathing is hardly the only site / game to use this tactic. Gaia Online (and the other "avatar" chat sites) have had Monthly Collectibles as part of their revenue stable since it's inception in 2003. $2.50 got you a little letter you opened at the end (now middle) of the month, and you got a choice of two items.
Before Gaia's formal cash shop introduction, they were a great way to obtain gold every month without dealing with botting for gold, taking art commissions, or dealing with shady goldsellers.
Infinite Duck Nov 3rd 2011 2:57PM
Oh god I hope not. The problem with a monthly system is I, and people like me, can't keep up with the purchases monthly however feel they have to purchase them in some way to keep up with the community. I know I've quit every system that uses the monthly item. For a free to play game, it does make sense, but I feel left out if I do not purchase my monthly items every month whether it's with real money or game currency. And in no way will I be paying 15 + 10x a month for WoW so I always have at least one game pet for my character(and I have 6 85s) and with time restraints on my game play I could not pay 10k a month for a pet without devoted a lot more time to farming.
Normally I wouldn't say "I'd quit if they did this." But the reality is, feeling I'd need to purchase one every month would make me walk away from WoW. It would make WoW far too expensive to play, and far too time consuming for me as a player.
I realize missing a monthly item will not affect my game play, but it makes me disappointed, left out, and makes me feel like I'm falling behind.
Wow could you imagine that? Joe drops 200 bucks on January's Pet and sells them in October for 50k each, giving him a million gold. Can't really argue it wouldn't affect game play at that point...
snarkygoldfish Nov 3rd 2011 3:22PM
Infinite - Oh, I definitely agree. It works on places like KoL and Gaia Online because they require no other monetary involvement beyond voluntary to use the site. For Blizz to do this, while still charging $15 a month....I'd kinda cry.
Rob Nov 3rd 2011 4:23PM
Kol is great, but the item you get is a very nice trinket _ think epic level like the dmf trinkets. You could then trade a mr. A for the pet of the month, which did alot of cool things, think like a hunter pet in wow. I would not mind seeing blizz go that route, but at that point it should be free to play since players are expected to do microtransactions frequently to enjoy the game.
Caylynn Nov 3rd 2011 2:26PM
Sold one for 12K last night, putting on the AH just after it unbound.
Today, the prices on the AH are all under 9K. Glad I sold mine early before prices started to fall. I'm curious to see how this will all play out!
Jaq Nov 3rd 2011 2:28PM
Currently only one on my server, selling for 30K.
Mind you Misha's Horde side economy is pretty miserable, so it may be a while before it gets to a more reasonable level.
Rolgath Nov 3rd 2011 2:29PM
On Illidan, horde side, they is a massive amount on the AH, but unfortunately only selling for about 6k as of last night, probably lower now
Everclear Nov 3rd 2011 2:33PM
Until these pets reach the saturation point for the target demographic. And then they become cheaper and more obsolete, down to 3k... then 1k... then around 500 gold a few months from now. At which point $10 for 500 gold isn't even close to the 3rd party rate. All those sites have to do is wait a little bit and it swings back in their favor heavily.
Fox Van Allen Nov 3rd 2011 2:47PM
That's not how economics works. These pets will never sell for 500 gold -- I sincerely doubt there is anyone out there willing to trade $10 of real money for such a pittance.
Remember your supply and demand curves here. The market will slow, probably around 3,000 gold, maybe a little less. And that level is still competitive with third-party sites, especially if people are willing to pay a premium for buying gold "within the rules." And three or four months later, when interest has waned, we'll be talking about the next RMT pet that's available to trade ...
snarkygoldfish Nov 3rd 2011 2:52PM
Fox - you might be surprised!
As I mentioned in a previous post -- look at Gaia Online's (Please, don't laugh) economy with real-money items and their in-game currency equivalent. When the item is no longer "new and shiny" -- they end up at sometimes embarrassingly low prices. (Way below that $7.50 someone initially spent on it)
Then again...these items are also not bind on use. I guess there's that.
The Dewd Nov 3rd 2011 2:55PM
@Fox - If Blizzard doesn't have at least 1-2 more pets ready to go and more in development, I'd be surprised.
That having been said, I'll be watching the prices closely because I refuse to buy pets and mounts from the store but wouldn't be above spending a small-enough amount of gold on one of these.
Claire Nov 3rd 2011 3:11PM
"These pets will never sell for 500 gold -- I sincerely doubt there is anyone out there willing to trade $10 of real money for such a pittance."
Ah, but you're forgetting -- when I buy the Guardian Cub, I'm GUESSING as to the amount of gold I can get for it. What if I guess wrong? What if I think I can sell it for 10k or 5k, but overnight, the bottom drops out of the market? This is an item purchased in anticipation of future demand. If the would-be reseller discovers that demand is lower than anticipated, s/he may end up selling at very low prices (since the alternative is no gold at all).
Mind you, I think demand will be fairly steady for at least a month or two. In the longer term, I would expect these to settle around 5k, with people re-listing a few times before actually making the sale.
Grovinofdarkhour Nov 3rd 2011 3:57PM
@ Claire
Here's one example of what the "floor" might be for a seller:
"The first one I can't get 2000g for, that'll be the one I use myself - and my last purchase."
Amaxe Nov 3rd 2011 6:35PM
"I sincerely doubt there is anyone out there willing to trade $10 of real money for such a pittance."
They may not intend to when they buy it, but they may eventually think they need to settle for what they can get if the market tanks.
Haga Nov 3rd 2011 3:03PM
Bliz has already stated this is an experiment. If the experiment works, and its too early to tell, then I think we can see a lot more of these microtransactions in the future. My prediction: recolors of classic gear sets. It greatly increases the ability of Bliz to release multiple products. And with multiple products available, the timetable for saturation would become much longer. Mounts and pets are nice, and I know many players are collectors (as am I), but I foresee a problem with Bliz prepping enough pets (and definitely mounts) as a fast enough pace to prevent market saturation.
Reservoir Nov 3rd 2011 2:43PM
Gold is so easy to make and so hard to spend on anything useful I just don't understand the goldrush in wow.
jfofla Nov 3rd 2011 4:04PM
In my job it takes me 7 minutes (mostly on WOW Insider) to make $10.
I can now trade my 7 minutes for 10k Gold.
That is why the gold rush, Time is Money Friends!
(cutaia) Nov 3rd 2011 5:13PM
Wait...doesn't that mean you make $85 an hour? #occupyjfofla