Shifting Perspectives: In which Allison makes a stupid prediction

Well, I'm bushed. Post-BlizzCon, I reached that dreamy level of fatigue allowing me to hallucinate that I am on a Thai beach being served fizzy drinks by men in loincloths, and that was lovely while it lasted. But just as I had recovered from the delusion that this was ever going to happen, a freak snowstorm hit the American northeast and killed every tree and power line in sight. Folks, I spent a week without power or internet, and I am mad at the world.
Let's see. What did I have on the docket for this week? Responsibly and rationally evaluating what we learned at BlizzCon 2011? The hell with that. Let's start off by completely ignoring the new talents announced, and then getting into a quite possibly asinine prediction that I will try to pretend never happened if it doesn't come true.
The other cheek
Hey, wait a minute. Why are we ignoring the new talents?
Because they're pointless.
Whoa, whoa. Calm down there, slugger! The new talents are very interesting, don't get me wrong. However, they don't mean anything out of context, and right now, we're fresh out of context. Short of an information dump from Blizzard in the next several months, we won't be able to evaluate the new talents accurately until the Mists of Pandaria alpha goes live and information is inevitably leaked.
Let's take Tireless Pursuit from the first tier as an example. It "removes all roots and snares, and increases movement speed by 70% while in Cat Form for 15 seconds." Nice! It's always good to add a gap-closer for PvP, or something that'll help you catch up to a pesky mob in a raid. But we don't know if things like Dash or Stampeding Roar are baseline anymore.
So Tireless Pursuit is either:
- an additional Dash that helpfully picks up Stampeding Roar's root/snare clear, or
- meant to replace Dash/Stampeding Roar on druid specs that no longer have either skill, and the fact that it removes roots and snares means that all four druid specs have lost the ability to shapeshift out of them. No bueno.
So don't panic. Don't rejoice. We don't know what these talents really mean, and we won't until Blizzard starts dropping information on which skills are baseline and which ones aren't.
So now let's get to our quite possibly stupid prediction:
A comeback for tanking leather
Why will tanking leather make a comeback?
Because in order to get the Raid Finder to work -- or to use its loot system in the Dungeon Finder, as Blizzard's hinted at doing -- tanking and DPS leather can't be the same thing without being a complete nightmare for everyone concerned.
I've started to wonder if the final split between the bear and cat arrived not because Blizzard actually wanted to divide the specs but because there's no foolproof means of distinguishing between the two as long as they share the same spec. Back when a player named Zardoz collected statistics for Armory Data Mining, he tried his hardest to figure out a way to count which feral players were decisively bears and which were definitely cats. A guest blogger named Darush later revisited the issue using some advanced statistical techniques to try to cut through all the noise.
They arrived at the conclusion that, at least through the information available through the Armory (talents, glyphs, stat valuation, and so on), there wasn't a good way to do it. While there are a lot of players who are definitely playing one of the two specs over the other, there's also a huge population of players who could be either or both. I suspect the issue has become even more muddled now than it was two years ago, as the modern bear values stamina less than it did in Wrath of the Lich King.
So there's that. And then there's also a blue post from this past week, in response to Fasc's question over how the Raid Finder plans to classify agility leather:
LFR Loot Rules: Questions and quirks
What we are doing for 4.3 with the Raid Finder looting system (detailed here:http://us.battle.net/wow/en/blog/3608426) is an experiment in order to try and reduce loot drama without removing the chance to benefit from offspec gear completely. In fact, a lot of what we are trying with Raid Finder for 4.3 is our very first attempt at a design that is going to need a lot of iteration before we're happy with how it works. We'll use the information we gather on the new looting system (we can call it Need+, for simplicity's sake) and Raid Finder in 4.3 to make both features even better for Mists of Pandaria.
The game currently does not have a very robust notion of what your spec is, so for now we can't make the loot rules very stringent, other than checking your current role. In Mists of Pandaria, the game will have a well-developed "concept" of spec, and we can do things like let an Enhancement shaman roll need plus on an Agility axe without letting the Restoration shaman roll need plus. (The Resto shaman could still roll need though, since shaman can use axes and the player might presumably have an Enhancement offspec.)
The game currently does not have a very robust notion of what your spec is, so for now we can't make the loot rules very stringent, other than checking your current role. In Mists of Pandaria, the game will have a well-developed "concept" of spec, and we can do things like let an Enhancement shaman roll need plus on an Agility axe without letting the Restoration shaman roll need plus. (The Resto shaman could still roll need though, since shaman can use axes and the player might presumably have an Enhancement offspec.)
First observation Blizzard's saying right off the bat that the Raid Finder's loot system is a work-in-progress, and it's going to take some fiddling once it hits the live servers.
Second observation "The game currently does not have a very robust notion of what your spec is, so for now we can't make the loot rules very stringent, other than checking your current role." Uh-oh.
In other words, bears are not going to have priority on agility leather when this system goes live. To be fair, they shouldn't have priority, because it's not really tank gear. Automatically having a need+ roll on agility leather screws over every cat and rogue in the raid, and that's not right. However, the lack of a need+ roll on their own gear leaves bears in a pretty horrible position relative to plate tanks, who (even if they don't get priority on strength plate either) have always wanted defensive stats that DPSers tend to avoid. If your co-tank in a raid wears plate, then by definition he or she has almost no loot competition of any kind.
This is a problem that will only be realistically solved by the reintroduction of tanking leather. Otherwise, the guardian druid and the brewmaster monk will find themselves rolling against feral druids and all three rogue specs for gear. In addition to these folks, competition for agility rings, necklaces, cloaks, and trinkets will also arrive from all three hunter specs and the enhancement shaman. Plate tanks will have a massive gearing advantage over their leather tank colleagues, because they're only ever rolling against two or three specs at most (the protection warrior, the protection paladin, and the blood death knight).
Solution? Split the specs. Give the game a foolproof method of distinguishing between bears and cats, and give each their own gear. That's my guess, anyway.
Sub-prediction The Raid Finder's present inability to distinguish between the bear and cat specs and the inability to give the game's present agility-based tank a need+ roll on its gear is going to be a huge issue in patch 4.3.
Shifting Perspectives helps you gear your bear druid, breaks down the facts about haste for trees, and then digs into the restoration mastery. You might also enjoy our look at the disappearance of the bear.
Filed under: Druid, Analysis / Opinion, (Druid) Shifting Perspectives
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Mystery of the Unborn Val'kyr
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Reader Comments (Page 4 of 4)
Boobah Nov 15th 2011 1:51PM
One problem no one has mentioned yet is that in 1-85 content there is next to no tank leather (as far as I'm aware, the Heavy Clefthoof set is IT). Which means that you have to be capable of tanking in DPS leather. And once you can do that, why add another class of gear with limited appeal? Especially when you can do the job in gear that other specs are still going to need regardless.
Tarfuin Nov 15th 2011 11:57AM
@CayLynn
I hear what you're saying with SPriests in terms of rolling on Spirit gear I suppose, but elemental Shaman and Balance Druids NEED to roll on spirit gear. There just isn't almost any caster mail or leather gear that doesn't have spirit on it. If, for example, Balance Druids weren't supposed to roll on Spirit leather, they wouldn't even be able to equip a full set of Firelands gear.
As a healer myself, I know how much it sucks when a dps rolls on spirit gear, but most of the time they don't have a choice.
Tarfuin Nov 15th 2011 3:17PM
That was supposed to be a reply, sorry.
Aedaron Nov 15th 2011 12:20PM
Can we talk about how little healing functionality seems to be present in the current iteration of druid talents? For example, almost every priest talent has some beneficial application to healing, excepting the movement tier of course, whereas only three or four total druid talents currently have some direct application to healing. Most of our talents so far seem to be devoted purely to utility, or to this dubious shape-shifting focus the developers seem to want to push us towards.
phaedra Nov 15th 2011 12:32PM
Bleh. I was feeling a little ambivalent towards the LFR prior to this article but after reading it, I don't think I'll be queueing as a tank for it. Besides the normal drama of being a tank in a PuG, the last thing I want is unclear messages about loot.
One possible temporary solution would be to be really specific in the item tagging. I *think* Blizzard has stated that you'll only be able to roll +need/need on your preferred item class, which is a help. I think they need to tag items as "plate tank" "strength DPS" "leather tank" "agility DPS" "cloth healer" etc and have multiple tags on an item.
What would also work would be adding a 4th role selection and splitting the DPS selection as melee and caster. That way, you wouldn't have enhancement shaman rolling +need on caster mail gear. Would probably also help with raid balancing (might screw over melee queues, though).
styopa Nov 15th 2011 12:42PM
Why not just have tanking leather be +STA?
Make AGI the stat for dps druids, and STA for bears. So you'd have leather with big, fat stacks of HUGE stamina.
- it would be of only marginal interest to any other leather-wearing class (possibly useful in a pinch, but not better than anything really targeted at any other role)
- it would return the bears to the "we don't finesse much but we can absorb stupid-huge amounts of damage" spot in the tanking firmament. I *liked* that, it's unique, it gives us a special approach that's not a clone of someone else, and it makes playing with bears DIFFERENT for healers.
- make the bears' abilities, etc all key off STA. Attack power bonuses based on STA, whatever. Personally, I think this would be fairly simple (relatively) to balance AND to scale properly for Blizzard, too.
So the tank paradigms would be:
- warrior tanks: finesse, using abilities, managing rage, best for single-tough bosses doing physical damage - block tank
- pally tanks: self-healers, aoe tanks, flexible, buffbots - magic shield tank
- DK tanks: best vs magic bosses, managing cooldowns to deal with threats - cooldown tank
- druid tanks: buttload of hp, flexible. HP pool is so big that even if the healers can't keep up with the damage, we have plenty of time to down the boss before those hp run out....
- monk tank: dodge tank, I'd suppose.
Boobah Nov 15th 2011 2:02PM
The most obvious reason? Because in a world where mana matters, nobody wants to heal the mana sponge.
The devs seem to balance around time-to-die, so if you have more health, you can plan on taking more damage. That means that the healers have more work to do, which means they have to use bigger, faster, less efficient heals. Then they run out of mana faster, and you wipe to something that would have died if it had been any other flavor of tank.
styopa Nov 15th 2011 5:35PM
Or, perhaps you have to approach a stamina tank a different way.
What if druids had (using an extreme example here) 10x the stamina of other tanks, but no parry or block, *AND* they had some sort of incoming buff that heals gave them 8x the hp healed from any source?
So no, they don't HAVE to be a mana sponge, and could be an extremely robust tank that you don't have to watch every second. Maybe then healers have a little different approach - instead of trying to counteract the damage in short spans of time until their mana runs out, they can cast slower, bigger heals and be more efficient?
You're right that the devs seem to balance against time-to-die (vs whatever is a level-appropriate healing input counteracting the constant drain). Some tanks have cooldowns that give them breathers; others have mitigation stats that themselves reduce the incoming damage slope.
Why not have a class that can indeed just take it in the face?
themightysven Nov 15th 2011 12:55PM
I'm of the opinion that the "best" solution would be for Raid Finder to function in the same manner as holiday bosses. (i.e. each boss has a set item on a general roll [trinkets, rings, neck, back] and then each player gets a bag that may or may not be filled with awesomesauce)
with a smarter system the RNG could be quietly shown the door, and that the only thing you can get from your bag is loot you can use (i.e. it checks if your item level in the slot available from that boss is full of same or better loot before rolling if you get it, if everyone in the raid is higher geared then it drops x number of purple enchanting mats on the corpse as well)
but all that would require them to put a lot of pre-thought into itemization, and the current expansion fills me with the scepticism on that number...
Brian! Nov 15th 2011 1:42PM
With the loot rules, that you can only get one piece of gear anyway... I guess as it currently stands, I say let the tanks have it first. They are the hardest to find and if they want to roll on my cat gear, I'll take the hit.
Look, being a tank already is hard. Being a tank in a 25 man PUG is going to be a nightmare. Don't know what else to say about that. Separate gear might be nice - but whatever.
Boobah Nov 15th 2011 2:10PM
You don't only get to roll on one piece of gear; you only get a chance to roll on any given boss once a week in LFR (and then once more in regular or heroic). If your first Spine kill that week in LFR drops two (or three, or five) pieces you can use, you can roll on all of them. If it doesn't drop anything you can use, you're done looting the Spine for the week anyway.
And given the nature of LFR, letting the tanks gear up first seems unwise; once they've been through the place once and gotten all the gear from there, it's less likely they'll be back at all. Just as importantly, it's fairly unlikely you'll see that tank again anyway.
Besides, even if you feel it should go to the tank, the best way to make sure it gets there is to roll need yourself and hand it over if you win.
Luke Nov 15th 2011 4:49PM
"Hey, wait a minute. Why are we ignoring the new talents?
Because they're pointless."
Thank you.
For some reason I felt the need to be diplomatic about this, and it fell on deaf ears.
sarah Nov 15th 2011 7:13PM
I think your predictions are right on.
There is an easy solution to the Intellect Plate option, but it would make Paladins very angry. Let Holy Paladins wear Mail without penalty. They're now equivalent to a Resto Shaman. Problem solved, and there's still only 3 specs rolling on intellect mail. Of course, I would prefer to have my Holy Paladin wearing plate.
Alternatively, if mana pool isn't going to be affected by Intellect any more, and abilities are going to be locked down by your spec choice at level 10, does it really matter if they put Intellect back onto DPS Plate? DKs and Warriors can completely ignore it, and I daresay they can balance Retadins with the Intellect boost to spellpower in mind. If a Holy Paladin gets bonuses to spells (such as the existing Exorcism talent) or has exclusive access to spells that a Retadin doesn't, Intellect isn't going to be a lot of use there either. Heck, they could just baseline build into the spec that Retadins get no benefit from Intellect on gear if they want to be lazy. The advantage would be that Holy/Ret could use the same gear even if it is suboptimal - much as the current Balance/Resto druid pairing.
sziszi Nov 16th 2011 6:17AM
how about...
stupid ideea coming:
so how about they let you reforge all (100%) the strenght to intelect or back?
Then holy paladins could roll on dps plate, or if no holy pala in raid, warrs/dks could roll/use all that intelect plate. Intelect and stenght anyways like super stats, and this could be done super super easy... and the rest of the stats are useful to some degrre to every spec (mastery, crit, haste)
And like I sayd, Its realy easy to do, just alter some numbers at reforging, and problem solved...
same for spirit to hit. And then an item with intelect/spirit could be used as strenght/hit by 3 classes and 8 specs.
and same (maybe) for agility to intelect on leather/mail - if there is a problem there, but I guess isnt really.
Cloth guys doing it anyways (shadowpriests/moonkins) - kind a - when use spirit-hit conversion...
dont shoot me if this is stupid... but why would be?
fian Nov 16th 2011 2:21PM
I don't believe that they will revert to tanking and dps leather, i think feral adn guardian druids will just compete for loot and i don't think that will cause massive issues. Otherwise how much druid tank loot will end up getting wasted - because neither of the two tanks in the raid happens to be a monk/druid. Otherwise you will have druids running off-spec to get gear priority on that spec and hoping no druid/monk happens to tank so they get a shot at the tank gear if it drops too.
There is a much bigger problem with the role loot dynamic though. It will mean that as soon as people are geared for their main spec they will stop running it anymore, and run their offspec instead to gear that up. Basically it discourages you from running the role you are best at. That perverse incentive has to go or problems will surface, the worst part is that they will not be immediately apparent when each new raid starts so it will take time for them to surface.
I know that you have little incentive to run raid finder raids when you are fully geared anyway, but I am talking abotu people thinking "hmm i have all the ms drops i need from first two bosses so i run offspec in them and hope to snag some loot."
Boozard Dec 8th 2011 12:50AM
i'm late on this but i just want to throw in that perhaps they should just let priests wear plate (clerics anyone?). 4 specs for plate int and all can use spirit. 6 specs for cloth and they can just remove spirit from that armor class. win all around (except for the holy pally).