Gold Capped: The future of Chaos Orbs
by Fox Van Allen 
Dec 5th 2011 at 4:00PM
When patch 4.3 first launched, the market price for Chaos Orbs on my server was about 400 gold. It didn't take long for the price to fall, though -- as of Dec. 4, the average market price is about 56 gold. Frankly, that's much lower than I'd have expected them to get so soon.
Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not complaining. Quite the opposite: I'm excited. That's because low-priced Chaos Orbs are a tremendous opportunity out there for crafters of just about all stripes.
The current supply
Do you have a large supply of Chaos Orbs sitting in your bags? You're not alone.
As things currently stand, most Auction Houses seem to have a surplus of Chaos Orbs. This shouldn't be too surprising. We've known for quite some time that Chaos Orbs would be going BoE in patch 4.3. A lot of people who didn't have immediate profitable uses for the orbs (such as tailors) saved them up. And now that they can sell the things, they're trying to do just that.
Presumably, this glut in supply will be relatively short lived. There are plenty of recipes out there that require Chaos Orbs. Players aren't constructing a lot of i397 BoE gear yet, but when they do, they'll need Chaos Orbs. A lot of i365 gear from the Firelands dailies require Chaos Orbs. Tailors can even turn these orbs into Powerful Ghostly Spellthread, an enchant that will be in high demand as players score new gear in the new 5-mans, the Raid Finder, and in the regular 10- and 25-man Dragon Soul raid. The market is good at finding uses for cheap materials, and this case should prove no different.
Moving forward, Chaos Orbs should become more and more limited in supply. They drop in 5-man instances, but as players progress through Dragon Soul, they'll have less of a need to run content they outgear. Why run heroics if you're already valor capped and don't need the gear? Chaos Orbs are found in the Raid Finder as well, but in lower quantity; 25 people are all rolling for one orb. And while the Raid Finder is popular now, its popularity will likely fade when hardcore raiders no longer need the valor or lower-ilevel tier offered.
If you were stockpiling orbs for patch 4.3, you fell into the trap of thinking just like everyone else. When too many people get the same idea for making money, few people actually wind up making money off the idea. Keep that fact in mind when you see everyone rushing to sell off their stockpiles ASAP.
Current and future demand
The release of a new patch created a small uptick in demand for Chaos Orbs. As I said, they're needed for the new i397 gear. They're also still required for crafting i359, i365, and i378 gear from previous raid tiers. Sure, the demand for i365 is less now than it was this summer, but it's still a non-zero factor.
But will that demand hold up moving forward? I say yes.
Don't be fooled by the slow decent into worthlessness that Frozen Orbs experienced in Wrath. Chaos Orbs are different, because Cataclysm is different. You can't run regular instances without achieving a certain item level -- 226 for Throne of Tides and Blackrock; 272 for Stonecore and Vortex Pinnacle; and 305 for Grim Batol, HoO, and Lost City. Even now, you need a minimum ilevel of 372 to participate in the Raid Finder.
To meet these ilevel hurdles, a player could run countless regulars, countless heroics, and then slowly progress through the tiers. Or, a dude could just head to the Auction House, drop a few thousand gold, and instantly gain access. Which sounds more appealing to you?
Lower-ilevel epics will always have a market in Cataclysm. And they're far from the only useful thing you can craft with Chaos Orbs.
Profiting off Chaos Orbs
Right now, Chaos Orbs are cheap -- near 60 gold each, on average. That has created some terrific opportunities, so long as your server's economy will allow them.
For tailors, cheap Chaos Orbs means cheap Dreamcloth. The cost to make Dreamcloth with orbs is about equivalent to -- and in some cases, less than -- the cost to make Dreamcloth with volatiles. This gives tailors the ability to craft epics with abandon.
According to AHSpy.com, the cost to craft one Dreamcloth using Chaos Orbs is approximately 375 gold. This bargain-priced cloth can easily be turned around and crafted into Illusionary Bags, the i359 Belt of the Depths, and the i359 Breeches of Mended Nightmares, all of which seem to be offering modest profits right now: 700 gold on the Illusionary Bag (3,700-3,000), 900 gold on the Belt of the Depths (2,400-1,500), and 1,150 gold on the breeches (3,400-2,250).
Even bigger money can be made by blacksmiths who went through the trouble of grabbing the i365 Firelands patterns by grinding dailies. The profit margins on i365 gear are tremendous: The Masterwork Elementium Deathblade sells for 8,850 gold on average, with a material cost of only about half that.
Obviously, this gear doesn't fly off the shelf -- you'd be hard pressed to sell more than a one or two epics a day on my server, and it's a high-population realm. But still, over the course of the rest of the expansion, these markets are likely to prove highly profitable for those willing to stick with them.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped. Do you have questions about selling, reselling, and building your financial empire on the auction house? Fox and Basil are taking your questions at fox@wowinsider.com and basil@wowinsider.com.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Amaxe Dec 5th 2011 4:22PM
Interesting to see the price crash... I would have guessed they'd still be in the low thousands.
[rant]
But for me it was a case of too little too late. Now that my toons can get access to orbs, I no longer care about crafting the items they can craft.
Perhaps if this change had come in 4.2 I might have been sticking around... there was content I could solo in the molten front.
But now? I can make higher ilevel items for... not much since I don't raid.
I might be back for MoP, but getting my ilevel above 351 just so the opening zones are easier until I get some new quest items is not a good motivation.
Perhaps if others think like me, it could be another reason for why the price of orbs is so cheap.
[/rant]
Amaxe Dec 5th 2011 4:24PM
(And in case you wonder why I come back... it's simply out of boredom at work, seeing what humorous takes other commentors have on the game)
scherbaddie Dec 5th 2011 5:20PM
Maybe you could take the opportunity that 4.3 brings (raid finder) to start raiding (again?). Casual raiding is entirely possible now.
Pyromelter Dec 5th 2011 6:22PM
"I would have guessed they'd still be in the low thousands."
There's been a good solid 6 months+ of doing heroics without much to use the orbs on. I see the market heading lower.
"Moving forward, Chaos Orbs should become more and more limited in supply."
Nope, don't see it, Chaos Orbs would have spiked higher if they were available to put on the AH before 4.3. There's only so much spellthread that's needed. Frozen orbs (as well as all the crafting orbs) for wrath continually decreased as the last patch came about. Wouldn't all this demand be happening right now, as so many people have geared up through LFD and LFR? In 2-3 weeks, the bulk of the wow population will no longer have any need for them, and the price of chaos orbs will be closer to that 1s than it will to being 65g.
vendeurfrancais Dec 5th 2011 6:50PM
@pyro
except that the new recipes require 5 chaos orbs or so each, so they stay in demand. also crafters can no longer need them, so they become more spread out after instance runs so that crafters have to buy them from the ah.
Pyromelter Dec 5th 2011 7:49PM
ven... true... but then again within 2 weeks everyone is going to be completely decked out in 384 raid finder gear and 378 5-man gear.
If you're like me (and I know a lot of people like this), you aren't going to pay 10k gold to go up from 384 to 397 in ilevel. The people that would spend that kind of gold generally fall into one of 3 categories:
1. Are in a successful guild and have better gear, so don't need crafted gear.
2. Are in a successful guild and need that gear, so they gather the mats and have the guild crafter make them the item. (Also remember now all these new patterns are drops from Dragon Soul raid).
3. Are filthy stinking rich wow barons that want to buy themselves the gearscore to get into a raid - these are the only types who you can make any kind of money off of in the AH, and that is a very small market. Plus they didn't get rich by just blowing money left and right, so they might haggle with a crafter to have it made for even less.
As far as non crafters rolling on orbs, the net result doesn't change the amount of orbs in the marketplace. If anything it will increase the amount as non-crafters have absolutely no use for them except to immediately list them on the AH.
Amaxe Dec 5th 2011 9:36PM
@scherbaddie
Not at my satellite latency I can't.
Basically 4.3 is the patch which showed me to the exit of WoW.
scherbaddie Dec 5th 2011 10:12PM
Blizzard is catering to people with sensible internet connections!
MoP should be turn based so latency is not an issue!
Pyromelter Dec 5th 2011 11:14PM
Scher... An Azeroth-based turn-based Strategy RPG? Quick someone hire Nippon Ichi and make it happen!
Sarducci Dec 5th 2011 4:24PM
Dammit Fox, the first time I identify a market on my own, you go and spoil it for the whole universe the next day :P
Telwar Dec 5th 2011 4:34PM
I don't think that the Molten Front craftables will hold up for very long.
You only need a 353 item level to get into the DS 5-mans, at which point that 8k gold sword will be obsolete once you get a 2h weapon. 353 item level can be gotten simply with JP gear at this point, especially now that the 346 heroics give the same VPs as the Zuls and the DSs. That makes that sword not worth 8k, IMHO, unless you have gold flowing out your ears. It may be easier just to chain-run instances and gear up that way.
Hih Dec 5th 2011 10:57PM
This. I don't see the MF daily craftables staying overpriced for too much longer when there's better gear in easy to do 20 minute 5 mans.
I also don't see the price of Chaos Orbs increasing any time soon. The only reason they were so stupidly overpriced was for a few reasons, none of which apply anymore:
They went to crafters only. It didn't matter if the crafter was going to use the orb or not, it didn't always go to people that wanted them. Now, anyone can get them and anyone can take the 30 seconds time to put it up on the AH for 25 gold rather than gathering up the mats for a 10k gold mace to sell, which can be a pain.
The heroics before were a pain. They tended to be 30+ minutes at best, and closer to 45-60 minutes in the Zuls. They were "hard" on pugs and you would occasionally wipe, have to deal with lots of trash and lots of bosses. The new DS heroics are quick with little trash, a max of 3 bosses, and none of the mechanics are overly difficult. You can get through them in 15-25 minutes. Faster dungeons means more orbs. More orbs going to people that actually want them means more supply. Better equipment coming from easier dungeons means less demand.
trefpoid Dec 5th 2011 4:40PM
This is looking pretty good on my server, 20g each Orb and Spellthread going for 400g. I smell profit.
slim1256 Dec 5th 2011 4:54PM
Yeah - I had my eye on this, and Fox has gone and spoiled it.
Boo!
But - the value of Orbs right now seems clearly to me to be a case of pent up supply and a lull in demand. It won't surprise me at all to see it spike back up. I have no idea how high it might go, though. I'm dang sure not that smart.
Hih Dec 5th 2011 11:02PM
Frozen Orbs in Wrath went for just over (and sometime even under... >.>) their vendor price. Expect to see the same thing happen to Chaos Orbs.
xvkarbear Dec 5th 2011 5:02PM
Is anyone else experiencing Volatiles (Fire, Air, Water) being through the floor they're so cheap?
I took the chance and stocked up before 4.3.. and now some of that is cheaper then it was before the patch.
scherbaddie Dec 5th 2011 5:23PM
If you were stockpiling volatiles for patch 4.3, you fell into the trap of thinking just like everyone else. When too many people get the same idea for making money, few people actually wind up making money off the idea. Keep that fact in mind when you see everyone rushing to sell off their stockpiles ASAP.
xvkarbear Dec 5th 2011 5:28PM
Oh, I know exactly what is happening. That's why I said I "took the chance."
I was just curious if it was a wide spread thing.
Kram Dec 5th 2011 5:42PM
Volatiles are exactly the same price now as they were pre-patch, on my server. Most likely because there's nothing really new to craft yet.
I'm betting most markets are also seeing almost no sales in pvp gear yet due to the nice and early announcement about the delay this time. I've barely sold any even with almost no competition. I expect that to change this week.
We may see a bump in demand for the volatiles when that happens. Right now the only thing people are buying that needs volatiles are belt buckles? Others?
Meighan Dec 5th 2011 6:05PM
well, earth is down from around 20g to around 7 today, but that's presumably because some people only just realized they shouldn't have kept that pyrite stockpiled, and know they can make more profit selling what it prospects to than just the ore.