The post-patch 4.3 rare gem market
by Fox Van Allen 
Dec 12th 2011 at 9:00PM
Some things in life never change. Heart will always be the best band of all time. Tyler will always be dangerously underweight. And gem prices will always spike after a new content patch, often by 100% or more.
The best way to profit off of (relatively) short-lived price increases is to stockpile ahead of time. While it's clearly too late for that, there are still plenty of opportunities to profit off the rare gem market before demand dies down. It's not too late.
Regardless of whether or not you're a jewelcrafter, you've probably noticed that the market is going crazy. The red gems everyone wants are scarce enough to result in doubled (or even tripled) prices. And because people aren't gemming red because of the cost, more folks are buying orange, purple, and to some extent even blue, green, and yellow gems. Why? Socket bonuses are pretty attractive, and if you're expecting to have a piece of gear for only a week or two, why spend 300 gold, especially when you can get a decent boost out of a gem that costs a tenth of that?
A market snapshot
When looking at the gem market post-4.3, it's easy to focus on Inferno Rubies and their little brother, the Carnelian, because red gems are by far the most expensive. But if you're prospecting for gems yourself (as opposed to buying the raw gems on the AH and then cutting them), only one-sixth of the gems you'll find will be red. Indeed, determining the profitability of jewelcrafting requires you to consider the average of all six gem colors.
Rare gems World average as of Dec. 11 (courtesy AHSpy)
- Inferno Ruby 260g
- Ember Topaz 47g
- Demonseye 35g
- Amberjewel 17g
- Dream Emerald 12g
- Ocean Sapphire 12g
For those too lazy to do the math, that works out to an average price of about 64g for a blue-quality gem and about 21.5g for a green-quality one.
The gravy train
To be fair, the increase in the prices of rare gems -- especially Inferno Rubies -- shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. Any new patch that includes 5-man instances or a new raid is bound to drive demand through the roof, especially in the opening weeks. Level 85 players are getting a lot of gear upgrades, many of which need gemming. And thanks to the Raid Finder feature, some of these level 85 players are going through a series of upgrades in the same gear slot.
We see these kind of jumps in gem prices any time there's a new tier of content available. And similarly, we know these jumps are usually short lived. Prices are going to be high and stay high for several weeks. But as the patch wears on, fewer people will be getting upgrades, and gem prices will return to normal levels.
The moral of the story: Don't make any long-term decisions based on this short-lived spike in demand. Jewelcrafting isn't any more profitable now over the long term.
Profits again gated behind work
If you're looking for an easy score as a jewelcrafter, you may want to forget it. Lazy JCs can make money, sure, but the real money is had through prospecting. It's similar to inscription that way.
For that reason, jewelcrafting tends to be a profitable endeavor at most times of year. It's hard (and boring) for one person to satiate an entire server's demand for gems, even if jewelcrafting is all he does. That makes it an easy market to get into for newcomers.
Jewelcrafting 101
Most of the Cataclysm-era jewels you see on the Auction House were born through the process of prospecting -- that is, taking Cataclysm-era ore and destroying them to find raw gems. There are three different types of Cataclysm ore, and they all prospect into gems at different ratios:
- Obsidium Ore ~24% chance for each common gem; ~1.25% chance for each rare
- Elementium Ore ~18% chance for each common gem; ~5% chance for each rare
- Pyrite Ore ~18% chance for each common gem; ~7.5% chance for each rare; 100% chance for one to three Volatile Earth
- Obsidium Ore 5.76 commons and 0.3 rares per prospected stack
- Elementium Ore 4.32 commons and 1.2 rares per prospected stack
- Pyrite Ore 4.32 commons, 1.8 rares, and 2 Volatile Earth per prospect
- Obsidium 130.3g prospected - 88g raw = 42.3g profit
- Elementium 169.7g prospected - 88g raw = 81.7g profit
- Pyrite 211.3g prospected - 150g raw = 61.3g profit
If you're spending your time prospecting low-priced Elementium, then you're probably going to see a 100% return on your investment. That's pretty darn similar to the return of milling.
But don't just jump into the deep end without understanding the risk. While the most popular gems -- Inferno Rubies, Carnelians, and Ember Topaz -- will sell all day long, less-popular gems like Dream Emeralds and Alicite may fester on the AH, even at competitive prices.
It's also important to consider each step of the profitability of each step of the jewelcrafting process individually. If ore prices spike, it may become unprofitable to prospect, even if the secondary step of cutting gems is a moneymaker.
Finally, if you do decide to take the leap and try to cash in on high gem prices, take a look at some addons to minimize the time you spend on the most tedious steps. For prospecting, I really like the Panda addon. Just make sure to turn on your auto-looting option if you're spending any length of time prospecting. It's in the Interface menu: Interface > Controls > Auto Loot.
Maximize your profits with more advice from Gold Capped. Do you have questions about selling, reselling, and building your financial empire on the auction house? Fox and Basil are taking your questions at fox@wowinsider.com and basil@wowinsider.com.
Filed under: Economy, Gold Capped
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Titusx Dec 12th 2011 9:05PM
Ive been cutting rares for 100 g per gem without even asking more than a tip. I keep an eye on trade chat and make more gold than doing dailies.
Stargazer Dec 12th 2011 9:53PM
When figuring the return on Pyrite did you factor in the value of the Volatile Earth's?
VioletArrows Dec 12th 2011 10:00PM
I wish I'd 1) saved more of my 353 armor, and 2) grabbed the cut rubies a few days ago when I saw them that cheap. The AH uncut rubies cost more than the cut ones, and even then the cuts fluctuate around 5-700g a piece. I'd thought I'd calculated that all the upgrades would be enough that my dps wouldn't suffer from having a few pieces ungemmed, instead it took a nosedive. >_$lt; And because the AH goblins on my server are batshit insane (wool cloth is always about 100g a stack to give an example), who knows when this will blow over.
Evelinda Dec 12th 2011 10:03PM
On my server, elementium ore is just over 50g per stack, and cut inferno rubies are about 250 each. If I can get an inferno ruby from 1 in 25 prospects, i'm breaking even JUST FROM INFERNO RUBIES. Every other gem is pure profit, which is just... It's just great.
Meccaryn Dec 12th 2011 10:10PM
i disagree, fox
true - heart might be a great band?
but greatest? bon jovi. period.
Pyromelter Dec 13th 2011 12:46AM
I'm sure fox will be pleased to know that there is someone out there with even more lame taste in music than him.
Artificial Dec 13th 2011 3:12AM
Oh Pyro... "Shot through the heart, and you're to blame..."
joscmoe Dec 13th 2011 8:44AM
Heart and Bon Jovi are great bands but
You wanted the best, you got the best!! The hottest band in the world!!! Kiss!!!!!
Duts Dec 13th 2011 12:22PM
"true - heart might be a great band?
but greatest? xxx xxxx Queen. period."
there! i fixed that for ya!
Andrew Dec 12th 2011 10:15PM
Also worth mentioning under "Jewelcrafting 101" is that obsidium is also a good investment for JC/Alch toons because the higher rates of common gems means more possible transmutations into shadowspirit gems. And yeah, while that first week was sweet, it seems like a quarter of my server's population has leveled a JC just to try to cash in on this patch. Too bad they might never make back that 10k they spent to level it (now THERE'S an idea for making money off of mining next expansion...).
Pyromelter Dec 13th 2011 12:54AM
The post-patch gold rush is almost over. You have maybe 1 week to bleed this market, and then it's going to dry up, 2-3 weeks post-patch is where you make the big bucks.
You can still be profitable after that, but you start looking at 10-20% profit margins instead of 100-200%.
Making money off of leveling JC'ers is a time-tested way to go btw, I think the BC era stuff can get super pricey if you're willing to mine outland for a bit.
Anyway, the real AH tycoons have been having their Christmas sales explode the past couple of weeks, and the party is almost over. Barely worth it to try to enter the market at this point IMO. The next huge step will be when 5.0 hits, and for that, you probably want to make sure your Scribe has every single possible glyph, because with all the class changes come huge glyph changes, and the possibility of selling glyphs at wholly unreasonable levels.
Luke Dec 13th 2011 1:53AM
I've found that prospecting Elementium Ore and turning all of the common gems into Shadowspirit is the best way to go. They yield just enough gems that it makes Obsidium less desirable given the amount of rares that drop. Doubly so with a transmute spec alchemist. This even includes the prices carnelians are selling for, because most of the meta gem cuts are selling for 400g on average. Sometimes higher, but rarely lower. I've been netting 10k a day with little time investment.
It's ludicrous!
But also awesome.
Jabadabadana Dec 13th 2011 8:22AM
Gems are at a price, that it was well worth the 500g and 6 hours to finally level JC high enough on an alt to blow up elementium for ore.
I think this is the first time in playing WoW that I've ever felt that compelled to level a profession, just to not get reemed by the people with it.
Nina Katarina Dec 13th 2011 8:42AM
OK, I downloaded Panda and tried to set it up, but I'm lost and it keeps telling me that it needs 5 elementium to prospect. I have over 200 elementium in my bags. Is there something I need to do to make it work?
Scard Dec 13th 2011 9:00AM
I had the same problem at first. From what I understand, panda scans your bags from the first slot to the last slot, looking for ore to prospect. If that first slot has
Phorx Dec 13th 2011 9:01AM
that means that the first stack the addon found has 1-4 ore in it. Move that to the end of your bag space and you should be ok
Scard Dec 13th 2011 9:03AM
Good god, WTB new comment system. Nice comment fail there WoW Insider. To finish my sentence:
If that first slot has less than 5 ore, you'll get the error you mentioned. Move that stack of less than 5 ore to the last slot in your bags and try it again.
Scard Dec 13th 2011 9:02AM
Nice comment fail there WoW Insider. To finish my sentence:
If that first slot has less than 5 ore, you'll get the error you mentioned. Move that stack of less than 5 ore to the last slot in your bags and try it again.
George Dec 13th 2011 9:17AM
Brilliant Inferno Rubies are currently going for 450g on my realm. Demand is high, supply is low, but it seems to only be an issue with the Brilliant cuts, while other red gems are going for a fraction of the price.
JCs, please cut more Brilliant Inferno Rubies. You will make a lot of gold, and supply will increase, helping everyone.
tobiasmoller Dec 13th 2011 9:54AM
I just have to say this, i havent yet tried posting at specific times yet. Im going to save my infernos now untill tomorrow about raidtime. And see how it goes.
I have read lots about "when in the week to sell" but actually never followed it. Going to see if i can resist and hold on untill server resets to make some extra. :)