Scattered Shots: Hunter predictions for a new year
by Brian Wood 
Dec 29th 2011 at 8:00PM
Another year of hunting is almost at an end, and that means it's time to dig into the vast past of December 2010, when Cataclysm was fresh and shiny and new and SV hunters were dominating every DPS chart, a time before aspect dancing and when pets still had a happiness system (kind of). That's right, it's time to dust off my 2011 hunter predictions and see how I did. It's also time to make new predictions for the state of hunters going forward in 2012 and take some guesses at what's going to happen with the class in the tumultuous year ahead.
Looking back at some of the changes, it's interesting to see the patterns and similarities in the class over time. SV is again the top DPS spec as it was a year ago -- only now instead of blowing away all comers with pretty demonstrably overpowered DPS, SV is at best middle of the pack. In practice, the hunter class is one of the poorest DPSers this tier.
SV got nuked to death in patch 4.0.6, much as an overpowered BM spec got over-nerfed into oblivion in patch 3.0.8 in early Wrath, except that while overnerfed, SV got it much gentler than BM did back in the day. The nerf bat is hitting a bit softer these days. Let's hope that's a trend that continues.
2011 hunter predictions review
OK, let's take a look at my predictions for hunters in 2011, made in December of 2010. As I recall, I tried to make some pretty aggressive predictions in addition to safe ones, and I'm curious to see what they were. I haven't looked at these in a year!
SV gets nerfed. This was an easy prediction at the time. SV was topping every chart and doing so by huge margins. You want to complain about fire mages now? That's nothing to what SV hunters were doing. There were other overperforming classes, of course, and they got nerfs too.
Unfortunately, SV hunters got nerfed pretty substantially more than they really should have been, and over the course of the year, we saw the gradual retraction of some SV nerfs until only the mastery nerf (15% agility bonus down to 10%) remains.
MM and BM get buffed. This one we knew was coming at the time. I predicted that we'd see a buff to Kill Command, which would later get nerfed again. We did see the buff, but it stuck. We also saw a massive buff to Aimed Shot as well as Chimera Shot, which combined with the huge SV nerfs had every serious raider switching specs to MM for most of the year.
SV remains the top hunter DPS spec. OK, I snuck by on this one. SV is the top hunter DPS spec once again but did not stay there throughout Cataclysm. SV only reclaimed its position in patch 4.3. I think I get only partial credit for this prediction.
There will be two hunter specs very near the top DPS spec. The idea here was that instead of having one clearly dominant spec, we'd have two specs close to each other, though one would be in the lead. This I nailed, with MM and SV both close in DPS and seeing decent representation throughout Cataclysm. Of course, I also went out on a limb and predicted that the two specs would be SV and BM, because I thought BM was assured a decent spot after Wrath, but BM was definitely the third throughout Cataclysm, though not that distant. So I got the vague prediction right and the specific one half wrong.
PvP remains in a rough spot for hunters throughout the year. I predicted minor adjustments, but nothing major changed, with Camouflage remaining mostly useless. I feel like I nailed this one on the head. Happily, we did get some significant acknowledgement from Blizzard that hunter PvP is a problem that needs to be addressed -- but alas, we aren't going to see it addressed until Mists of Pandaria.
The BM bonus ability is changed away from Intimidation. Swung a little too early on that one -- a clear miss. But we did hear that it's changing to Kill Command in MoP.
Counterattack is finally removed from the SV tree. Miss again, and again will be happening in MoP.
Pet collars are introduced into the game. Wishful thinking that didn't come near happening at all. But I'm not giving up!
Predictions for 2012
Well, I did pretty OK for my 2011 predictions. Most of the ones I missed were only partial misses, and I got about as much right as I got wrong. But this year is going to be ridiculously hard, because I predict that we'll see MoP in 2012 -- and that is certain enough that it doesn't count as a prediction.
That means that to really predict the full year, I'm going to have to make some wild guesses about what might happen to hunters in Mists of Pandaria. So fair warning, those are going to look more like guesses than predictions.
- Hunters get a small PvE buff to help Dragon Soul damage. This is actually a wilder a prediction than it sounds. From the data we have right now, hunters are low on the DPS parses, but not very low. Combine that with the fact that the developers are working a lot on the next expansion, and it's easy to leave it be and say things will be better in the expansion. After all, how would you spend your development time: buff a class that's just a few percent below median, or fix the MoP bug that gives warriors three arms? But I think that hunters will make enough noise that we'll get a nice little buff for raid damage. The easiest way would be just extending the raid AP buff to hunters as well as melee, so we'll get 20% AP from the buff rather than 10%.
- Hunter PvP continues to be poor throughout Cataclysm. This is a crazy-safe prediction. Sorry, PvPers.
- Mists of Pandaria alpha and beta launch in February or March. I think we're going to see this far sooner than most people are prediction. In fact ...
- Mists of Pandara releases in the summer of 2012. I think we're going to see it that soon. If I had to really guess, I'd predict a July release.
- Hunters complain mightily about the beta changes. Wait, no, that doesn't even count as a prediction. The only thing guaranteed in any expansion beta is that tons of players will complain about everything.
- BM gets Stampede. An ability to release five (non-controllable) pets at once as a DPS burst on a long cooldown is something we just have to have. I think it will go to BM only as a spec ability.
- Hunters have three actual talent choices. Of the six talents we get to spend in MoP, I'm predicting that half of them will have a "right" answer for most raiding and heroic situations, and half of them will be legitimate anything goes choices. I really hope I'm wrong and they're all choices, but I have a hunch it won't work out.
- Pets get a talent system similar to hunters. I talked about how it could work last week, and I'm betting that Blizzard goes for the cool way of doing it, rather than just removing pet talents entirely.
- PvP gets much better for hunters. We know minimum range is going away, and I don't think that's the only PvP improvement we'll see. I also predict that SV returns as the dominant hunter PvP spec, with BM doing well too. I think MM will fall to the least popular PvP spec.
- Pet collars are introduced. These are nifty ways of customizing your pet a bit further with no graphic (you don't see them on the pet). They are not dropped as raid loot but are only crafted.
- BM is the top DPS spec. Hey, they haven't had their moment in the sun since The Burning Crusade.
- We get a hunter legendary. It's about time. I'm predicting a legendary that is for hunters only -- no other classes. And not some sissy bow, either.
- The world does not end.
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Filed under: Hunter, (Hunter) Scattered Shots
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
ianshortridge Dec 29th 2011 12:39PM
hunters already had a legendary weapon- a bow. other classes could use it too but it was meant for hunters.
Frostheim Dec 29th 2011 12:45PM
Yup, at the very end of BC -- which I believe makes us the class that has gone longest without a legendary.
Marbles Dec 29th 2011 8:59PM
The problem with Thori'dal was several fold:
a) it dropped from the very last boss of the expansion, making it effectively worthless for PvE - the hunter knew they could kill everything without it. Atiesh shared this problem (though could make an argument about the Karazahn portal being useful, but I won't).
b) the acquisition method was non-existent. It simply did or did not drop. The Blades of Azzinoth had the same problem, except doubly so (being two drops).
c) the story was non-existent. Related to the acquistion method, except there was no really viable reason for Kil'jaeden to have the bow in the first place.
d) no interesting attributes; like procs or auras. Most of the others had some proc on it, bar Atiesh which had various party auras instead. Thori'dal just had "doesn't require ammunition", which was far from interesting.
Eyhk Dec 29th 2011 9:04PM
It didn't stop them from rolling on any of it though ;-)
Matt Dec 29th 2011 9:06PM
@Frostheim
If you don't count Feral Druids, then yes, Hunters have been the longest. If you count Feral Druids (since caster staves are useless), then the Feral Druid is the longest... NEVER. There has NEVER been a legendary that a Feral Druid could use. No other spec in the entire game has NEVER had a legendary.
Please please please let MoP have a legendary AGILITY staff or polearm. Feral Druids need some love! (and Monks would be able to use it as well -- hunters couldn't b/c they won't have melee weapons anymore in MoP)
Frostheim Dec 29th 2011 9:09PM
No class has gone longer without a legendary than hunters. You can certainly make arguments about various specs -- though at that point I'll go a step further and point out that since I refuse to use bows, I have also never, ever had access to a legendary (sure, I could have trained bows and sucked it up, and so too could the ferals have sucked it up and respecced -- I mean, they had plenty of notice that the legendary was coming, as did I).
Eyhk Dec 29th 2011 9:15PM
@Marbles It may not sound interesting to you NOW that NOBODY has ammo, but back when we all had ammo and had to have it crafted or rep or whatever nonsense to get the highest dps ammo, this was huge and a tell tale of things to come.
But yes, it was mostly a status symbol and had no real effect on progression raiding, being discarded by the next expansion's tier of epics without ever seeing much light, just like Ateish, Shadowmourne somewhat, and presumably the rogue legendary daggers, although the bonuses sound too fun to ever leave the bag. Compared to these, Sulfuras, Thunderfury, the Warglaives, Val'anyr, and Dragonwrath have the crap used out of them for at least an entire progression raiding tier.
Eyhk Dec 29th 2011 9:21PM
I actually think that there might be a legendary agi pole arm for feral druids and monks in the works for MoP, just like the Death Knight class had a legendary within it's own introduction expansion. Hunters are losing the melee slot so they may not make the cut, but the bright side is that if they ever do make a hunter legendary, it will be ONLY for hunters, now that ranged weapons are no more.
NostraThomas Dec 29th 2011 10:36PM
Frostheim:
Enhancement shaman.
Jetstream Dec 29th 2011 10:50PM
@NostraThomas
During Vanilla, Sulfuras: Hand of Ragnaros was BiS for enhancement shammies, at least in PVP.
Skarn Dec 30th 2011 12:50AM
@Eyhk,
I thought it was pretty cruel at the time actually. It was neat, but also lame. A cool idea to no longer need ammo, but it had zero combat benefit (unless you tended to run out of ammo). Compared to the very recent Warglaives with their bonus that was so awesome it was practically required to have at least one set in raid in order to kill Brutallus to even TRY to kill Kil'jaeden.
Even beyond that, the moment you equipped the bow you KNEW that it was temporary. That the sweet, sweet glory of no-ammo was going to leave you in Wrath. It mocked us from the very start. Awesome that they finally changed it for Cata, but it was a cruel, cruel joke to have it on the legendary bow.
Without a doubt, Thori'dal was the lamest legendary of them all. Many suffered from some of the same issues, but Thori'dal had EVERY issue. Blarg. I'm not sure if we're better off than Feral druids or not. We technically had a legendary, it looked awesome and I'll admit I still want it so I can stick it in my bank, but it was so very lame.
cjjh2000 Dec 30th 2011 7:40AM
I kinda hope they'll do something strange. Like a 2-handed staff that's also two 1-handed maces. Agi ofc. Enhancement will get it only as two 1-handers. Feral/Guardian will get it only as 2-handed staff. Monks get it interchangeable. Would be an interesting prospect of a legendary IMO.
Lennox Dec 30th 2011 1:12PM
I think that having at least one legendary be monk themed is a pretty safe bet, and maybe even two, if we get two this expansion. Monks are a major feature of MoP and the class/spec spread that has not had viable legendaries matches up very well with the spec options for monks. So staff for feral druids/Brewmasters and Fist for Monk DPS/Enhance Shaman.
If that totally does not work out, then I expect a tanking Legendary of some kind, the last option there was Thunderfury.
Besides, if there is a Hunter Legendary, it will most likely be a bow, going with how the items have been designed in Cataclysm. Yes, even though going from where Pandaria is based one and you should expect lots of crossbows and guns, the designers will still make the top weapons bows.
Kazador Dec 29th 2011 12:46PM
I hope you're right about BM being good at PVE and perhaps PVP in MoP. Of course, you thought that would happen over a year ago, and BM still is weak in PVE, PVP, and now isn't even best for soloing.
BM is currently farther below median DPS than fire mages are above median DPS. So every time you mention the need for a nerf to Fire mages, please also state that BM needs a buff of similar proportions.
Focusing only on the need to nerf mages seems strange coming from someone who writes primarily about hunters, especially given the very weak performance of BM in all aspects of the game right now.
By the way, these prediction articles are fun, and I hope you'll keep doing this each year. I really hope more of your predictions are right this year, as I like them all!
Stilhelm Dec 30th 2011 3:05AM
BM is so low because top hunters aren't playing it. There are various reasons for that, but one of them is that the rotation is clunky. I've raided as BM, and come pretty close to what I can do as MM or SV, on and off in each tier this expansion. I just don't like BM so after a couple fights I switch back and never use it again until I've forgotten that I find it annoying.
In fact, while my gear was not good enough to get a ranking as MM or SV, I was very close to ranking when I went BM for H Baleroc, and in fact would have ranked if I didn't have to use a cunning pet for a specific buff instead of a ferocity pet. For BM, that choice costed 2500 dps, and I was only about 1K below ranking. So due primarily to gear issues, I was 15% below getting a ranked log as MM or SV, I could have easily ranked as BM, which makes it obvious that it is simply because the top hunters aren't playing as BM.
Survival has been viable all expansion, even after the 4.0.6 nerfs. In fact, if you were in normal raid gear, SV was pretty much even, with MM pulling away only with heroics gear (weapon, primarily). In fact, I always found it amusing to pug into BH and embarrass other MM hunters as survival, which always left them confused as to how their "superior" spec was beaten so soundly by a spec everyone "knew" was inferior.
Luotian Dec 30th 2011 10:45AM
Seconded most of that. I have a BM hunter that I play rarely, and her DPS is comparable if not over what my MM could do at the same level.
But the BM rotation is boring as sin, and makes me feel about as strong as a wet tissue so I never use it for something I really care about.
I don't imagine there are enough hunters that feel differently to give BM a proper representation.
Mechakisc Dec 29th 2011 1:15PM
Next legendary is going to be an agility staff or polearm, obv usable only by monks and druids.
It will go to our tank, as the only feral in our raid, unless our raid leader has me switch to monk like he had me switch to rogue for Dragon Soul (we had two hunters in our 10 man raid until Dragon Soul).
I miss the pew pew, but if you have to switch to melee, rogue is as good a choice as any. Lots of similar feeling utility for sure.
pepprdgefarm Dec 29th 2011 6:25PM
I would agree that BM is still underrepresented at the upper tiers in pvp, but otherwise its well-represented in the pvp community. In arena, BM jungle cleave is very popular this patch, and I've def seen KFC/PHD teams running with a BM hunter. The sheer amount of burst they bring to the table is impressive.
coville Dec 29th 2011 2:16PM
LEGENDARY GUN 2012!!!
I predict that the removal of minimum range will make Hutners so OP in PvP that we get nerfed after all the other classes cry to Blizzard about how awesome Hunters are.
Kazador Dec 29th 2011 3:13PM
Removal of minimum range will help hunters in PVP, but if that is the only improvement that is made to hunter PVP I expect hunters would still be last in representation in competitive PVP. It certainly won't make hunter OP, or even "median" in PVP. I hope they simply take the time to fix a number of buggy talents and abilities, and give hunters a little better survivability.