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All of the latest Mists of Pandaria newsGuardian Cub taking a bite out of third-party gold sales
by Fox Van Allen 
Nov 3rd 2011 at 2:00PM
The price of the Guardian Cub varies wildly by server -- a function of supply and demand. An impromptu Twitter survey suggests that the pet is currently selling for between 6,000 gold and 40,000 gold in game, depending on server size, competition, and a number of other factors. Most realms are currently seeing prices just north of 10,000 gold.
Certainly, the final page of the Guardian Cub saga has yet to be written, and prices will be extraordinarily volatile in the next few days, weeks, and months. Still, even at a conservative exchange rate of $10 for a 10,000-gold pet, players can get a far better (and safer!) deal buying gold through Blizzard via the Guardian Cub than dealing with a gold seller. The difference is stark -- the same amount of gold may cost you $20 or $30 through a third-party site. And even then, you have no guarantee of getting your gold, no guarantee that your account won't be compromised, and no guarantee that your purchase isn't supporting forced labor and account theft.
Will the Guardian Cub kill off third-party gold sales? Probably not, at least on its own. Interest in this new pet simply cannot be sustained long term. But if the last 24 hours of trading on the in-game Auction House are any indication, Blizzard just fired a shot into a multi-billion-dollar gray market.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped. Do you have questions about selling, reselling, and building your financial empire on the auction house? Fox and Basil are taking your questions at fox@wowinsider.com and basil@wowinsider.com.
Filed under: News items, Economy
Reader Comments (Page 5 of 5)
Anteia Nov 3rd 2011 5:48PM
The problem with the vendor idea is that it IS directly selling gold in that case. The main argument people have used that this -isn't- is that it is not actually generating new gold into the economy of a server, simply switching it around, from one player to another. A vendor, however, CREATES gold and if you could guarantee even a couple thousand gold for ten dollars, that would make things even worse. Many have wanted a gold sink for this expansion, as there is little to spend a lot of money on unless you do buy the BOE epics. I, myself, have near 100k gold without even actually ever trying for it. It's just amassed through doing dailies, quests, and occasionally selling volatiles. I've even bought a pricey BOE weapon for my druid since I kept being unlucky. That knocked me down a bit, but I'm back to 95k again around a month later... and I've barely played this month besides the horseman. Things are selling for 25k because people don't know what to do with their gold otherwise. But that doesn't mean it's healthy for the economy.
Bossy Nov 3rd 2011 7:08PM
On my server it is being offered at around 15-16 K atm.
But I saw some side effects.
Prices of some very rare BOE gear and some mounts etc went up with 25-30% too.
Now I ... AM going to play D3 with its challenging new RMAH since the idea simply attracts me ... but ...
could it be that by offering IN game gold for hard cash, ... Blizzard in fact is encouraging normal players to simply buy gold now.
I mean I really never thought about buying gold, but with all these techniques they tempt players to simply buy gold....
And the 2 times I did get an epic BOE drop in the last month, I immediately checked its price value on some illegal gold selling websites.
It was something I never did before.
Questions....
Everclear Nov 3rd 2011 7:46PM
Yup. On one end you have people scrambling to buy the pets to make gold in the game, and on the other end you have the buyers that are fully aware of said strategy. So you have this sequence about to happen:
1.) A flood of new Cubs are hitting the AH. Let's be optimistic here and say they're selling at a steady 11k gold right now (they're at 4.5-5.5k on my server). Right now you can get 9k gold for $10 via 3rd party sites (this isn't me recommending anything, by the way). So right now, you're "making" 1,000 gold per Cub.
2.) The large slice of people that are keenly aware of the system are just waiting for Cubs to drop in price before they buy one, much like the Tankard O' Terror from the Brewfest holiday: Just wait until there's three pages of them in the AH and then buy the cheapest one. A week of undercutting will make these Cubs relatively cheap in comparison to the original, first-day Cubs.
3.) Now you have the majority of potential buyers buying them at the lowest price, which is far lower than the 3rd party rate of 9,000 gold (like I said, even right now there are Cubs under 5k on my server alone). It will take a couple weeks for all the cheap Cubs to be sold and for the sellers to stop undercutting the market to get the rates back up to the 1:1 ratio of 9k per Cub. But once they do, 80-85% of the demographic that wanted a Cub already has one. And 60-75% of the sellers that wanted to make gold off a Cub already sold theirs (more people want gold than want a Cub, after all).
4.) Result? More people are selling than people are buying. And if the Cubs ever get to 9k or more, it's smarter (in terms of money, not security or morals) to just go to a 3rd party site and purchase the gold directly again.
This Cub won't solve the 3rd party issue. It's sad, but the 3rd party market controls the WoW market, not the other way around. Because making gold in WoW is free (outside of the cost of time, which isn't quantitative), and it can be done infinitely. Releasing a new pet every couple months is not going to be the cure-all for 3rd party gold-selling. People only need one pet, and after that it's obsolete. Unlike gold, which stacks infinitely and can be used for virtually every in WoW (including buy cheap pets on the AH), pets don't stack. So they have a ceiling of value, unlike gold, which skyrockets in value every patch and expansion.
The best way for WoW to stop the bleeding and REALLY take a bite out of the 3rd party gold sellers is actually Diablo 3's AH model. It's brilliant, and renders the majority of 3rd party gold and item sellers useless. But that would flip WoW upside down at this point and kill the subscriber base. It's too late to do something like that now. Like one of the WoWInsider writers wrote in a column a month or two ago about gold inflation in the game, it's a tough, tough problem and I really don't see a concrete solution on the horizon. Which must drive Blizzard higher-ups mad.
But, sadly, the Cub isn't it.
Bossy Nov 3rd 2011 8:36PM
I still think Blizzard will introduce the RMAH in WOW in 2013.
They'll gather experience in D3. Then they will redesign 50% of the loot in WOW. raise the BOE gear drops along with very random (almost D3 like) drops. Redo the Mats and hop you'll be in RMAH WOW before you know it. With 50% of the absolute top gear still on BOP to motivate raiding and certainly 75% BOP of PvP gear.
They need to search for grinding zone solutions by making these BOE drops complete random and the pet system already works in both kinds of AH (gold and RM).
If successful the income from a RMAH along with the Pet sales can make up for the subscriptions of 13 Euro a month before you know it.
And really I do think the subscription based models are out of date.
SW TOR will prove just that: a massive exit of players once the subscriptions need to be paid past the 3rd 4th month. It has been that for the last 6 years already. That 70-80*% drop will not be stopped by voice overs or cinematics.
My guess is that Blizzard will introduce the WOW RMAH between the 4th and the 5th expansion, say early 2013. By that time fixed subscriptions will cease to exist. I never believe the new MMO from Blizzard will even have one.
RMAH is much better than designers selling goods in lame shops or players getting frustrated they need to pay monthly just to be able to log in.
JiggyBOOM! Nov 3rd 2011 7:59PM
All the arguments about wage vs. gold price are forgetting one very important fact. WOW is a video game. People don't generally play because they have to. They play to have fun.
I certainly wouldn't pay someone 85$ an hour to have fun playing a video game. The gold you earn is devalued because of that. Or is WOW your actual job?
fuitad Nov 3rd 2011 9:43PM
If you want to follow the guardian cub economy, we created a special page that covers all realms :)
http://www.ahspy.com/special/72068/
Kar On E Nov 4th 2011 9:49AM
Dude, I am so buying you dinner some night if I ever wind up meeting you. Not just for this (which is awesome), but for all the years on FuitadNet I had and for just being an all around good guy.
fuitad Nov 4th 2011 10:04AM
Everytime someone mentions FuitadNET, I can't help but smile. It's neat that some folks remember that :).
Thanks!
johnalarson4 Nov 3rd 2011 11:19PM
I wonder if Blizz will take a page from EVE Online and sell an in-game item that confers game time.
I really appreciated that in EVE. Not only does it offer a safe way for people to buy gold (which we seem to like in this thread? That's new, but I don't disagree) and has the added effect of allowing more fiscally adept players to play the game for free, which I think is really cool.
Amaxe Nov 3rd 2011 11:28PM
There are still two people selling those same cubs on Shadow Council US (Alliance). Either the cheaper ones are getting snapped up immediately (unlikely) or else people on this server aren't willing to go for it at the range of 12k to 14k.
I asked around in SW what people thought. The responses I got were basically "Not at that price."
WoW Census tells me there are about 6800 Alliance players on the realm but it's also one of those "We need your help" servers.
Might explain why so few people seem to care compared to the other comments about their servers.
sudsy1194 Nov 4th 2011 3:50AM
Does anyone see gsellers buying pet for $10, selling in AH fo 15K, then selling gold at $10 each 1000g. Turning a $10 invest into a $140 profit
Seedcake Nov 4th 2011 5:01AM
I'm on a very active server and the competition is pretty fierce -- I bought two tonight at 6500g each which I guess is lower than most servers. With a little diligence, WoW gold is easy to make, and I was willing to pay this price in virtual money for something I wouldn't spend real cash on normally. I REALLY like having this option and I hope it returns again in the form of more new pets. :)
Robert Wright Nov 4th 2011 7:24AM
I just bought it to use it
i dont really mind its a cool looking pet
flies and does crazy things
and "oh no its BTC im doomed
i have one character so doesnt hurt my feelings
i can only see this being a problem for the people that have a billion alts
fuitad Nov 4th 2011 9:58AM
Everytime someone mentions FuitadNET, I can't help but smile. It's neat that some folks remember that :).
Thanks!
fuitad Nov 4th 2011 10:02AM
Crap. I didn't mean to post this as a new comment. This was a reply. Doh!
myleadmail Nov 7th 2011 1:42PM
Ok...but question.....why still exchange real life money for wow gold? There's a ton of easy ways to make 10k gold. Even if you don't want to grind all day just get a gold addon and you can make 10-20k a day, easy peasy. Personally, I've been looking at tycoon gold addon because it seems to automate most of what all the gold guides teach you about gold farming/AH trading. You can read some real user at reviews http://wowguidenews.com if you're interested. Thay pretty much sold me. The review didnt convince me a whole lot, but the comments at the bottom of actual users who have the addon did. Well worth reading.
My advice - forget trying to resell guardian pets or buying one with real cash and just get a good gold addon and watch the gold flow like water. :D
myleadmail Nov 7th 2011 1:48PM
This is how they will fall into the gseller market....gold sellers will buy them for 6k gold and sell them for $7-$9 real cash (expect a guardian pet black market soon). Secondly they will buy them for $10 and sell them for 15k. And third they'll play the market to boost the price.