Gold Capped: Relentless markdown wars

I got an email from someone recently about a new competitor.
I have recently returned to the blacksmithing armor and belt buckles market. When I researched my old stomping ground, I found that materials cost has increased, profits are almost non-existent, and competition was rampant! I didn't let that get me down, however. I watched the market, checked the reference data, got a good handle on the situation, then when the time was right, made my move! Competition dropped like flies, profits rose, and life was grand. Then one day, I got a new big-wig competitor.
He is one of those types who has his hand in all soups, and had set his sights on my little pot. For the past few weeks we've been having a war for the dominant spot in my market. It's come down to almost nightly bouts of 1c markdowns for hours on end- some nights it goes so low that we've even bought stock from each other (me getting the upper hand by a few copper, though). One night, to test his wherewithal, I posted stock very low. He undercut, and I bought it all. He proceeded to buy my low priced bait within seconds. Since then, from war to war, I've become accustomed to the prices he likes to set, his posting habits, and his general posting times, but even with all this data at my disposal, he still manages to keep the steam in his engine.One of the things a lot of auctioneers don't fully appreciate is that the profitability of any market can be squashed by any one person posting near cost. Most attempts at reducing overall profitability in a market only last a short time because crafting for low profits is boring. There's a sweet spot in the middle of the trade-off between volume and profit margin where you will have the largest possible total profit. If someone deviates too far toward the volume side of this zone, the total profit of the market is reduced.
We've only had one conversation in all this time as rivals, which consisted of him asking if I would like to sell my stock to him at a low profit margin, and me asking him to sell me his stock instead. Not a single word since. My profits are slowly slipping away as he and I post undercut each other relentlessly. I'm still making a bit of profit, but where does this go? Are the 1c markdown wars worth the effort?
This can be an effective way to compete if it results in a larger share of the market going the way of the new competitor; however, it loses its advantage if another competitor is stubborn and forces the first person to split this new low-margin, high-volume business with them.
It sounds like this is what's going on here. You and your competitor have pushed each others' prices down to a place where it's barely profitable, and you're both sticking it out hoping the other chickens out first so the winner can increase prices to that sweet spot where the goods sell fairly quickly at a fair markup. As I can see it, you've made two mistakes.
"Owning" a market
Your first mistake is pigeonholing yourself into a single market that you own. You don't own markets; you rent them with a bunch of competitor as roommates. If you only work on a single market, you will always be at risk as the profit levels raise and lower and competitors come and go. You are playing the game of Who can sell the most belt buckles? when you should playing What's the most gold per hour I can make?
If you have competitors willing to sell close to profit margin, let them have their way while you focus your attention on more profitable places. Of course, this is just a ploy for them to raise their prices, but all you can do by preventing them from doing that is waste your time by forcing them to waste theirs. Move on to another market with more casual competition, and make sure that as soon as the competitor tries to raise prices to a profitable place, you're waiting there for him. TradeSkillMaster is good for this, as you won't even have to look at prices or make manual decisions. If the stock is in your bag and it's profitable enough to bother selling, it'll get listed.
Trying to own a market leads you to waste valuable time cancelling and relisting frequently, as well as having to craft a ton more goods when prices get really attractive to buyers. Unless you have absolutely no remaining profitable ways to spend your time, it's not worth babysitting auctions. Also, if he's made it clear that he'll undercut you immediately at the current price level, don't waste time undercutting 1c at a time. Undercut 5g a time, or undercut straight down to the lowest you're willing to park your stock and see whether he cuts bait. Nickel-and-diming your way down to that level will take you valuable time that you could be spending on another market.
Taking it personally
The next mistake you made was looking at the names on the Auction House. It doesn't matter who posts a batch of auctions; all that matters is the quantity, prices, and stack sizes. React to these, not the name of the alt associated with them. As I said, any one person can ruin a market by mass producing and heavily undercutting. As soon as it gets personal, this may seem like a decent option -- why bother making more gold per hour when you can win by beating someone else?
I've said before: The Auction House is not a zero-sum PvP game like chess. It's more like a imaginary casino game where the players have better odds than the house. There doesn't have to be a winner and a loser. Anyone can force someone else to lose profitability by flooding their market, but unless they can follow you around from market to market, they'll never really have an effect on you. Also, they can only delay you making a profit by investing their own time in crafting and listing. It costs them a lot more time than it costs you money.
The best way to get someone to go all kamikaze all over your favorite market is to send them a mail or tell. People rarely see past the fact that you're a competitor, so no matter what you actually say, all they're hearing is "Come at me, bro." If you want to talk to a competitor about how he prices, remember that just about the only thing that works is reverse psychology, and that's only if he's dumb enough not to ignore tells. If you legitimately want to talk to someone who plays the same optional minigame you do, don't bother trying to do it in game. Go to The Consortium like the rest of us.
Effective competition
All that said, you did pretty well, all considered. You used a very effective tactic by posting low quantity seed/bait auctions and buying up foolish undercuts. It's a good way to slap some sense into someone who is so single-minded in their pursuit of market share that they forget why they're selling goods on the AH to begin with.
You might also want to consider looking into materials arbitrage. It's borderline impossible to affect the price of base raw materials like ore and volatiles, but you can profit off volatility by buying when you know it's a good deal and keeping a small portion of your mats available for a slight premium. You can better gauge your real materials value this way -- and the better you are at picking up cheap raw materials, the better your competitors have to be to get the same cost as you.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped






Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Sorro Dec 2nd 2011 2:25PM
If the profit margins are low enough, at some point, the amount of time you spend undercutting will be greater than the time it would take to go do some dailies. Then the question is: do you want gold or do you want specifically to play the AH game.
bookworm13 Dec 2nd 2011 2:39PM
I second the advice to just ignore tells or mail from competitors unless they're offering to let you buy their remaining goods for cheap.
I broke that rule once for a guy who complained that I was an evil scourge upon the AH for intruding on his niche market. I just had to reply to ask how his market practice was somehow holier than mine but of course there was no logic to his attitude. I was lucky in that he was not very savvy and I ended up buying a lot of his postings at below cost. In the end though, any time I spent thinking about him and thinking about what to say to him was time wasted. Better to spend that time evaluating which market to make the most gold in.
Also as I'm coming to learn, no one is really a rational being. We make a lot of instant instinctive decisions and then our brain spends a lot of time rationalizing our choice. We very very rarely change our mind based on what others say or facts that contradict what we believe. But the closer we can get to being that cold calculating goblin merchant prince/princess, the better we'll do in the AH.
Jon Dec 2nd 2011 3:32PM
My crafting cost for glyphs is about 10g. I was selling them for 20g each during Black Friday weekend, in hopes of clearing up some of my massive glyph stock as I'm currently focusing on other markets. Instead of wasting time posting/undercutting I would either post three, or not post. One weekend I sold over 500 glyphs and got this gem of an email from a competitor:
http://www.taurenbell.com/index.php/2011/11/26/learn-how-to-numbers/
djsuursoo Dec 2nd 2011 4:12PM
that's beautiful.
DracMonster Dec 2nd 2011 4:30PM
Dude, there's about a dozen potential memes packed into that letter, LOL.
Quorniya Dec 2nd 2011 4:39PM
That reminds me that I once had someone tell me I "didn't understand markets" when I was advertising in trade that I'd buy maelstrom crystals for 100g each, since according to him the market price was 145g. I simply said back "well, I've bought about 50 crystals so far tonight for 100g each, so how is it that I don't understand the market if I'm getting the goods I need for the price I want?" That shut him up fast.
Kriegle Dec 2nd 2011 3:39PM
This isn't really related to to the column, but I figured here would be the place to ask it.
Did the patch break auctioneer for anyone else? The UI is totally bugged and it's not possible to use the out-of-date version. Any word on if/when they're getting a new version out?
Eamara Dec 2nd 2011 4:12PM
Yeah, auctioneer totally broke for me. Dunno when they're going to get an update out, but it made me switch to auctionator. I now prefer that addon, so in a way it was a good thing!
adamjgp Dec 2nd 2011 4:18PM
It broke it for me, but a few days ago the people at auctioneeraddon.com released a beta version that fixed it. Go to their site and download the BETA version and you should be good to go.
On a related note, I also noticed that the Fast Scan is really fast now. Previously it would take about 7 minutes for 30k auctions, now it does it in like 3 minutes.
Kram Dec 2nd 2011 6:04PM
One word, Auctionator. It works way better than Auctioneer for practically everything, but particularly for buying and selling. And it works now. After 4.2 broke auctioneer, I tried auctionator and had both that i used sometimes on different toons. After about a month i deleted auctioneer entirely. I still use beancounter, and all the datas saved, its just way easier to use.
Look into it, you can get it on curse and I assume wowace (not sure, curse user here)
Point of this story? My server has about 16k auctions usually and the fast scan takes... 8 seconds. On average. 16s
Kram Dec 2nd 2011 6:04PM
is much much less than 3 or 7 minutes. Stupid comment system.
Kriegle Dec 2nd 2011 6:28PM
Cool, I'll get auctionator right away. Appreciate the replies all.
Basil Berntsen Dec 2nd 2011 6:29PM
I'm with Kram. Once I learned that there are other addons that do all the useful stuff auctioneer does without all the useless stuff, I never looked back. Also, there's a live 4.3 version of Auctionator up on curse, and it'll be weeks yet until the Auctioneer team promotes their beta to live.
Pazazu Dec 2nd 2011 6:34PM
I also recommend auctionator. On my server the AH scan is done sometimes before my finger comes up from the mouse button, and its interface for buying and selling is very convenient.
adamjgp Dec 3rd 2011 12:22PM
Basil, your endorsement of auctionator got me to install it, and I like it very much for easily buying/pricing stacks of goods.
I use auctioneer simply for the amount of data it generates. I also use the enchantrix disenchanting data to make lots of money. I find that Auctioneer's search functionality trumps anything that I've found in auctionator. It's nice to be able to search for greens on the AH that will DE for a specific profit, and I haven't found that functionality in Auctionator. I really think that using both of the addons adds more than using one or the other.
Thundertushy Dec 2nd 2011 6:49PM
Sometimes price matching works instead of undercutting. It can communicate the idea that you're willing to share a market more so than any email to your competition could.
blazenor Dec 2nd 2011 8:27PM
Seeing that gnome getting beat still pains me.
brain314 Dec 2nd 2011 9:00PM
After I'm comfortable with the amount of gold I have, I'll sometimes play the AH to just "own" my preferred niche market for fun, whether it makes me gold or not. It's just another battleground like anything else: dungeons, BGs, AH, etc. It's just interesting to me to watch how people react to the market, how far they're willing to go, looking for patterns in behavior. So for people like me, profit isn't really a factor, although it's nice when I get some.