Patch 5.4 patch notes
Virtual Realms feature revealed
The Proving Grounds are coming
The latest patch 5.4 newsOl' Grumpy and the Dragon Soul nerf
by Matthew Rossi 
Jan 19th 2012 at 4:00PM
- The Raid Finder is head and shoulders above normal mode raiding in terms of popularity. 35% of level 85 players have completed Raid Finder vs. 4% completing normal mode; that's a huge, huge shift. Keep in mind that Blizzard has more exacting statistics available internally, but this serves as an indicator of a trend.
- Fewer than 200,000 players have finished normal mode Dragon Soul. I'll admit, I found this shocking. With the exception of Ultraxion and Madness, I found Dragon Soul to be undertuned and figured many more players would have completed the raid than this. One commenter on Twitter even blasted me for my elitism, when I had been under the impression I'm a fairly middle-of-the-road raider. These numbers bear that out.
- Over 1 million players have finished Dragon Soul in the Raid Finder. Both this statistic and the preceding one are as of the end of December 2011. But how ever they've changed and how ever the more precise Blizzard statistics play out, this is still a very strong indicator that normal mode Dragon Soul isn't the cakewalk some of us thought it was, myself included to some extent.
- Almost 800,000 players finished normal Firelands, and the majority of them did so after the nerf to Firelands. I think this fairly well speaks for itself.
The waveform of raiding collapses
What I take from all of this is that Blizzard is smarter than I am. The devs have got a long way to go to be more irascible than me, but if they say they're seeing a lot of guilds hitting a roadblock in normal mode, I believe them. It's tempting to reply that that's what the Raid Finder is for -- and I know I did so myself -- but I think we're missing the point with respect to Raid Finder and difficulty levels. Normal mode raiding isn't meant to be where the true tests of player skill are found; that's what heroic modes are for. Normal mode raiding is meant to be the normal level of difficulty for a coordinated group. It's meant neither to be easy nor to be particularly difficult.
The reason the Raid Finder is less challenging is not entirely so players with less time to min-max and work on strats can see the content. It's also because it has to absorb the stresses of raiding with a complete pickup group lacking voice communication, without being able to assume the group will have all the tools a normal raiding guild brings to bear.
Therefore, it's actually counterproductive to bring up the Raid Finder when discussing this normal/heroic mode progressive nerf. This is a move designed to benefit existing raid groups that are, in fact, banging their heads against Dragon Soul and not progressing. These groups exist -- and in fact, they're the majority of guilds raiding Dragon Soul right now.
Those of us who are working on heroic content may not be able to see this clearly. We rolled into Dragon Soul in 391 gear, worked our way through, and moved on. We didn't hit Ultraxion and stop. We didn't hit Blackthorn and stop. And we're less than 4% of the playerbase. Even if you just consider the 800,000 players who finished Firelands, only a quarter of them are done with normal Dragon Soul. This means when players make comments like "Dragon Soul is easier than Firelands," they're not at all supported by the statistics. As many people had completed Firelands pre-nerf as have now completed Dragon Soul. Pre-nerf Firelands was, statistically speaking, on par with and not harder than Dragon Soul is right now.
The Raid Finder: Not a panacea for all ills
This means that for the purposes of discussing these changes, not only does the Raid Finder have no real bearing on them (because the people raiding Dragon Soul on normal are the ones having trouble progressing, not the Raid Finder groups), but the idea that Dragon Soul is somehow already an easy raid needs to be dispelled. Like it or not, the 200,000 of us who have completed it and moved on to heroics are not relevant. We're a fraction of a fraction of the playerbase. We've done the content and moved on.
This change is for people who haven't moved forward but who want to. Not only are they paying the same money we are, and not only are there more of them (at least four times as many, based on Firelands progression), but they have an implicit expectation based on their Firelands experience to be able to complete this content. In many cases, the roadblock fights they're hitting are gear checks they can't get past. This is because they don't play like we do.
It isn't how I play the game, I admit. It took me a lot of gentle prodding to realize that my spending literally hours trying to work out a valid fury gearing strategy was in fact unusual. I enjoy that kind of thing, but not everyone does or should have to just because I do. Telling established groups of friends who have been promised all expansion long that Cataclysm would allow them to raid in just that fashion that they have to go with a Raid Finder PUG if they can't progress is untenable. It's a return to the days when there was real raiding and kid's table raiding, which most of them thought they'd finally escaped.
This change benefits these players. It's intended to benefit them and is designed so that a majority of raiders gets the maximum benefit from it. It is the most good to the most people possible. That is why it will be manually monitored and implemented, because if a mere 5% reduction in mob and boss health gets those players past their roadblocks, then it will have done its job. It won't be necessary to implement anything else. In the end, a decision intended to benefit as many as possible is one I can accept, even if I don't personally need it.
World of Warcraft: Cataclysm has destroyed Azeroth as we know it; nothing is the same! In WoW Insider's Guide to Cataclysm, you can find out everything you need to know about WoW's third expansion, from leveling up a new goblin or worgen to breaking news and strategies on endgame play.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Raiding, Cataclysm
Reader Comments (Page 4 of 8)
Pyromelter Jan 19th 2012 4:31PM
Once a raid is 2 months old, anyone who complains about nerfs really needs to lighten up. It would be different if top guilds were like 3/8 heroic and we were like 1.5 weeks in. At this point, nerfing content just makes it more accessible, not just for raid teams banging their head against a wall, but also for those raiders who have lesser-geared alts and would like to complete DS on normal and heroic. I seriously doubt that back in the wrath days I would have had 4 different characters with Kingslayer without the ICC stacking buff (only had one Kingslayer, my main, before the full buff was implemented).
Jorges Jan 19th 2012 4:31PM
Finally someone that sees and understands the whole picture. Thank you sir.
Verethrine Jan 19th 2012 4:33PM
My group is one of these groups that the nerf is aimed at. We haven't finished Dragon Soul. We're at Madness so it may not be the _exact_ demographic but all of us think this is too soon and unnecessary. Did we hit a roadblock on Ultraxion? Yes. Did we hit a roadblock on Blackhorn? Yes. Even with road blocks, we did manage to beat them. Just because we haven't beaten Madness, doesn't mean we can't or aren't going to given enough time. It's been about 2 months, 2 weeks of which were slow raid weeks because of the holiday. We took a break for the holidays. Is that being taken into consideration when looking at where people stand on progression? That's 2 weeks of anywere from normal progression to no progression.
I'm not saying don't nerf it at all, just that it's too soon. We're working steadily towards defeating the final boss. Just because we haven't done it quite yet, doesn't mean we aren't going to. Just give it a month or two more.
And as a side thing, if they're nerfing it like this already, they'd better be getting out Pandaria quick. Like beta at the beginning of February, release May/June.
Imnick Jan 19th 2012 4:36PM
Then speak to an NPC just inside the door and turn it off.
The debuff is optional, if you wish to continue without it then you can.
Verethrine Jan 19th 2012 5:08PM
You've said that at least 2 times now, both to people that were saying it's too soon. Turning it off has nothing to do with what we're trying to say. The point is, it's a month (or, I guess by the time it actually goes out) is a few weeks too early. Yes, we could turn it off, but that's beside the point and a cop-out response. There has been 2 major holidays within 2 weeks during the time it's been out that takes people away reducing how much these kind of players can play the game. 2 months for groups that only raid, maybe, 3 times a week isn't enough time for many to progress. We aren't saying don't nerf them at all. We're just saying, it's feels, and in our prospective, it's too soon. Give it a few more weeks. That's all we're saying.
Rajah Jan 19th 2012 6:05PM
The power to give it a few more weeks is entirely in your hands! Replying that the nerf is totally optional is not at all a cop-out response; it is precisely on point. As you've noted, your guild is in perfect agreement that you do not want or need the nerf yet. Then don't use it, it's that simple. To be honest, I don't think you are in the target demographic for the nerf. As has been stated numerous times, the nerf is aimed squarely at those guilds who feel they have hit a roadblock and cannot progress further without assistance.
I have yet to read a cogent comment supporting the position that it is too soon for this nerf and why the ability to eliminate the nerf completely is unacceptable. Please help me to understand your objections.
eel5pe Jan 19th 2012 6:32PM
You haven't read a SINGLE cogent comment? I thought he was being pretty clear. In any case here are mine:
1) Despite what others are reading into what he's saying, he's only speaking for himself not for his whole group. And that's the major problem with the "you can always turn it off" argument and why it IS a cop-out response: a person's distaste for the buff is unlikely to be shared by his groupmates. Unless you happen to be in a guild where everyone agrees with your POV or you just rule your guild with an iron fist, you're stuck in the unenviable position of trying to convince 9/24 players that it would be better if you delayed your progression. Good luck.
2) Downing the content with a slight buff can be a bit... rankling. Imagine you're a kid who's been saving up several months to buy Pandaland, doing odd jobs around the neighborhood, and then a few days before it drops (hopefully sooner rather than later), your mom says she'll just buy it for you (now go do your damn homework). Wouldn't you feel a bit bad? You're not going to say no because hey, it's free money, but you still feel like you're wimping out a bit. That's what this buff is like, and why I really hope we finish Madness before, rather than after the buff.
Imnick Jan 19th 2012 10:20PM
I still don't understand why you can't turn it off.
You use the word "Our", so this is the opinion of your whole raid group? Then surely you won't have a problem with turning it off, because you all agree!
The nerf is optional!
Your /whole group/ feels that the nerfs come to soon? Turn it off.
Downing the content with a buff is rankling? Turn it off.
The problem indeed comes if your entire group does not agree, but you phrased all of your responses in a way that implies that this is not an issue. If this is only your opinion, maybe it'd be better to use the word "my" rather than "we" and "our" as you have been. If this is not solely your opinion then there is literally no reason for you to leave the debuff on, and you have yet to present me with one.
I don't see why the fact that you can turn it off is "beside the point" at all. You haven't mentioned trying to compete with anyone, only your own personal sense of group satisfaction. And if that would be increased by not having a debuff, remove the debuff.
RedMosquito Jan 19th 2012 4:38PM
Amazingly written, Mr. Rossi. I have to admit I was totally on the fence on this one; I could see good arguments from both people who were for and against the nerf. But you painted a hell of a picture with that article, and now I definitely share the opinion that the nerf is, overall, a positive thing for the game.
ccwizard Jan 19th 2012 4:39PM
I'm in a 10 man raiding guild 4/8 and we should be 5/8 before the nerf. I find that 90% of people complaining about the nerf are people running Heroic Raid. I got one question to ask them why do u care if they Nerf regular mode, You already clear it so who cares.
If you are so Elitism then just turn off the Nerf and clear the content normally.
LFR is good for running on off nite not to run with 10 guildies and 15 strangers isn't the same as regular 10 man.
Nadia Jan 19th 2012 5:32PM
This!
If you're a guild with one 10 man team that's downed relevant content with the same toons since BC, running Raid Finder is not fun.
guest42 Jan 19th 2012 6:37PM
"I find that 90% of people complaining about the nerf are people running Heroic Raid. I got one question to ask them why do u care if they Nerf regular mode"
Because if you suck we don't want you to be able to finish it.
Harsh I know, but that is the reason. Now you can stop being confused why the elitists are so against LFR and raid nerfs.
Shade Jan 19th 2012 7:40PM
@guest42
Why? Judging off of past arguments I've had with the elitist mindset, I can tell you that whatever you plan on saying next will be met with another "Why?" So to save time...
Take any modification of content. Buffs to player stats, nerfs to boss stats, simplification of mechanics, hotfixes of things that worked wrong but people managed to get around, whatever. When Blizzard enacts those changes, you will retain your position as #824 most-progressed guild and #138 best rogue in the game, or whatever the case may be.
The players who were stuck behind you aren't going to leapfrog you and end up at a higher level of progression than you, because you're better skilled.
Your gear will be better until the low-skilled players have had Heroic Deathwing on farm for months, because you were getting geared weeks before guild #2385 was.
The timestamp on your DW kill achievement will always be earlier than theirs.
You will always out-perform them on meter comparison even given the exact same gear because you've had more time to perfect and gain experience with your rotation and fight mechanics.
You will have more gold than them because you will have started selling VP items and epic gem drops on the AH before they did and will have stopped buying gems/enchants before they do.
What effect of the nerfs diminishes your glory?
guest42 Jan 19th 2012 9:15PM
Shade
The same reason that a thru-hiker on the Applachian Trail would be pissed off to see a guy zoom by on a dirtbike with a trail map in his hand.
His own experience is not changed, but the institution itself has been cheapened by the presence of the 'dirtbike hiker'.
Imnick Jan 19th 2012 10:25PM
"The same reason that a thru-hiker on the Applachian Trail would be pissed off to see a guy zoom by on a dirtbike with a trail map in his hand."
Uh... they wouldn't be?
What kind of person taking a hike sees another guy going past and thinks "Hey! That guy's on a bike! Fuck that guy!" ?
Is this a thing that happens because it completely confuses me, why would anyone do that?
Spellotape Jan 20th 2012 3:52AM
@guest42
That is ridiculous. I'm a heroic raider and I don't consider myself "elitest" nor do I have anything against these incoming nerfs; for the people they are intended for it will help keep the raiding game from becoming impossibly frustrating - for everyone else ... it makes no difference.
For anyone who considers themselves an "elitest" and hates the idea of these nerfs you are way out of the race already - it's over. If you take the buff you'll be on equal footing for any server first competition (if that's your gripe), otherwise it is irrelevant and you can turn it on/off depending on your own whim.
tgaw Jan 20th 2012 5:35AM
@guest42
You said "The same reason that a thru-hiker on the Applachian Trail would be pissed off to see a guy zoom by on a dirtbike with a trail map in his hand." As a AT section hiker, (some year a full attempt) I've got to share with you some trail wisdom.
"Hike your own Hike"
You're out there hiking for your own reasons, seting your own pace, your own goals and I'll keep my own. Enjoy your journey and let others enjoy theirs. The same should go for your raiding. Raid your own raid.
jtrack3d Jan 19th 2012 4:40PM
LFR as with any change, will change the end-game. That is, some will no longer attempt to raid normal or heroic. So, essentially, some of the potential part-time raiders no longer raid and that's it. Therefore, the number of Normal raid completions should go down as a percentage of players.
Another factor is SWTOR. Face it. I have toons in two guilds. One of those guilds collapsed on 12/20... no one except myself logs in. In my other guild, 2-3 of 19 players are online off-raid nights. On raid nights we still manage, but if things go bad... the SWTOR lovers say... I'll just bail and play SWTOR. Hitting the wall in DS isn't helping there.
But this article is essentially correct. LFR isn't fun for the same reasons as normal.
The Dewd Jan 19th 2012 4:43PM
I was raiding in a 10-man guild doing regular DS (10) and Firelands on our "farm" day to finish up someone's Dragonwrath until my schedule changed up and I couldn't keep going so I bowed out of the raid group. We weren't seriously hardcore by any means but weren't a bunch of slackers. When I stepped out we were stuck on whossname the Tauren boss because we couldn't keep the ship up long enough to get into phase 2 - and the few times we did, we didn't have enough folks up to do much of anything before we wiped. The ship seems to have such a low health pool that anything short of near-perfect execution, especially on the sappers, meant we were all sent flying through the air across the frozen sea. And this is with a group of folks who pretty much tore through the entire front half without much of a problem and only took a week or so to learn Ultraxion.
I've since taken to running LFR - and doing so on multiple toons. It's a cakewalk compared to normals, especially for a (presumably) average player like myself. I still strive to do my best in LFR, of course, but it's not really a challenge for me. Regular DS is out of the question because of my schedule so LFR is all I have available.
Sure, there's some folks who come into LFR and coast, or sneak in with PvP gear in their bags and try to snag some loot before they get booted for low dps, but overall LFR is pretty positive. (Once you get past all the whining and finger pointing and other childish behavior, of course.) It's times like this that I wish Blizz would actually release their numbers because I'd love to know what they're tracking - it sounds like it's a LOT more than just how many people have wiped on each boss each week and total boss kills. It really seems like they're individually tracking players and guilds to make sure that folks aren't getting stuck too long.
Lastly, with regards to the progression issue: I think the best "compromise" they could come up with would be to nerf regular DS to let the folks (like the ones who posted in The Queue today) try to wrap up spine and/or madness before the nerfs - and then nerf heroic in a couple more weeks. If they're thinking about doing 5% a month like they said, they could stagger regular and heroic nerfs every 15 days or so.
B1ue Jan 19th 2012 4:43PM
I really do think that there should be some kind of achievement at least for completing DS on normal or heroic either pre-nerf or with the nerf turned off. Possibly require for the Meta achievement (and introduce a new meta, with the nerf applied, that only rewards a pet instead of the mount). Not that this would apply to me, of course; my raid team is definetely hitting road blocks. But it'd give a real, tangible if fleeting reason to turn off the nerf for those whom prestige is all that really matters. I want them happy too. Who will do the math for me if they all bugger off to Guild Wars 2 or whatever?